Bernie’s Redbird Review: As Long As The Cardinals Can Keep Winning, Let’s Try To Enjoy It.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The audacious Cardinals are threatening to have a good season. Look at them now, boldly trying to overcome their ignominious start to 2024.

Beating good teams. Beating bad teams. Winning one-run games. Winning at home. Winning with offense, winning with starting pitching, winning with defensive panache, winning with an elite bullpen security force. Winning three consecutive series. Winning enough to reduce the deficit in the standings.

The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 games, a stretch that includes a 5-1 mark on a homestand that brought in visitors from Boston and Baltimore for the first six of nine total games.

So much for the travelers from the east coast. Next up is an old-fashioned midwest thang, as the Cardinals brace for a weekend invasion by the Chicago Cubs and their blue-costumed fans.

Winning is fun. But I know what you’re thinking: the Cardinals are 23-26, with a lot of bad juju packed into the first two months, and some scary problems remain. Indeed. It’s difficult to have confidence in a unit that is bereft of starting-pitching depth and can’t even come up with one starter after losing Steven Matz to the IL.

So how do we know if the recent success will last?

We don’t.

There are reasons for skepticism. But try to enjoy the winning while it lasts. Maybe it’s a fluke or a tease … a temporary buzz that soon will fade and expire. Or perhaps this is a gateway to a more positive season that leads to nice things like a winning record and postseason contention.

We just don’t know. But as long as this team is doing well and doing it with an entertaining style, take a break from the incessant caterwauling over the owner, the manager, the president of baseball operations, or other grievance-department items.

If the Cardinals relapse and turn into losers again, you can just go back on “X” and hit the repost button to refresh your demands to fire everyone. You can squawk for the Dewitts to sell the franchise.

If the Cardinals start falling apart again, you can go back to typing in the names of Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Lane Thomas, Richie Palacios, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, Jordan Hicks, etc. You can fib and insist that you were adamantly opposed to trading Tyler O’Neill and letting Jack Flaherty walk as a free agent. You can roar on and on about Jordan Montgomery.

All of this evergreen material is still waiting for you. It will be there to reheat and rehash if the Cardinals flop. But you can put it on hold for now. With the Cardinals playing their best ball of the season, it’s OK to like what you’re seeing. Really, it’s perfectly acceptable.

So give your blood pressure a chance to cool down. Laugh at the way Brendan Donovan surfed on home against the Orioles on Wednesday, diving into the dirt to score a run and give the Cards the lead on his mad-man spree around the bases.

The Cardinals have 113 games left on the schedule.

To go the distance, we must pace ourselves to leave plenty of rage in the tank.

Let’s get to The Review:

THE ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals have more than held their own since Willson Contreras went on the IL, going 8-5 in 13 games … STL’s success against Boston and Baltimore on the homestand has improved the Cardinals’ Busch Stadium record to 11-12. They were 6-11 at home before opening the current home stay … The Cardinals are up to .500 (6-6) in one-run games … the Redbirds are 6-1 in their last seven games against teams that currently possess a winning record … since last September the Cardinals went 5-1 against the Orioles in the teams’ two series … by winning three straight series the Cardinals have won 50 percent of their 16 series played so far, going 8-8. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they’re 3-13 in the final game of a series this season. Had they won a few more of those their record would have a different look.

STATE OF THE OFFENSE: During their 8-2 stretch the Cardinals have averaged 5.7 runs per game, hit .280, finessed a .359 onbase percentage and slugged .804. The pummeling includes 18 doubles and 13 homers, and the Redbirds have swiped nine bases in 10 attempts. Their batting average with runners in scoring position over the last 10 games is .276. Much better than before.

PASSING THE TORCH TO A NEW GENERATION: I worked up a lengthy note on this topic earlier in the week. But I think it’s important and worthy of an update.

Eight Cardinals hitters have played 319 major-league games or fewer during their careers. The eight are Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Michael Siani and Pedro Pages.

Six of the eight are 25 or younger. Half are 24 or younger. The average age of the eight hitters is 24.6 years.

OK. So in 262 plate appearances during the 8-2 outbreak these eight hitters batted .304 with a .386 OBP, and .502 slug. They had 69 hits, 31 walks, 10 homers, and 15 doubles. They teamed for 41 of the team’s 50 RBIs and scored 40 runs. And the eight knocked home 29 runs when batting with runners in scoring position.

I firmly believe it’s up to the younger crew to carry this offense. They’re heading into their prime years. Paul Goldschmidt will be 37 by season’s end, and Nolan Arenado is 33. Both can help this team generate and score runs. But it’s just at a different level now.

In the last 10 games the Cardinals got a combined three homers. 420 slugging percentage and seven RBIs from Goldschmidt and Arenado.

JUST SAY NO TO THE O’S: In sweeping the Orioles, nine St. Louis pitchers allowed two earned runs in 27 innings for an 0.67 ERA. Baltimore’s hitters batted .147 with a .200 slugging percentage and had only three extra-base hits in 104 plate appearances.

Cards starters Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson allowed only one earned run in 15 and ⅔ innings to combine for an 0.57 ERA in the series, and the STL bullpen locked in the three victories by giving up one earned runs in 11 and ⅓ innings for a 0.79 ERA.

Before coming to town the Orioles were averaging 5.1 runs per game, slugging .446 and had taken the bazooka to opposing pitchers for 68 home runs in 44 games.

MORE PRAISE FOR THE BULLPEN: All three games with the Orioles could have gone the other way. A bullpen blow-up or two, and we’d be talking about a different outcome and expressing concern. But with the outcome of the game on the line, the Cardinal relievers are just about as good as it gets.

* STL relievers have a 2.08 ERA in save situations.

* STL relievers have a 2.93 ERA from the start of the seventh inning through the end of the game. That ranks third overall and second in the NL.

* Manager Oli Marmol has done an excellent job of cultivating additional relievers to expand his team’s late-innings bullpen capability. Here’s just a quick and easy list of individual earned-run averages for STL relievers from the seventh-inning on:

Ryan Helsley, 0.90
JoJo Romero, 1.52
Andrew Kittredge, 2.45
John King, 2.79
Ryan Fernandez, 2.77
Matthew Liberatore, 0.00
Chris Roycroft, 1.80

The overall late-innings ERA was inflated by subpar performances by Giovanny Gallegos (18.69 ERA) and Andre Pallante (4.91). But Gio is on the IL with a shoulder ailment, and Pallante is resetting at Triple A Memphis.

But consider this: from the start of the seventh until the end of the game, Helsley, Romero, Kittredge, Fernandez, Liberatore, King and Roycroft have collectively allowed 11 earned runs in 62 innings for a superb 1.59 ERA.

That’s seven relievers. It’s become a deeper bullpen. And Kyle Leahy is earning trust, so we soon could be talking about eight relievers.

The results show us all we need to know: the Cardinals are 14-2 this season when leading a game after six innings, 21-1 when leading through seven innings, and 21-0 when leading through eight.

The front office did a terrific job of upgrading the bullpen, and Marmol is doing an excellent job of running the bullpen. I’m entertained by the people who claim otherwise. The St. Louis bullpen ranks No. 8 in the majors in Win Probability Added. Last season the Cardinal relievers ranked 22nd in WPA. This season the Cardinals have a 77 percent save rate that’s the best in the NL and second overall; last season their 59% save rate was 14th among 15 NL teams and 24th overall. But let us keep talking about how Marmol has no idea what he’s doing with the bullpen.

STANDINGS CHECK: The Cardinals still have a losing record (23-26) but they’re made some headway. They were dumped to nine games under .500 (15-24) after losing at Milwaukee on May 11. They’re three under .500 now.

That has improved their position in the standings. After that May 11 loss to Milwaukee the Cardinals trailed the first-place Brewers by 9 games and were 7 and ½ behind the second-place Cubs. But in going 8-2 in the last 10 games, St. Louis is now five behind Milwaukee and 3 and ½ in back of Chicago. The Cards have moved into third place in the NL Central; they’re a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh and three games above last-place Cincinnati.

And the Redbirds are 1 and ½ games behind San Diego for the NL’s third wild-card coupon. Just above the Cardinals are Arizona and San Francisco at 1.0 games out of the third WC spot.

THE ST. LOUIS OUTFIELD: This chronically problematic area has been a source of significant concern and frustration over the last two-plus seasons. But the St. Louis outfielders have done their part to elevate the team to an 8-2 record over the last 10 games. And that’s all it is – 10 games – but they’re tracking well.

Since May 12 Cardinals outfielders have combined for a .750 OPS that ranks eighth in the majors over that time. What’s the big deal about a .750 OPS? It’s not a big deal … but with offense down in the majors this season, and that .750 OPS is 51 points above the overall MLB rate in OPS (.699) in 2024.

Cards outfielders did smashingly well in their performance with runners in scoring position over the 8-2 hot streak, batting .333 with a .484 onbase percentage and .583 slug.

UPDATED PLAYOFF ODDS: On Thursday morning I checked the latest playoff probabilities at FanGraphs. I was in a curious mood. The Cardinals’ 8-2 run has resulted in a shift in their postseason outlook.

– Chances of winning the division: 3.4 percent on May 11 and 11.9% now.

– To win a wild–card spot: 7.1 percent on May 11, and 13.8% now.

– To make the postseason: 10.4% percent on May 11 and 25.8% now.

The Cardinals still have a lot of work to do. Their recent success is impressive, but the long season has the final say in what’s for real, and what’s a fake. But at least over the last 10 games the Cardinals moved up instead of continuing to sink.

JUST THE FACTS

* For the month of May, Nolan Gorman has a .389 onbase percentage, .558 slug and is 70 percent league average offensively per wRC+. That wRC+ puts him 11th among 111 National League hitters that have at least 50 plate appearances this month.

* Gorman ranks second among MLB hitters with a launch-angle sweet-spot percentage of 47.7 percent. The only hitter above him is Milwaukee’s Jake Bauers at 48.3 percent. Translation: Hit ball far.

* Masyn Winn is hitting .354 with a .373 onbase percentage and .583 slug since May 5. The stretch includes five doubles, two homers and seven RBIs.

* Brendan Donovan is getting back in form. Instead of trying to hit home runs, he’s hitting for average and getting on base at a high rate. During the team’s 8-2 run Donovan is batting .300 with a .391 onbase percentage. His numbers for the season are disappointing but he’s made progress.

* The Cardinals have homered in 10 straight games and gone deep 13 of their last 14 games.

* The Cardinals have been charged with an error in their last nine games. Clean it up.

* Jordan Montgomery has a 4.98 in six starts for the Diamondbacks. And he has a 6.33 ERA in four starts since facing his old pals the Cardinals at Busch Stadium on April 24.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream it live or access the show podcast on 590thefan.com or through the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.