The Milwaukee Brewers traveled to St. Louis to say What’s Up to the Cardinals. The Brewers are up. That’s what. After a happy little winning streak the Cardinals are down again after losing two straight to the Crew.
Once again the Cardinals are being exposed by quality opponents.
This is nothing new. But it is notable.
The St. Louis record against teams that were above .500 through Wednesday is 18-32.
And we can make that 20-34 if we include the 60-60 Mets.
I prefer to include the Mets in our accounting because they’ve had a winning record (for all but a few days) since early May. But put the Cardinals in the ring with bad teams, and their record is 41-24.
Here’s a revealing breakdown:
CARDS OFFENSE VS. TEAMS WITH A LOSING RECORD: Hitting .248 and averaging 4.52 runs per game. Cultivated a .324 onbase percentage, .412 slug and posted a .736 OPS. Their batting average with runners in scoring position is .273, with a .793 OPS.
CARDS OFFENSE VS. TEAMS THAT ARE .500 OR BETTER: Hitting .223 and averaging 3.5 runs per game. Pathetic onbase percentage .290, slugging only .366, and have a .656 OPS that’s 80 points less than their OPS vs. losing sides. Batting average with men in scoring position is .238 with a .734 OPS. Huge difference; all of of it.
Using park-and-league adjusted runs created, the Cards are exactly league average offensively in their 65 games against losing teams — and 21 percent below league average offensively in 54 games against opponents .500 or higher.
STL PITCHING VS. TEAMS WITH LOSING RECORDS: Overall 3.51 ERA, with an opponent .644 OPS. Starting-pitching ERA of 3.28. Bullpen ERA of 3.87. Overall fielding-independent ERA 3.83.
STL PITCHING VS. TEAMS .500 OR BETTER: Overall 4.87 ERA and opponent .758 OPS. Starting-pitching ERA, 5.07. Bullpen ERA, 4.60. Overall fielding-independent ERA, 5.02. The overall walk rate by St. Louis pitchers is 11.8 percent when facing .500+ opponents. Once again, huge differences.
The Cardinals are an average team. They beat up on the poor teams. But in turn, they get beaten down by good teams. That makes it difficult to get into an extensive run of sustained success.
Hey, but Milwaukee leaves town after Thursday night’s game at Busch Stadium.
And then the Pittsburgh Pirates come in for the weekend, opening a stretch of nine consecutive games against losing teams. This serving of soft schedule will give the Cardinals a chance to look good, feel good. At least until they start playing the quality teams again. The No. 2 wild card remains in play. At this point, it’s the only prize available to claim. The Brewers came to town to remind us of that.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.
The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is available at 590thefan.com …
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* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
