Let’s do this. I’m in. I love October, I love it more with local baseball on the telly. Can our Birds do it? Why the heck not?
As you read this the St.Louis Cardinals are 61-61 having played 122 of their scheduled 162 games. 40 contests left. 40 opportunities to assert dominance in the NL Wild Card chase. 40 opportunities to increase the stress levels of the entire bi-state area. 40 more opportunities at hope. 40 more opportunities for pure sporting joy that only a win at the ballpark can supply.
What the Cards Need to Do
Using the final standings of 2024 as a guide the last Wild Card team ended the season with 89 wins. To reach that number the Birdnals will need one unworldly stretch run of 28-12, 16 games over .500 for the final six weeks. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Nick Foles beat Tom Brady head to head in a Super Bowl.
How can we build these 28 wins? Next the Yankees are coming to town. You have to take 2 of 3. Pallante and Gray must perform. Miles, god willing, will have another solid start. That’s 2.
Next, off to Florida for three against the fish and three against the Rays. You have to have 4 of those. That’s 6. See, easy!
Then, to Honus Wagner land for a four game set and to the Reds for another three. Gotta take 5. That gets ‘em up to 11! Next the A’s and Giants come to Busch for 6…gotta have 5 there to get that total to 17. Man, this is simple.
Oh…no. I see rough seas ahead. Somehow the Brewers are the best team in baseball and we have to travel to that second rate wanna be beer town for three games. Get one? After that hop a jet to Pearl Jam’s stomping grounds and maybe take one out of three. Total wins with 12 games remaining: 19.
So, all they would have to do is finish September going 9-3 against the Brewers, Giants, and Cubs! So simple. They do this and only have to sweep one team, and lose two series. Why wouldn’t they do it?
What the Cards will do
Even I, your unapologetic homer knows what’s going to happen. The Birds will tease us until being ultimately eliminated in mid-September. They’ll go on a great little run beating great teams and then probably get swept by the A’s or some such nonsense. And it will be my fault for believing. My fault for spreading hope and joy in every article while the Cards leave me at the altar just like Big left Carrie.
They could leave us with a good taste still by absolutely destroying the Cubs in Wrigley to end the season. Knock them down in the Wild Card and wreck their pitching heading into the playoffs. That would be fun. There’s some more of that dangerous hope again.
The Worst Part
They will not be better next season. They just won’t. I know it, but I don’t want to believe it. The rotation will not be better. I hope Sonny Gray sticks around and at least keeps this team afloat again. But, if I were him I’d take a plane ride to a contending town as I enter the sunset of a solid career. As for Mr. Contreras, I want him here as well, but for his sake maybe go somewhere and play baseball that matters in the standings again.
And who is going to get better? After 5 seasons of Lars Nootbaar we can finally say this is who he is; a good player who cannot fight off that injury bug. If he’s your 8th best player you can compete. But, if he is someone you expect to ascend and be a true all-star caliber player, you’re fooling yourself. He is about to be 28, there is hope, but hope got us here.
Gorman? If there is one thing I’ve learned from watching athletes play professional sports for 40 years it’s that backs never get better. Once they get hurt, they just keep getting hurt until the cleats get hung up for good. This one makes me the saddest, he has everything he needs to be Kyle Schwarber, except a solid back.
Who is THE Core?
Donovan will be 29 this off-season and is under team control through until 2028. Will this organization compete in the next two seasons? If not, you have to deal him and build for the 2030’s.
Masyn Winn is part of the core. He’ll turn 24 next year, is playing fantastic Gold Glove level defense, solid offense and has yet to enter his physical prime. I want him still at SS on opening day 2035.
Jordan Walker? His last month has been promising and I feel in my baseball bones he is the real deal. But, next season he has to be it. He has to hit and hit and hit. Anything less than 20 home runs and 85 rbi’s will be a disappointment. Put him out there for 145-150 games and let him eat. Like Winn he’ll be 24 next season and if he isn’t physically in his prime now I cannot wait to see what he becomes.
Burleson? He’s good. Seriously good, but not great. He’ll be 28 this off-season and cannot become a free-agent until 2029. He is another one I would hang on to. I think when healthy you can pencil him in for 20 dingers and 75 rbi’s consistently.
Liberatore is about to turn 26 and cannot be a free agent until 2030. This year he got his first chance at being a member of the rotation and he has been good. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA over 117 innings for a solid start to a career taking on inning one. For reference, Wainwright’s first full season as a starter ended with him posting a 3.70 over 202 IP. Libby won’t get those innings, but he could get close to that ERA.
That’s four men I am sure could be a solid foundation and core moving forward. But, every championship team has at least one thing in common. They have at least one, if not multiple hall-of-famers. 1982, Ozzie, Suter, Kaat, and a future MVP in Willie McGee. 2006? Pujols, Rolen, and most likely Molina and Edmonds at some point. Plus a Cy Young winner in Carpenter. 2011? Pujols, Molina, and Carp again, plus a Hall-of-Almost Fame Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday.
Who is next? When will they get here? When will another banner be hung and trophy number 12 come to the Gateway? I don’t know. But I do know, deep in my Ray Lankford loving soul, that it won’t be soon.
Born and raised in St. Louis, Will Saulsbery is a multitalented writer and musician. A graduate of the University of Missouri, Saulsbery has established himself as a prominent ghostwriter, with his work appearing in top-tier publications like Newsweek, Time, Forbes, Fast Company, Tech Crunch, Entrepreneur, The Observer, and The Hill.
His collection of short stories, Death in the Midwest, A Collection Of Nine Stories Of Death In The Midwestern United States... And One In London, is now available for sale and download. He is also the host of the podcast Hoops on Scoops for the Scoops Sports Network.
