We’re down to a week to go before the Cardinals line up for their season opener at home against the Pirates. There will be pomp and circumstance and a family reunion highlighted by the homecoming of Albert Pujols.

The town will be painted red. There will be Adam Wainwright, pitching to Yadier Molina, as the legends begin their final bravura. This special day in St. Louis is part baseball, part liturgy. The sentiment will be flowing, and we’ll take a cup o’ kindness yet.

With the party about to start, I’m in the mood to take a look at the Cardinals as they finish their fast-paced work in Florida before making the turn for home.

Wait … is this a season preview? I suppose it is!

The first in a series, anyway. And I’ll make my useless predictions next week.

THREE  HAPPY-TALK!!!  POSITIVES

1) The pieces return from an offense that averaged just under five runs per game over the final three months, ranking among the top three in the National League in OPS, wRC+, batting average, slugging percentage, and performance with runners in scoring position. In their first 81 games the Cardinals averaged 3.9 runs with a .675 OPS. In their final 81 games the Cardinals averaged 4.9 runs with a .774 OPS.

2) The Cardinals bring back the finest defense in the National League, illuminated by five Gold Glove winners in first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Tommy Edman, third baseman Nolan Arenado, left fielder Tyler O’Neill, and center fielder Harrison Bader. Plus shortstop defense that led the NL in runs saved at the position. This defense can enhance a questionable pitching staff.

3) The Cardinals compete in the tumbledown NL Central, a division that will provide 38 games against the tanking Reds and Pirates – plus another 19 contests vs. the roster-rehabbing Cubs. The Brewers have their usual abundance of starters and relievers – and a mediocre offense. The Cardinals don’t have to be the 2004 version of themselves to qualify for the 2022 postseason. General competence will do. Just stack a bunch of wins in games against their lesser rivals.

THREE CONCERNS

1) Starting pitching. Can this group hold up? Is there quality depth? The Cardinals will once again lean hard on Adam Wainwright. Over the past three seasons, all playoff years, the Cardinals have a .644 winning percentage in games started by Waino —- and a .531 winning percentage in games started by all others. But can Wainwright, 40, do the Superman thing again? When will Jack Flaherty return, and can he be dominant? Can Steven Matz exceed moderate expectations? Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson made a combined 10 starts over the past two seasons. There are just too many questions for comfort here.

2) Oli Marmol. It’s not that I think Marmol isn’t up to the challenge … or that he isn’t ready to manage in the big leagues at age 35. He’s smart, communicates exceptionally well, and isn’t afraid to break from the old–school baseball orthodoxy to give his team its best chance to win. But the Cardinals made the postseason three years in a row under deposed manager Mike Shildt, and this job comes with a lot of pressure – yes, even in a soft sports-media market. Intelligence is a significant attribute – as long as the intelligence holds up when under pressure during games, and when making personnel choices that could leave players unhappy.

3) The Bullpen: I’m going to waffle here a bit. Here’s why: I do believe the front office did a good job of accumulating depth for the bullpen. Plenty of arms are available, even with Alex Reyes on the IL. But I just have to wait and see what some of these new guys can do. And a big part of this will be Marmol’s bullpen tactics, which won’t be the standard-formula stuff. And will his (presumably) unconventional approach work? Or will it lead to blowups? That’s why I put the bullpen in the “concern” category … even though I think the crew can be pretty good. But I have to watch how it plays out.

BUNCH OF QUESTIONS

(Note: I’m not including any “Can He Do It Again?” questions in this section. Because we can say that about every player that had a good year in 2021.)

If the Cardinals need help – a push to win the division – will the front office ramp it up? Or will we see more of the same from management: the frustrating willingness to go easy rider and settle for a wild-card spot instead of aiming for a higher level of success. If you’re going to put Wainwright, Molina and Pujols together for one last campaign, then why not make it extra special by putting a better team around them?

How will the unofficial DH platoon work out? Corey Dickerson bats left and has been an above-average hitter against right-handed pitching in each of his nine MLB seasons. Over the past three seasons he’s batted .288 with a .808 OPS against RHP. And when Pujols is utilized in a way that maximizes his performance, he’s shown that he can punish left-handed pitching. But Marmol already is talking about using Pujols against RHP – well, at least to some extent. If Marmol manages Pujols as Joe Maddon did in Anaheim, Pujols won’t be set up for success. If Marmol manages Pujols as Dave Roberts did in LA, Pujols can provide value as a powerful weapon vs. lefties.

Will Marmol go forward, and stay with, his “no designated closer up in here” bullpen policy?

Is Paul DeJong on the verge of becoming a plus hitter again? His performance in spring training is encouraging. And clearly his head is clear, and his confidence is up. But it’s only spring training. He doesn’t have to be a great hitter to justify his place as the starting shortstop. (DeJong is a proven asset defensively.) But if he can be an above-average hitter, he’ll add another threat to the lineup. Think of 2019, when DeJong slugged .444 with a .762 OPS and 30 homers. That season his slugging percentage and OPS were slightly above the MLB average. And don;t forget that DeJong ranked 7th among MLB shortstops with 4.2 WAR – better that season than shortstop celebrities such as Trea Turner, Corey Seager and Tim Anderson. A friendly message to the BFIB: DeJong doesn’t have to be Barry Larkin, OK? If he can do 2019 all over again, there wouldn’t be a single damn thing to complain about. But if he wallows again offensively, then go ahead and growl away.

How will Marmol handle the leadoff spot? While there won’t be a full-time, locked-in leadoff man, I hope we see a lot of Dylan Carlson in the top spot. And Marmol should go with the double-leadoff concept by batting Tommy Edman ninth.

Will Nolan Arenado conquer Busch Stadium this season? This didn’t receive as much media attention as it should have, but in his first season in St. Louis Arenado batted .228 with a .287 OBP and .435 slug at Busch Stadium. And on the road he batted .279 with a .336 OBP and .549 slug. There was a substantial difference between his home OPS (.722) and road OPS (.885.) In terms of park-and-league adjusted runs created, Arenado was four percent below average offensively at home, and 30% above average on the road.

Similar question: can the Cardinals’ offense find a way to increase the production at Busch Stadium in ‘22? Just a quick and dirty number: last season the Cardinals ranked 27th in OPS (.695) and 25th in slugging (.385) at home – but were fifth in OPS (.752) and fifth in slugging (436) in road offense.

 Will the prospects have a significant presence on the big club? Outfielder/DH Lars Nootbaar will be part of the mix, but what about some of the other guys? The pre-2022 offseason hype over Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez seems fallacious now. The Cardinals will likely need some pitching-staff reinforcement from left-handed prospect Matthew Liberatore. Super-utility candidate Brendan Donovan could grind out a role. And the Cardinals traditionally promote hard-throwing rookie relievers from the minors when the need arises.

How much will the Pujols’ homecoming and Farewell Season with Molina, Wainwright and Pujols stimulate action in ticket sales and increase the demand for merchandise? And as sweet as this is, it would be a shame to have a nostalgia-rich season that doesn’t include a division championship as an entryway into the postseason.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.