Bernie: As Spring Training Opens, 10 Questions About The 2022 Cardinals

With Camp Jupiter set to open on Monday, here are 10 initial questions on the 2022 Cardinals. We’ll revisit these topics when necessary, pending roster moves and pertinent developments before the Cardinals open the regular season against the Pirates on April 7 at Busch Stadium.

1. Should we be confident in the Cardinals?

Yes, for the most part. The track record is strong. The Athletic recently used a points-based formula to rate the most successful teams – as in winning – since MLB expanded to 30 franchises in 1998. The Cardinals ranked third, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

“The fact that the Cardinals are still considerably ahead of any other National League team is a testament to their all-around consistency,” Stephen J. Nesbitt wrote. “The longest they went between trips to at least the NLCS was five seasons, and from 2000 to 2014 they went nine times.”

But there has been some slippage. In Bill DeWitt Jr.s first 20 seasons as chairman, the Cardinals won 10 NL Central titles. But over the past six seasons they have only one division title. The Cardinals missed the playoffs for three straight seasons (2016-2018) and have won just a single postseason round since defeating the Dodgers in the 2014 NLDS.

They’ve been really good. They have to find a way to be great.

2. Will Oliver Marmol be a better manager than Mike Shildt?

The answer: not sure. I have no reason to be down on Marmol; I like him and believe he’ll come into the season with a lot of good ideas. And he’ll certainly be more advanced than Shildt in his thinking. But there’s a lot more to managing than tactics, and Marmol will be under a lot of pressure in his rookie season. Marmol has to extend the team’s streak of making three straight postseasons. But there’s more to it than that; he must also win in the postseason once he gets there. Shildt didn’t have a good record (4-9) in the postseason.

3. What should be our biggest concern over Marmol?

Most people would go with the lazy “management puppet” nonsense. Yes, he will work well with the front office because he isn’t allergic to trying different things, and Marmol and John Mozeliak are aligned philosophically. Marmol faces a much more challenging problem: doing what’s best for the team instead of of continuing the player-appeasement policy in the St. Louis manager’s office.

3. Is there enough starting pitching?

No. There are enough arms. That doesn’t mean there will be enough starting pitching. Guys break down, and the front office has a tendency to be overly optimistic. The front office also tends to overrate what they have. That’s why the Cardinals were left scrambling to acquire Wade LeBlanc, Jon Lester and J.A. Happ last June and July.

4. How will the Cardinals get better offensively in 2022?

– St. Louis had the best offense in the NL after the All-Star break in 2021, so there’s a lot to work with. The foundation is solid.

– Nolan Arenado is determined to adapt and master the challenge of hitting at Busch Stadium. After batting .228 with a .722 OPS at Busch in his first season as a Cardinal, Arenado will do a lot better in 2022. I’m confident of that.

– Dylan Carlson will be more consistent in his second full season; he put up a .505 slug and .848 OPS after the 2021 All-Star break.

– Tyler O’Neill had his offensive breakout in ‘21 but still hasn’t hit his peak.

– As long as he doesn’t spend time worrying about being liked by the players, Marmol will be intelligent about maximizing his lineups instead of falling into the outdated, old-school baseball traps.

– The Cardinals won’t be giving as many plate appearances to unworthy hitters. In 2021 Matt Carpenter, Justin Williams, Lane Thomas, Austin Dean, John Nogowski, Max Moroff and Scotty Hurst combined for 523 plate appearances last season and collectively batted .156 with a horrendous strikeout rate of 31.3 percent. Thomas did very well after being traded to Washington for starting pitcher Jon Lester, but that’s irrelevant. For the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021 Thomas had nine hits in 84 at-bats (.107) and struck out 30 times. The Cardinals certainly will get better results with a newer group of reserves and part-time starters. Lars Nootbaar proved that with his late-season performance in 2021. And the Cardinals will give opportunities to young hitters such as Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman.

– With a DH in the National League starting this season, we won’t see pitchers swinging the bat. So let’s update a previous stat. In addition to the 523 plate appearances given to lesser hitters in 2021 – I cited them earlier in the column – let’s include the 293 PA by Cardinal pitchers in 2021.

So with the pitchers added our wasted plate appearances total grows to 816. And the bad hitters and the pitchers combined for a sickly .124 batting average in ‘21. Cardinals pitchers batted .095 last season and struck out 40 percent of the time.

Just by cleaning out the remnants and giving a bat to a real hitter instead of a pitcher, the Cardinals should have a lot more juice offensively in 2022.

– Paul DeJong will do better in 2022. How much better? We’ll see.

– I expect that they’ll add a bat from the outside. But keep your expectations in check on that one.

– No matter what the Cardinals decide who to go with at designated hitter, the results will be a helluva lot better than what the pitchers provided in 2021. St. Louis pitchers went 23 for 241 for an .095 average last season and struck out 116 times.

5. Wait a minute. Why will DeJong do better?

I’m looking at something … it depends on how he attacks Busch Stadium; DeJong must pull the ball more frequently when hitting at home. During his career he has a .371 average and .671 slugging percentage when he pulls the ball in home games. And that includes a .346 average and .630 slug at Busch over the last two seasons. Which just so happened to be his two worst seasons – but not when he pulled the ball. He crushed it and put up big-bam numbers. We have found the key!

6. What should be the expectation for free-agent signee Steven Matz?

The lefty will be a good starting pitcher for the Redbirds as long as he (A) stays healthy, (B) works around 150 innings and (C) stays around his career ground-ball rate of 47 percent.

7. Best role for Alex Reyes?

Hybrid. Have him make a few starts when necessary, with the idea of him going three or four innings. Have him be the second St. Louis pitcher in the game, following the starter – and use him for multiple innings on occasion. And Reyes certainly can be a force in the late innings. If Marmol and pitching coach Mike Maddux are creative and plan properly, Reyes could be an all-purpose gem in 2022.

8. Biggest threat to the Cardinals in the NL Central?

Or maybe the question should be: Can the Cardinals threaten the Milwaukee Brewers? Because the Brewers have been the better team since the start of the 2018 season.

Right now they’re tough because of their rotation and a first four of reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes – plus Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser. And Milwaukee still has Devin Williams and Josh Hader on patrol to close out games.

The Cards and the Crew are the two best teams in the division; rank them as you wish. We’ll know more after both teams set their rosters for the regular season. And the Brewers could get aggressive in looking for a bat. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a move that will infuriate Cardinals fans who will then blast John Mozeliak.

Here’s a Brewers recap:

– Out: Avisail Garcia, who led the team in 2021 with 28 homers and 86 RBIs last season. Garcia signed a free-agent deal with the Marlins.

– In: to replace Garcia, Milwaukee traded outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. to his original team, Boston, for outfielder Hunter Renfroe. This should work nicely for the Brewers; Renfroe slammed 31 homers, drove in 96 runs and slugged .501 last season.

– Out: Backup catcher Manny Pina, who is really good as a No. 2. He signed with Atlanta.

– What will Milwaukee do for a DH? Internal options include Rowdy Tellez and Keston Hiura. Or perhaps even Christian Yelich, who has downshifted because of ongoing back troubles. If the Brewers want to think bigger, then they can shop through the DH free-agent market for Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario. But money could be an issue; the Crew already has a projected payroll that would be the highest in franchise history.

Since the start of the 2018 season the Brewers rank third in the NL — behind the Dodgers and Braves — in winning percentage at .565, and the Cardinals are fourth at .550.

Will the Milwaukee front office outfox the NL Central rivals again in 2022?

9) Free-agent relievers? Who are we talking about?

Lots of names out there and forgive me if any have signed after the time I filed this column. Joe Kelly, Ryan Tepera, Colin McHugh, Andrew Chafin (L), Ian Kennedy, Brad Hand (L), Adam Ottavino, Richard Rodriguez, and Kanley Jansen … among others. The Cardinals have been linked to Kelly, Tepera and McHugh … but that’s rumor-mill stuff for the most part. Budget possibilities would probably include Archie Bradley and ground-baller Alex Colomes.

I don’t think the Cardinals will go nuts here because they have some hard-throwers on the way from the minors and have signed Aaron Brooks from the KBO and Drew VerHagen from Japan. Both are candidates – along with Jake Woodford – for swingman assignments.

10) What about Albert Pujols as a DH against left-handed pitching?

Here we go again. MLB.com baseball writer Mark Feinsand got the BFIB in baseball going on Twitter Friday by reporting three teams are interested in Pujols. Feinsand didn’t disclose the teams but that didn’t halt instant speculation about a Pujols-Cardinals reunion.

I wrote a lengthy piece on this Feb. 15.

Here are my conclusions from that column:

– Since the start of the 2019 season the Cardinals have the fewest plate appearances against LH pitching than any team in the majors. Among NL teams the Cardinals have had 500 fewer plate appearances against the next club on the list, Atlanta.

– The Cardinals already have plenty of hitters that clobber lefty pitching. Last season LH starters had a 5.01 ERA against St. Louis; with lefty relievers that ERA was 4.97. Hitting RH pitching was a far more difficult challenge for the Cards in 2021.

– The Cardinals have a first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, who ranks second to Freddie Freeman among MLB first basemen in total plate appearances since the start of 2019.

– The Cardinals love RH hitting prospect Juan Yepez and want to get him at-bats this season. Mozeliak reaffirmed that on Friday – also mentioning Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar as hitters that will be in the plans for 2022.

– The Cardinals can’t promote a young manager who wants to have a more flexible and interchangeable roster and then add a one-dimensional player – age 42 – who can’t do much more than swing the bat against left-handed pitching for a team that won’t face much left-handed pitching.

– Unless the Cardinals want to sell more tickets and are interested in Pujols as an attraction that will draw fans, it doesn’t make much sense.  But if they want to sign Pujols ro ramp up the Farewell Tour, it will be fun to watch Pujols as a Cardinal again, reunited with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.