Bernie’s Redbird Review: After a 5-2 Homestand, Can The Cardinals Continue Their Momentum?

Happy Friday and welcome to The Redbird Review. Turn on the air conditioning, put ice and your favorite liquid in a glass, and listen to Miles Davis. (I’m starting with Kind of Blue.) That should help keep ya cool on a hot St. Louis weekend in the summertime.

Let’s talk about Cardinals baseball … 

The Cardinals have re-emerged from the murk. Reappearing after disappearing. Winning again instead of losing again … and again … and again.

The Cards have just completed a 5-2 homestand that’s part of a modest but positive 12-7 winning trend.

It’s been a strange trip for the Redbirds in 2021.

After beating Milwaukee on May 13 the Cardinals had a 23-15 record, were nesting in first place, and led the Brewers by 3 games.

Over the next 45 days the Cardinals won only 14 of 40 games, slipping to 37-41 on the season, tumbling into fourth place, and looking up at the first-place Brewers.

In a little more than six weeks the Cardinals went from being 3 games ahead of the Brewers to sliding to 8 games behind the Crew. The stunning 11-game swing in the standings left the Cardinals on the periphery, fading from view. The deficit would eventually swell to 10 games.

After losing three of four games to the sad-sack Pirates at Busch Stadium in late June, the Cardinals had won only three of their previous 13 series. During the 40-game flogging their fragmented STL starting rotation was beaten down for a 5.50 ERA, and the monotonous offense batted .218 and averaged a puny 3.3 runs per contest.

After the 14-26 crash the Cardinals were given a 2.7 percent chance of making the postseason by the FanGraphs projection model.

But since June 28 the Cardinals have won 12 of 19 games and are 4-1-1 in their last six series. The progress is there; after the 5-2 homestand against the Giants and Cubs the Cardinals have pruned Milwaukee’s lead to 7 games.

That’s still a burdensome position, yes — but preferable to being down by 10. The needle is slow to move; as of Friday morning FanGraphs lists the Cardinals with a 4.1% shot of making the playoffs.

So why have the Cardinals moved from the underground to daylight by winning 12 of their last 19?

➜ The rotation has the best ERA in the majors, 2.34, since June 28. That covers the 19-game uptick.

➜ The offense is frustratingly inconsistent — but it is also improving. During the current 19-game stretch the Cardinals have averaged 4.4 runs and batted .260 with a .318 onbase percentage and .423 slug. A .331 average with runners in scoring position has fueled the acceleration.

➜ The defense has played exceptionally well; over the last two-plus weeks St. Louis has moved from 10th to eighth (overall) in defensive runs saved.

The Cardinals must get stronger and keep going; they can’t break down again. And turning the schedule into a treadmill won’t get them anywhere.

There are at least two reasons for a fresh outlook; starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas continue to rehab their injuries without mishap. If they return soon to provide help, it will lift the team morale.

This weekend’s series at Cincinnati is definitely a test, and I’m curious to see how it goes for the visitors. The Reds are 1-5 with a minus 26 run differential since the All-Star break; all six games were at home. The Reds are 24-25 this season at Great American Ball Park, and their bullpen has relapsed with a 7.48 ERA over the last six games.

Cincinnati’s top hitting force, Nicholas Castellanos, will miss the series because of a microfracture in his right wrist. (He was hit by a pitch by Milwaukee last Friday.

But the Cardinals are 21-28 on the road this season, have a losing record (18-19) against NL Central foes and had lost 13 of their last 16 games inside the division until winning three of four from the Cubs this week.

The listed pitching probables seemingly favor the Reds: Wade LeBlanc vs. Tyler Mahle on Friday; Jake Woodford vs. Luis Castillo on Saturday; Johan Oviedo vs. Sonny Gray on Sunday. And the Cardinals have their own bullpen issues — as indicated by a 6.04 reliever ERA in July.

The Cardinals (49-48) have pulled themselves above .500, but that means virtually nothing unless they can continue to rise. During times when his Cardinals struggled to win on a consistent basis, manager Tony La Russa declined to assess their postseason chances. His policy at this time of the year: get to 10 games over .500, or there isn’t much to talk about.

After a revitalizing homestand the Cardinals are believing in themselves again. Now it’s onto Ohio for two stops: three games in Hamilton County, and two in Cuyahoga County. Will the STL momentum last through Cincinnati and Cleveland? Only 64 games to go.

THE BEST OF THE HOMESTAND

1) Dylan Carlson recharged: in the seven games the rookie D.C. whopped his way to five doubles, two homers, seven RBI, four runs and a 1.085 OPS.

2) Paul Goldschmidt’s quiet strength: It generates loud noises. Goldy had a Busch Bash, with a seven-game batting average of .321 to go with his three homers, five RBI, four runs, .406 OBP, .679 slug, and 1.085 OPS.

3) Harrison Bader, unleashed: He went 10 for 24 (.417), reached base on 46 percent of his plate appearances, slugged .500, ran around the outfield making leaping and diving catches like a frisbee dog. Bader went 3 for 6 with a double and three RBIs when batting with runners in scoring position. Best in show. 

4) Harrison Bader’s hair, and which can best be described (sorta) in a tribute by the Cowsills from their 1968 hit song:

I want it long, straight, curly, fuzzy

Snaggy, shaggy, ratsy, matsy

Oily, greasy, fleecy

Shining, gleaming, streaming

Flaxen, waxen

Knotted, polka-dotted

Twisted, beaded, braided

Powdered, flowered, and confettied

Bangled, tangled, spangled, and spaghettied!

5) Stingy starting pitching: seven games, 40.2 innings, 2.21 ERA. Kwang Hyun Kim and Adam Wainwright combined for a 2.52 ERA in their four starts. Wade LeBlanc, Jake Woodford and Johan Oviedo handled the other three starts and combined for a 1.72 ERA. The Giants and Cubs batted only .201 with a .562 OPS against St. Louis starters. And the Giants and Cubs walked ONLY six times in 158 plate appearances against Waino’s gang.

6) Let’s play Pauly Ball: Shortstop Paul DeJong batted .350 with a .909 OPS over the two series. He homered and drove in five runs. From the start of the season through June, DeJong batted .169, with a .354 slug and .625 OPS. In July he’s batting .319 with a .553 slug and .945 OPS. DeJong is third in WAR among NL shortstops this month.

7) A collection of Gold Glove plays: too many to mention. But the run-saving patrol was alert, active and acrobatic. In particular a tip of the cap to third baseman Nolan Arenado, Bader (CF), Tyler O’Neill (LF), Carlson (RF) and middle-infielder Edmundo Sosa.

8) Arenado got some rest, then heated up: in the final three games of the homestand, all against the Cubs, ‘Nado had two homers and drove in three. Manager Mike Shildt’s decision to rest a weary Arenado for Monday’s game was an excellent call.

9) Lefty T.J. McFarland has found an increasingly valuable role in the bullpen. He’s earned trust. If McFarland can be effective going forward, the Cards can turn to him for favorable matchups.

A FEW THINGS THAT WEREN’T SO GREAT… 

* Tyler O’Neill had 11 strikeouts and no walks in 30 plate appearances during the homestand. That’s a strikeout rate of 36.7%. Bro’Neill has one homer and a .391 slugging percentage for July. O’Neill was putting together a consistent season but is currently experiencing a power shortage. In his last 122 plate appearances (since June 11) O’Neill is slugging .352 with one homer and a .680 OPS. He’s gotta figure something out and get grooved again. In his last eight games O’Neill has struck out 13 times in 35 plate appearances; that’s 37.1%.

* The bullpen had a 5.01 ERA in 23.1 innings. St. Louis relievers have a 6.04 ERA this month.

* Tommy Edman had some good moments on the homestand. But Shildt continues to put Edman in prime lineup spots against RH pitchers. It’s ludicrous. Since June 1 Edman has logged 61 plate appearances at leadoff, and 47 PA at the No. 6 spot when facing RH. The results: .176 average, .222 OBP, .225 slug, .448 OPS. As of late Shildt has kept Edman out of the leadoff spot unless the other side starts a LH pitcher. But what’s the point of putting Edman sixth in the lineup against RH pitching? In the 47 recent plate appearances batting 6th vs. RHP, Edman has batted .143 with a .234 OBP and .225 slug. That’s a .425 OPS. Ludicrous.

* Yadier Molina batted .185 on the homestand, with one RBI. But that RBI was a biggie; it won Wednesday’s game in the bottom of the 10th. Molina entered June with a .292 average, .526 slug and .847 OPS. Since then, in 146 plate appearances, he’s batting .207 with a .252 slug and .519 OPS.

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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+ All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference/Stathead, Bill James Online, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.