Bernie: A Younger Generation Of Cardinals Is Taking Over, And That’s A Positive Development. It’s Their Time.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals can go either way in the second half of the season. The All-Star break is over, and now it is time to discover who the Cardinals really are. They could be good. They could be mediocre. They could be bad. I know this is possible because they were bad, mediocre and good before the break. They were all over the place. Their identity was still developing, and still erratic.

The Redbirds are moving into a different mode now. They have only 66 games to go. And out there on Route 66, is there a playoff run in their future, or will the road end in a breakdown?

I know this much:

The Young Can’t Be Young.

What does that mean? New dudes are taking over. And they have to become the adults in the room, and the big-impact guys in the batter’s box. As a team, the Cardinals don’t have time to be young. They have to be savage in the pursuit of a postseason spot.

With Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado having downward seasons offensively, the Cardinals have leaned on their younger hitters to compensate for the sparse production and take on a bigger share of the load. And this group that must carry them. This season can’t turn into an endless exercise of waiting for Goldy and Arenado to be the headliners and heroes.

The 2024 Cardinals wouldn’t be in position to make a playoff push unless a delegation of players – age 27 or younger – grabbed the torch and ran with it. They didn’t wait for Goldy or ‘Nado to pass it. The younger Cardinals knew it was their time to lead this team back from the failure of being nine games under .500 on May 11. Now it’s onto the next step; from an offensive standpoint, they’ll have to lead the Cardinals into the postseason.

If Goldschmidt and Arenado can find a way to rejuvenate their bats and have a strong second half, then great. But the Cardinals can no longer count on that. Not for 2 and ½ months. Leave the cheerleading to the media; they’ll handle that part. But for the Cardinals to get where they want to go, it’s largely up to the younger generation of hitters.

Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan are the three standouts. I don’t want to exclude Nolan Gorman from this discussion. Even with all of the whiffs and strikeouts and wasted at-bats, he’s tied with Burleson for the team lead in home runs (17) and is second among Cardinals with 47 runs batted in. Imagine what this larrupping slugger can do if he makes more contact.

These emerging Birds have been driving this offense at a time when no one else – except veteran catcher Willson Contreras – was really stepping up. And even then Contreras missed six weeks with a fractured forearm, and his power was missing from the lineup. He’s back. He’s been causing thunder with his hitting, and there’s more of that coming.

When we talk about how the less experienced Cardinals gave this team a backbone, we have to throw some other names in there. We must include Michael Siani’s graceful, swooping defense in center field, plus the promising talent of rookie catchers Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera.

And now we look at Lars Nootbaar. It’s his turn to join the movement, putting up second-half numbers that he can hang with the stats put up by Burleson, Winn and Donovan.

With Nootbaar, it’s about avoiding injuries and staying healthy. With Gorman, it’s about settling down, keeping his mind clear, and rebuilding his confidence in a way that lasts. In the first half, Gorman had 268 swings and misses – the fourth most by a MLB hitter. He also passed on 200 called strikes. But Gorman is still capable of blasting the instant-delivery impact that few (if any) Cardinals can match.

Gorman is still searching for consistency in his third major-league season. But when he connects, look out. The Cardinals have a superlative 35-12 record when Gorman homers in a game. See what I mean?

As a unit the St. Louis position players age 27 or younger have generated 6.4 Wins Above Replacement. That ranks 14th overall and fifth in the NL. But it isn’t enough. I’ll say it again: the Cardinals need a helluva lot more from Nootbaar and Gorman. And I would like to think that Jordan Walker will reemerge and reestablish the offensive talent that had the prospect watchers gushing. He’ll make his way back; I just can’t say when. But he just turned 22 in May.

There’s a generational shift happening with the St. Louis position players. Their hitters age 28 and older have produced only 4.0 WAR so far this year, and Contreras is responsible for more than half of that. Goldschmidt and Arenado – combined – have only 1.7 WAR.

During their time as teammates in St. Louis, here’s their yearly combined total in Wins Above Replacement:

2021: 9.1 WAR
2022: 14.1 WAR
2023: 6.1 WAR

And in 2024, Goldy and Arenado are on pace for 3 WAR or so. The arrow is pointing down, not up. But to be fair, it’s not all bad; the corner infielders combined for 17 home runs (11 by Goldy) and 46 RBIs during the 35-22 streak that gave St. Louis the best record in the National League since May 12. The contributions are there.

Let’s take a minute to review what the younger Cardinals have done since May 12:

Burleson: .302 average, .332 onbase percentage, .541 slug, 14 homers, 11 doubles, 40 RBIs and 28 runs scored. And believe it or not, he leads the Cardinals with seven stolen bases over that time!

Donovan: .324 average, .389 onbase percentage, .449 slug, 14 doubles, four homers, 26 RBIs, 26 runs.

Winn: .289 average, .330 OBP, .431 slug, 13 doubles, five homers, 26 RBIs and 32 runs.

Gorman: the batting average since May 12 is only .219, but he’s rocked a .442 slugging percentage with seven doubles, 12 homers and 33 RBIs.

Nootbaar: He was on the IL for much of the time since May 12. But in 74 at-bats Noot has hit .270 with a .349 OBP and .446 slug. A preview of coming attractions?

During the team’s 35-22 rise into contention Burleson, Winn, Donovan, Gorman and Nootbaar have combined for 58 percent of the team’s home runs, 54% of the RBIs, 53% of the doubles, 50% of the stolen bases, and 50% of the runs scored.

The younger position players are animated. They’re non-stop energy. Their vibe is a very nice match with the way manager Oli Marmol runs the club. There’s absolutely no need for this Cardinals team to be uptight and stoic and impervious to fun.

I want to add something about Contreras.  At 32 years old, he’s no kid. But he helped the Cubs win the World Series in 2016. In St. Louis he’s emerged as a team leader, and that helps fill the void was created by the retirements of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols following the 2022 season.

Contreras will only grow in stature and importance as the next phase kicks in. Goldschmidt is in the final year of his contract with the Cardinals. Arenado has been frustrated by his career drop-off as a hitter and has a lot on his mind. There’s room on the leadership platform. Newer, prominent voices are emerging, and Contreras is definitely being heard. He’s an imposing presence on the field, and in the clubhouse. He plays with a passion that fires everyone up, including the fans. He’s a prominent part of the cast that will set the tone for a St. Louis team that continues to evolve.

Pardon my late-afternoon, early-evening typos. It’s been a hectic day.

Time for the weekend!

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.