Bernie’s Redbird Review: Let’s Take A Deep Dive Into A Dull Offense

Welcome To The Redbird Review

The state of the Cardinals offense was summed up rather well, if not intentionally, by the exasperated manager Mike Shildt following Thursday’s humdrum 4-0 loss to Atlanta. 

“I’d rather not alibi the fact that we’ve haven’t been as consistent,” he said in a response to a good question from Katie Woo of The Athletic. “But, you know, I don’t know what more to really tell you. Look, if I had a real clear answer to it, um, with the 30-something years of baseball I’ve been in, I’d be doing it. And our staff. And, um, our players. 

“You know, I can just tell you our preparation and approach is there. You know, we’d love to have more results. I’m sure everyone that’s on our club would like that. Um, but, you know, I don’t know what else you can expect me to do.” 

After a follow-up question by Woo, Shildt praised Atlanta starting pitcher Charlie Morton and Braves relievers Luke Jackson and Will Smith. The threesome combined to shut out the dormant Cardinals on three hits. Earlier in the postgame video conference, Shildt had cited the strong pitching faced by his team during the series against Miami.

Interesting.

I guess we’re supposed to give the Cardinals a pass when these hard-working fellers encounter quality pitching? 

“I can’t sit here and have my head in the sand,” Shildt said. “We’ve got what we have, we feel like we’re using it the best we can. You know, it’s really a matter of, I mean the guy (Morton) was good tonight. He threw a one-hitter, you know, a no-hitter into the seventh. 

“I mean, you know, they brought in a guy that’s, you know, really good out of the bullpen. Um, you know, Jackson’s an effective guy and Smith I believe has made an All-Star club or two. That’s part of it. 

“I mean, Morton has pitched in the playoffs and pitched well in big games. So I, you know, sometimes you really do have to say the other team has been effective as well.” 

Before Thursday’s start Morton had a 4.50 for the season and a 4.75 ERA in his last 11 starts. Jackson has been very strong, with a 1.05 ERA for the season and no runs allowed in 11.2 innings since May 12. Will Smith had a 4.39 ERA in 26.2 innings this season before facing the Cardinals. 

The spin doesn’t work.

— After taking a 5-1 lead over the Cubs through the top of the fifth inning a week ago at Wrigley Field, the Cardinals have scored nine runs in their last 57 innings with a .168 batting average, three homers, 47 strikeouts and 12 walks. 

— Through their first 15 games in June the Cardinals are batting .217 and averaging 2.9 runs per game, and their 44 runs scored is dead last among the 30 MLB teams. They’re also last in the majors this month in slugging percentage (.325), OPS (.609) and are tied for last with 10 homers. STL hitters have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.7%) and 10th-worst walk rate in June. 

— This season the Cardinals have scored 3 or fewer runs in 36 of their 69 games; that’s 52 percent. Only four MLB teams have scored 3 or less more often than the Cardinals. The STL record in the 36 games: 9-27. 

— Through Thursday MLB teams are averaging 4.41 runs per game. The Cardinals are averaging 4.01 runs overall, and only 3.5 runs in their last 31 games. 

— The Cardinals are the most notable team in the majors for coming up so short offensively in so many games. This: St. Louis has scored 4 runs or less in a staggering 65.2 percent of their 69 games this season. Here are the bottom three teams in the majors with the most games or 4-or-fewer runs: Baltimore 46, Pittsburgh 46, St. Louis 45. The Orioles and Pirates did not acquire Nolan Arenado last offseason. The Orioles and Pirates do not have Tyler O’Neill in their lineup, slugging .603 and homering every 11.6 at-bats. 

No worries. Shildt is here to reassure us that the effort is there, the right approach is there, the grit is there — and the scratching and the clawing, and leaving the hearts on the field, and battling their tails off … yeah, all of that too. But the manager did acknowledge a lack of consistency. 

It’s just that those gosh-durned pitchers out there are just so dadgum good … 

So what do you expect the Cardinals and their manager to do about it, huh? 

Not much, apparently.

It’s difficult to fix a serious problem when day after day the manager denies that the problem even exists.

In today’s Redbird Review, let’s explore some of the reasons that explain why the 35-34 Cardinals are middling through the season with a low-grade offense.

In no particular order: 

1) The Cardinals are awful vs. righthanded pitching. They rank 27th in the majors in batting average (.222) and OPS (.661) and are 29th in onbase percentage (.293) against RHP. 

This is a big problem because the Cardinals have the most plate appearances (2,086) by a MLB team against RH pitching this season. 

They’ve taken the fewest number of PAs (449) against lefthanded pitching. This is a shame, because the Cardinals are very good vs. lefties, ranking among the top 10 teams in batting average, OBP, slugging, and walk rate.

The front office declined to add a LH batter to the roster last offseason — specifically a LH hitter that mashes RH pitching. And the team is paying for that; 82.3 percent of the plate appearances have come against RH pitching so far this year. 

2) The front office needed to find more good dudes. More good dudes (as our friend Boog Sciambi would say) as in more good hitters. This season the Cardinals have invested 495 plate appearances in four position players that have combined for a .160 batting average, .281 OBP, .264 slugging percentage, and .544 OPS — to go with a strikeout rate of 28.2 percent. The four are Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, Justin Williams and Lane Thomas. 

3) The alarming decline in onbase percentage: If you aren’t booming with power, you can compensate for it, at least to some extent, by getting on base at a frequent rate to set up plentiful RBI opportunities. 

That ain’t happening. The Cardinals rank 24th in the majors with a .300 OBP. It’s a combination of a low batting average (.228, ranking 28th) and a drop in walk rate. The current 8% walk rate ranks 25th. 

The .300 OBP would be the 8th lowest by a Cardinal team in a season since 1900. That’s 122 seasons of ball. And the current walk rate would be the 16th lowest by a Cardinal team in the 60 seasons since the NL expanded in 1962. 

Yes, OBP is down on an MLB-wide level this season. But even with that, this is one of the poorest OBP teams in the majors for 2021. The Cardinals are hitting 10 points lower than the MLB average (.238) and are walking at a pace that’s about 2 percent under the MLB rate. 

4) The power is down, down, down. And that’s really something considering that O’Neill is slugging .664 over his last 52 games. Earlier I told you that the Cardinals have the poorest slugging percentage — and are tied for the fewest homers — in MLB for June. But the problem goes deeper than that; only three MLB teams have fewer homers than St. Louis (23) since May 16. And only two teams have a lower slugging percentage (.353) since May 16. And that stretch covers the last 29 games, with St. Louis averaging only 3.4 runs and winning just 12 times.

There’s more to this … 

5) The three-run homers are vanishing, replaced by solo shots. In the 29 games from the start of the season through May 3 the Cardinals clubbed eight three-run home runs, 11 two-run homers, plus a grand slam. But over the last 40 games, the Cards have only ONE three-run homer, 12 two-run homers, and no grand slams. 

Or to put it another way: in their first 29 games, 45% of the Cards home runs were solo shots. But in the last 40 games, 65% of their HRs were solo homers. That’s another reason why getting runners on base is so important for an offense. And wait … I have more… 

6) The Cardinals aren’t doing the heavy damage with runners on base. In the first two months the Cardinals slugged .743 with men on. They also hit 12 homers with runners on base, tied for 4th in the majors over that time, homering every 22.5 at-bats. 

It’s a much different result so far in June. With runners on, the Cardinals have only two homers in 200 at-bats. Yes. That’s one every 100 at-bats. And their slugging percentage with men on (.664) ranks 28th in MLB for June. 

As for runners in scoring position: 

• April-May: 32 homers with RISP, or one every 21.2 at-bats. Plus a .732 slugging percentage. 
• June: Just 1 homer in 109 at-bats with RISP, plus a low .349 slug. 

7) Troubles at the top of the lineup. Tommy Edman has served as the leadoff hitter in 66 of the Cards’ 69 games.The Cardinals are tied with Arizona for the worst leadoff OBP (.311) in the National League. They are 14th, just ahead of Arizona, with a leadoff OPS of .698. 

In his first 34 games Edman had a .358 OBP and .771 OPS.

In his last 33 games, Edman has a .253 OBP and .596 OPS. 

As for the No. 2 hole: Dylan Carlson has been there for 46 games; next is Paul Goldschmidt with 21. Among NL teams, the St. Louis lineup spot is 13th in OBP (.315), 14th in slugging (.358) and last in OPS (.673.) 

It’s better at the No. 3 spot, which has featured Goldschmidt for 45 games and Arenado for 21. But even then we’re looking at a below-average performance when measured against other National League lineups. The St. Louis No. 3 spot ranks 12th in OBP, ninth in slugging, and ninth in OPS. 

8) Arenado’s unexpectedly severe slump: He’s definitely cooled down, to say the least. The recent numbers are stark. Through May 18, Arenado was batting .307 with a .362 OBP and .583 slug for a .929 OPS. He also had 30 RBIs and 24 extra-base hits including 10 homers. 

Nado did all of that on 177 plate appearances. But in 104 plate appearances since May 19, Arenado is hitting .206 with a .240 OBP, .340 slug and .581 OPS. He has only nine extra-base hits (two for homers) and 14 RBIS. 

Among 81 MLB hitters that have 100+ plate appearances since May 19, Arenado ranks 80th in OPS, 75th in slugging, 75th in batting average and 78th in OBP. His 14 RBIs are tied for 34th. Using the park-and-league adjusted runs created metric, Arenado is 42 percent below league average offensively since May 19. Among hitters with at least 100 PA, only Eric Hosmer has done more poorly over that time; he’s 58% below average.

This will change for Arenado. He’ll crank it up again. But we should also look at what’s been going on around him. The 5th spot in the lineup wasn’t very good until O’Neill was moved there recently, and that should help. That said, as a group St. Louis No. 5 hitters are batting .204 with a .267 OBP, .381 slug and .647 OPS. The players that have started the most games in the fifth slot this season are Yadier Molina (22) and Paul DeJong (18.) 

8a) Goldschmidt isn’t having a Goldy-caliber year. No one should expect Goldy to match or exceed his Arizona hitting profile; he’s in his age 33 season. That said, he’d be the first to volunteer the need for him to do more offensively. Though he’s definitely heated up in June (.854 OPS), the season stats are 3 percent above the league average in adjusted runs created. Through his first 67 games Goldschmidt is batting .248 with a .313 OBP and .407 slug. 

Even with an emerging O’Neill banging away, it’s difficult to see how the Cardinals can ignite offensively unless Arenado and Goldschmidt are leading the charge. 

9) Chase Rate. Not great. According to FanGraphs data the Cardinals are hacking at too many pitches outside of the strike zone. Their chase rate of 32% is fourth worst among NL teams, and it’s gone up (33.3%) this month. The other growing issue — in June — is letting strikes go by. The Cards hitters were aggressive in swinging at strikes over the first two months, especially May when they ranked second in the NL with a strike-zone swing percentage of 70.3%. But it’s slipping in June, with only Arizona’s hitters letting more strikes go by than the St. Louis hitters. The Cardinals have swung at strikes 66.4 percent of the time in June. 

So when your team is chasing too many out-of-zone pitches and holding the bat too often as strikes drop into the zone … well, perhaps Cardinals hitting coach Jeff Albert will enlighten us at some point. 

10) The baserunning is making less impact. This one surprises me, only because the baserunning has been an asset since Shildt became manager just before the 2018 All-Star break. But the Cardinals aren’t pushing home runs with adept, aggressive baserunning so far this season. 

Using the Baserunning Gain metric at Bill James Online — which excludes stolen-base accounting — the Cardinals are a minus 5 in BR gain this season. That’s compared to a plus 7 last season, a + 19 in 2019, and a + 35 in 2019. The Cards have taken an extra base on batted balls 58 times this season, which ranks 10th in the NL. But they’ve also lost 18 on the bases, the eighth-most by an NL team. 

And finally … the bench isn’t good. The front made no meaningful upgrades in that area for the season, and that’s an obviou factor in the team’s leaden offense. 

That’s enough typing for me. 

Thanks to Baseball Reference/Stathead, FanGraphs and Bill James Online for being such valuable resources for my research.

And thanks for reading. I hope you have a relaxing weekend… 

–Bernie 

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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