Bernie: Cardinals, Cubs, And The Fans Dressed In Red Or Blue. Let’s Do This Again.

The Cardinals and Cubs renew their rivalry this weekend at Busch Stadium, and it’s about damn time.

Because of a quirky and nonsensical schedule, the teams haven’t seen much of each other in regular-season baseball engagements.

Consider:

* Since Aug. 1 of last the Cardinals have played 104 regular-season games – and none involved the Cubs. Over that time the Cardinals have played 19 different teams but you won’t find the Cubs on that list.

* Though the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry is a celebrated baseball classic, since Aug. 1 of last year the Cardinals have had 12 total games against Baltimore and Oakland … but no games against the Cubs. The Redbirds have hooked up for 16 total games against the NY Mets and San Diego … and none against the Cubs.

* Since the end of July 2023, the Cardinals have played 28 games against NL Central teams including 10 vs. the Brewers. Number of games against the Cubs: ZERO.

The Cardinals have played teams based in the South, the East, the West, and the North. They’ve played teams based along the Atlantic seaboard, Southern California, Northern California, and the Mountain time zone … but haven’t played a game against the team that’s up the road via I-55.

The last time the Cardinals and Cubs confronted each other on a regular-season baseball diamond, the managerial battle had Vern Rapp going against Herman Franks. OK, I just made that up. The last time that happened was 1979.

But yeah, it sure has been a while since the Cubbies and Redbirds played some real baseball against each other. Fun times this weekend.

As the rivals and their fans reconvene, the Cardinals lurk three games behind the second-place Cubs in the NL Central. The Cardinals are suddenly hitting. The Cubs have stopped hitting. The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10. The Cubs have lost seven of their last 10.

For Cardinal fans, here’s what you should know about the 2024 Cubs:

1. Craig Counsell manages the Cubs now, defecting from the Brewers for a five-year, $40 million contract.

This was an unpopular move up in the Badger State.

“If you are a member of a community north of Kenosha, you hate the Cubs,” Wisconsin-based blogger Greg Markle wrote. “If you are in Wisconsin and don’t hate the Cubs, then you are likely a sad Illinois transplant clogging up our roads, our lakes, our restaurants, and our lives—but we still appreciate all the money you spend here.

“The feelings around the Cubs aren’t as much hate as a righteous sense of ethical superiority. The Cubs represent the worst of sports—a very bad franchise with too much money to be as cheap as they are, no soul, and no sense of fair play. Their fans are often tone-deaf, obnoxious blowhards who never shut up. But we still appreciate the rivalry—it is a lot of fun.”

2. The Cubs have excellent starting pitching. The North Siders rank eighth in the majors with a 3.38 starting-pitching ERA. Free-agent recruit Shota Imanaga is a new sensation, leading MLB starters with a preposterous 0.84 ERA. The top three Cubs starters – Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon – have combined for a 1.48 ERA. Last year’s ace, Justin Steele, is settling back in after missing more than a month with a strained hamstring. Steele has gotten knocked around in his last three starts (8.44 ERA) but should be fine. Impressive rookie Ben Brown has a 2.35 ERA in five starts. The longtime veteran Kyle Hendricks was moved to the bullpen after getting blasted for a 10.57 ERA in seven starts.

3. The Cubs are in an ice-age slump offensively. In the last 25 games, Chicago has averaged 3.1 runs, batted .199 with a .608 OPS and hit .179 with runners in scoring position. Per wRC+, the Cubs are 22 percent below league average offensively in the last 25. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in 15 of the 25 games and have been shut out five times. Despite having the benefit of a superb group of starting pitchers that have crafted a 2.98 ERA since April 27, the Cubs are 10-15.

4. The Chicago bullpen is shaky.

This season the Cubs have …

* Lost eight games after having the lead or being tied through five innings.

* Lost five times after being in the lead or tied after six innings.

* Lost six games when ahead or tied through seven innings.

* Lost five times when leading or tied through eight innings.

The Cubs have blown nine saves in 21 opportunities for a 57 percent save rate that ranks 11th among 15 NL bullpens. The calamities include the squandering of an eight-run lead in a stunning 9-8 loss to the Padres on April 8. The planned closer, Adbert Alzolay, is on the IL with a strained forearm.

5. Injuries have been a major problem. The list is incredibly long, so I’ll just include the most notable Cubs in terms of days missed. When you see the + sign, it means the player is still on the IL.

OF Seya Suzuki, 25
OF Cody Bellinger, 13
SS Dansby Swanson, 12
3B Patrick Wisdom, 21
INF Nico Hoerner missed a week.

SP Justin Steele, 38
SP Kyle Hendricks, 19
SP Jameson Taillon, 21
SP Jordan Wicks, 26+
RP Drew Smyly, 32+
RP Keegan Thompson, 12+
RP Adbert Alzolay, 11+

Competing without Swanson, Bellinger, Suzuki or Hoerner for various periods of time was detrimental to the offense. But they’re all back now and the Cubs are still struggling offensively.

It’s interesting how the Cubs can find replacements for so many injured starting pitchers – and the Cardinals have been unable to cover one open spot in the rotation left open since Steven Matz was injured on April 30.

6. The Cubs infield is costing the team runs. Overall the Cubs rank 24th in the majors with minus 9 defensive runs saved. But don’t blame an outfield that has played well defensively. But Chicago infielders are collectively minus 14 in defensive runs saved. Add in the catchers and that total increased to minus 16.

7. Cubs catchers are failing offensively. Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya have combined for a .179 average, .221 onbase percentage and .280 slug for a .501 OPS. In May, the Chicago catchers are collectively hitting .132 with a .410 OPS – and are 82 percent below league average offensively per wRC+.

8. Young left-handed slugger Michael Busch has leveled off. The Cubs made a nice pickup in acquiring the first baseman from the Dodgers. Through April 20, Busch was hitting .328 with a .656 slugging percentage and 1.062 OPS and had six homers and 15 RBIs. But in his last 29 games Busch is hitting .169 with a .281 slug and .543 OPS and has one homer in 89 at-bats. Busch has a 41 percent strikeout rate in his last 125 plate appearances.

9. The Cubs are loaded with prospects. Going into the season, MLB Pipeline ranked the Cubs as the No. 2 farm system in the majors. Baltimore was No. 1. This makes manager Counsell very happy.

“I think the great thing that the Cubs have going on right now, is that there’s a lot of kids you can talk about,” Counsell said before the season. “And that’s fun, because they’re all on this journey to try to become guys. And some of them will. Some of them won’t. But, there’s enough of them that the odds are really in our favor that there’s going to be that guy. And our job is to help all of them and take part in that journey.”

The Cardinals’ farm system was rated No. 23 by MLB Pipeline.

10. Overview: Let’s compare the Cardinals and Cubs. Which teams have the advantage in the most relevant performance categories? 

Offense: slight edge to the Cubs for the season to date, but the Cardinals have actually been a much better offense during the month of May. This month the Cards are nine percent above league average offensively (per wRC+) and the Cubs are 15 percent below average. That’s a difference of 24 percent in favor of the Cardinals. But this “debate” hasn’t been settled. The Cubs figure to improve offensively and the Cardinals will have to prove that their recent offensive frenzy was more than just a lark.

Starting Pitching: Big advantage, Cubs. Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have combined for a 3.48 ERA, but the team’s other starters have burdened the team with a 6.23 ERA. The Cardinals are 16-12 when Gray-Gibson-Lynn start a game – and 7-14 in games handled by starters Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.

Bullpen: Big advantage, Cardinals. Led by Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge, St. Louis relievers have been masterful during the final three-plus innings of games and have a 77 percent save rate that ranks No. 1 in the NL and is 20 percent better than Chicago’s save rate.

Defense: Big advantage, Cardinals. STL is tied for third in the NL with 13 defensive runs saved, and the Cubs are 12th with a below-average minus nine DRS.

Baserunning: Moderate edge, Cardinals. The Cubs have lost more outs on the bases (23) than any team in the majors. And they’ve been thrown out more times at home plate (9) than any MLB team. St. Louis ranks second in the NL with 68 bases taken. The Cubs have a 30-25 lead in stolen bases but the Cardinals have a better success rate than the Cubs when trying to steal.

Managing: Established advantage, Cubs. Counsell has been on the short list of the best major-league managers for the last seven-plus seasons, and Oli Marmol is in his third season of managing the Cardinals. Marmol was praised in 2022, shredded in 2023 and has done a much better job than he’s been given credit for in 2024.

Cardinals fans are still raging over 2023 and their anger has been pretty much nonstop in 2024. During the team’s slow start this season the fan base has shoveled a disproportionate amount of blame on Marmol.

Marmol has dramatically improved his team’s defense, baserunning and small-ball fundamentals, is doing a superb job of running the bullpen, has cultivated additional relief-pitcher sources to deepen the bullpen and make it even stronger. He kept trying different lineup combinations that led to a jump start offensively. Marmol has three good starters at his disposal, and the front office is 100 percent responsible for the team’s embarrassing shortage of starting-pitching depth. The players fully support their manager. And anyone who blames Marmol for the underwhelming offense provided by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado is cuckoo.

Front office: Cubs.

Thanks for reading and please remember what Memorial Day is all about …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream it live or access the show podcast on 590thefan.com or through the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.

Please follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz and on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.