Weekend At Bernie’s: The Messy Cardinals Gave Away A Game Friday Night. It’s Getting Kind Of Late To Do That.

WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

Warning: I’m in a salty mood.

What a gross 10-8 loss by the Cardinals to the Nationals on Friday night. The Cards scored eight runs but were terrible in too many other ways. And they flat-out gave away a game for a variety of annoying reasons:

There was a defective performance by No. 1 starter Sonny Gray.

There was a pitching staff that walked a season-high eight batters, with five of the eight that received free passes came around to score.

There were lost opportunities. Despite having leads of 5-2 and 6-3, the Cardinals couldn’t put away a Washington side that was no-hit by San Diego’s Dylan Cease around 30 hours earlier.

The eight runs should have been enough to fund a victory, but the St. Louis bats went silent for four consecutive innings to give the Nationals an opportunity for a successful comeback.

And just when you thought Dylan Carlson couldn’t get any worse, the former No. 1 prospect proved otherwise. What’s up with this gentleman?

This stinky loss left the Cardinals with a 5-8 record in their last 13 games. The home team is failing to protect the diamond at Busch Stadium, having lost seven of the last 11 games to visiting teams.

This is the wrong time of the season to relinquish leads, concede the home-field advantage, get let down by the presumptive rotation ace, and gift-bag complimentary runs to opponents because of knuckle-headed outfield defense.

After a 33-18 fun run over a 51-game stretch, the Cardinals have the second-worst record in the National League since July 8. The cooldown has led to a 10-10 record in July and caused them to slip in the wild card standings.

Going into Saturday’s match against the Nationals, the Redbirds trail the Mets, Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks in the safari for the three available wild-card prizes.

It’s still close. The pack is crowded and tight. But the Cardinals are now 1 and ½ games out of the No. 3 wild card claim. And if his team continues to lose the way they’ve been losing, the deficit will increase. And that means trouble.

The Cardinals have three games to go before Tuesday’s late-afternoon trade deadline. Will the Redbirds motivate the front office to step up and make moves? Or will the players give the front office a reason to stand down?

Let’s dig in.

Growl!

SONNY GRAY MUST PITCH BETTER. PERIOD. END OF STORY. Cardinal hitters had Gray’s back Friday after the Nationals went up 2-0 in the second. Gray’s teammates struck back to grab leads of 5-2 through three innings, and 6-3 through four innings. But Gray capitulated in the fifth, giving up two runs to cut STL’s lead to 6-5. A No. 1 starter can’t do this type of thing, and we’ve seen too much of it lately.

Gray – the organization’s top free-agent signee last winter – had an 0.89 ERA after his first four starts as a Cardinal. It was exciting to watch him do his thing. Of course, the microscopic 0.89 ERA was unsustainable. Gray would level off over time; that’s how baseball works.

Sure enough, after his first four outings of the season, Gray has pitched to a 4.87 ERA in his last 14 starts. And the problem is getting worse. It’s been a bumpy, jarring ride for Gray since June 29.

The details: Five starts, 6.67 ERA. Opponents have batted .331 against him with a .360 onbase and .568 slugging percentage. The punishment includes two triples, nine doubles and five homers. And left-handed batters have blasted Gray for a .345 average, .397 OBP and .603 slug. And nine of their 20 hits against Gray have gone for extra bases. Yelp.

Gray had a robust strikeout rate (27.7%) in the five starts. And a .425 average against him in batted balls in play is an indicator of some bad luck. That said, all of Gray’s pitches except the curveball have been hit hard, and that makes the “bad luck” narrative less credible.

Here’s a look at opponents’ pitch-type performances against Gray during his last five starts:

— Four-seam fastball: .333 average, .467 slug, 47.4 percent hard-hit rate and a 53.3 barrel-rate percentage. That isn’t bad luck. That’s extremely hittable pitching.

— Sweeper: .323 average, .452 slug. Those numbers aside, this is still a nasty pitch for Gray. In the last five starts, on plate appearances that conclude with Gray throwing a sweeper, Gray has struck out 16 of 31 hitters for a strikeout rate of 51.6 percent. And he definitely has endured some lousy luck with this pitch over the last five starts, with opponents hitting .643 with balls in play. That assessment is supported by a reasonable 26.7% hard-hit rate on the pitch over the last five outings.

— Sinking fastball: .346 average, .654 slug, a high 39 percent hard-hit rate, a high 11.1% barrel rate – plus two homers and two doubles.

— Cutter: .438 average, .688 slug, 53.3% hard-hit rate. Pardon my deplorable grammar, but this pitch ain’t been working.

— Changeup: .333 average, .778 slug, 62.5% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate.

Left-handed hitters have teed off on Gray over his last five starts, slashing .345/.397/.603. Their blitz includes five doubles, two triples, two homers, a 42.5% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

DYLAN CARLSON: Can the Cardinals attach a GPS to his ballcap? It’s reached the point where all we can do is shake our heads, mutter a few unpleasantries, and wonder what the heck happened to the guy who made such a positive early impression in a career that began with his promotion to the big club late in the 2020 season. Carlson built on that initial showing with a good 2021 that included a .505 slugging percentage after the All-Star break. There were legitimate reasons to have high expectations for Carlson; he had talent, poise and a wonderful future. Or so we believed. The talent has faded, the poise is gone, and the future is annulled.

Carlson was horrendous in Friday’s loss, and we can add this to the file of failures that puts Carlson high on the list of the most disappointing Cardinals since Bill DeWitt Jr. purchased the franchise before the 1996 season.

At the plate, Carlson went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. He had two horrible misplays in right field that cost the Cardinals five runs. One was a two-run double in the second. The final flop was a three-run triple in the 10th inning that put Washington ahead 9-6. In both instances Carlson misread the flight of the ball, and took bewildering, off-course steps that made it impossible for him to make a play or limit the damage caused by his misjudgments.

Carlson, 25, is batting .200 for the season, is slugging an anemic .242, hasn’t homered in his 137 plate appearances in 2024, and has whiffed his way to a 27 percent strikeout rate. That strikeout rate has escalated to 39 percent in July.

In all, Carlson’s 49 OPS+ makes him 51 percent below league average offensively. Defensively he ranks among the bottom 10 percent of MLB outfielders in range. He’s a minus 5 in outs above average and a minus four in defensive runs saved.

Once upon a time, the switch-hitting Carlson had significant trade value, but the Cardinals didn’t want to move him. These days, the only trade value Carlson has is for a team with a front office that knows the Cardinals are incredibly, comically inept at evaluating outfielders. Some opportunistic GM might take a flier on Carlson, wagering on the “fresh start” angle and having confidence in the coaches and  instructors to revive Carlson’s career.

3. JUAN YEPEZ. FORMER CARDINAL. HERE WE GO AGAIN: When the Cardinals were swept out of the 2022 wild-card series in two straight wins by the Phillies, the boisterous rookie Yepez produced the one big moment: a pinch-hit, two-run homer that gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

The Redbirds yakked that game up, losing 6-3, and were eliminated a day later. But you can’t blame Yepez. In the two losses to Philly, Yepez went 2 for 5 and drove in two of the only three runs scored by St. Louis in three innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt went a combined 1 for 15 in the series.

Yepez was a shaky corner-outfield defender. And while the precocious Yepez was a little immature here, he’s a good guy. He lost favor with the people who make baseball decisions for the Cardinals. St. Louis non-tendered Yepez after the 2023 season, making him a free agent.

The rebuilding Nationals took a chance on him. And Why not? Yepez can hit. Yepez spent most of this season at Triple A, but he’s batted .375 with nine doubles, two homers, 10 RBI and a 1.032 since being promoted on July 5.

Friday night, Yepez had three hits and two RBIs in Washington’s 10-6 victory. Since coming up he’s had at least one hit in 16 of his 17 games. Nats manager Dave Martinez has stationed Yepez at first base.

“He’s been awesome since he’s been called up,” Martinez told reporters after Friday’s game. “He’s doing his job. He’s not trying to do too much. He’s hitting the ball everywhere, driving in big runs for us. He’s playing really well.”

The weirdness continues. A lot has changed in a year.

Would-be Cardinals phenom outfielder Jordan Walker — the can’t miss prospect —  was demoted to minors. Yepez is back in the majors after being dumped by the Cardinals, and he comes back to St. Louis to help shove the Cardinals to another sorry loss.

GOLDSCHMIDT & ARENADO: Congrats to Goldy on notching career hit No. 2,000 Friday on a two-run homer in the 10th that closed the scoring in the home team’s 10-8 loss. In his last five games, Goldschmidt is 6 for 20 (.300) with two doubles and two home runs. Arenado hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the third to lift the Cards to a 5-2 lead. Arenado has three homers in his last seven games, and is 3 for 10 with two homers and four RBIs in his last three contests.

BATS TURN QUIET: After taking a 6-3 lead in the bottom of the fifth, the Cardinals had two hits in their next 20 at-bats until Goldschmidt pounded his 15th homer of the season with two out in the 10th.

MICHAEL SIANI: He had a good game Friday with a single, walk and run scored. Since June 12 the Cards starting center fielder is batting .298 with a .330 OBP and .405 slug for a solid .734 OPS. For the season he’s hitting .273 against right-handed pitchers, and that includes a .302 average since June 18.

MASYN WINN: After a downturn earlier in July, Winn has perked for a .296 average and .477 slug in his last 10 games. He has a triple, two homers, six RBIs and seven runs scored during this stretch. Winn had two hits and three RBIs in a lost cause Friday; the performance was topped by a two-run homer that tied the game (2-2) in the third. Winn has done a better job of producing and getting onbase as the leadoff man; since July 13 he’s hit .295 with a .326 OBP and .803 OPS from the top spot.

That said, Winn has a poor .295 onbase percentage overall in 217 plate appearances as the STL leadoff man. Among MLB hitters that have at least 200 PA in the leadoff spot this season, Winn’s .295 OBP ranks 25th on a list of 29. His 31 runs scored as a leadoff hitter is tied for 21st.

STARTING-PITCHING CHECK: St. Louis starters have combined for a 5.24 ERA in their 32 games since June 18, a fact that’s been oddly ignored by the locals. It’s been a rough month, with Cardinal starting pitchers posting a 5.52 ERA that ranks 27th in July. From the start of the regular season until the end of June, the Cardinals ranked 17th overall with a starting-pitching ERA of 4.18. Andre Pallante has a 3.42 ERA in nine starts since joining the rotation on May 29. The team’s other starting pitchers have a combined 4.75 ERA in their 41 since May 29.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.