Bernie Bits: Cards’ Moves Underway, Looking At The 2025 Rotation, Tip O’ The Cap To Lance Lynn, And Why The Yankees Are Frauds.

BERNIE BITS

Good afternoon.

I’m hitting some fungoes …

1. No surprise to see the Cardinals move on from starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn and reliever Keynan Middleton. The STL front office declined options on all three pitchmen in the club’s first pre 2025 salary dump. Had the Cardinals picked up the three options for next season, Gibson-Lynn-Middleton would have been paid a combined $28 million in 2025. So after subtracting the $1 million buyout due to each gentleman, the Cardinals will realize a net savings of $25 million with Thursday’s business-of-baseball transactions.

2. This is a logical step for a team that’s entering a moderate rebuilding cycle. According to the salary-tracking site Spotrac, the Cardinals allocated $51.6 million to starting pitchers in 2024. That was the eighth-highest total given to a team’s set of starting pitchers. Did the Cardinals get their money’s worth? Not really. And that figure ($51.6 million) would have been higher without Sonny Gray deferring a sizable part of his 2024 salary by agreeing to get paid $10 million instead of the scheduled first-year pay of $25 million. Because of how the Gray contract was structured, the Cardinals now owe him a guaranteed $65 million over 2025 and ‘26.

3. Middleton was never a factor. He didn’t pitch for the Cardinals, at all, after agreeing to a one-year deal for $6 million, with an option of $6 million tucked in for 2025. Middleton was knocked out of the 2024 season with a forearm injury that required surgery. The Cardinals correctly decided to move on; on top of everything else there’s no guarantee that Middleton will be ready to go – 100 percent – by the start of next season.

4. Lynn and Gibson pretty much did what was expected of them in 2024. The only real minus was Lynn starting only 23 games because of a painful knee condition, and with the missed time he turned in only seven quality starts all season. But the Lynn injury gave Andre Pallante the opportunity to solidify a spot in the rotation for 2025. Moreover, Lynn limped to the IL after his July 30 start in a move that coincided with the trade that transferred White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde to St. Louis.

5. Gibson and Lynn combined for 53 starts, 287 innings, and a 4.09 ERA. The Cardinals had a 29-24 record in games started by Lynn and Gibson. Lynn benefited from generous run support, which largely explains STL’s 15-8 record in his 23 starts. The Cardinals averaged 4.9 runs in Lynn’s 23 assignments. I thought the Cardinals might pick up Gibson’s option because he supplies a good amount of innings, cranks out a respectable level of quality starts, has improved by making more extensive use of the sweeper pitch, and is a legitimately good leader to have in place with so many younger pitchers around.

6. This sure seems to be the final chapter of Lynn’s career as a Cardinal. He began his MLB stay as a Cardinal, left as a free agent, pitched for several other clubs, and returned to St. Louis for a 2024 farewell season. The Cardinals went 106-78 in Lynn’s 184 starts for them, and he also pitched well in relief as a rookie in 2011. In 2024, Lynn was the last active major-league player from that 2011 World Series championship that closed the Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa era. Lynn was always a fan favorite, and it was fun to have him come back to St. Louis for last call.

7. Unless Lynn and the Cardinals somehow reunite, this is how he’ll rank in franchise history among starting pitchers during the Expansion Era, which began in 1961: fifth in strikeouts, sixth for most starts, sixth for most individual wins (79), and 11th in innings pitched.

Lynn started seven postseason games for the Cardinals but is best remembered for his fine work in the 2011 postseason. At age 24, Lynn had a 2-0 record and turned in a 3.27 ERA in 10 appearances that October. He was a prominent piece in a bullpen that La Russa leaned on heavily to guide St. Louis to a second World Series title in six seasons.

8. A key question for the offseason concerns Sonny Gray. Will the Cardinals trade him? Does he want to be traded? Gray has full no-trade protection and opted to sign with St. Louis to be reasonably close to his family home in Nashville. But Gray might have a yearning to pitch for a team that has a much greater chance to make a postseason run over the next two seasons. Who knows? And how much could the Cardinals receive in exchange for a solid No. 2 starter that’s under contract for at least two more seasons – and with a club option for 2027? The answer: who knows.

9. The Cardinals have several players with no-trade clauses: Gray, third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. That obviously complicates attempts to move any of them if the Cardinals want to do so. After the Cardinals completed their season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he planned to have conversations with players to see how they feel about staying … or going. The Cardinal most likely to be traded this season is closer Ryan Helsley. He can become a free agent after next season, is coming off a career-best season, and with a full season of service for a potential new team, his trade value is at a peak.

10. Mozeliak offered this update in an interview with Martin Kilcoyne of FOX 2: “I can say this. I’ve had some early discussions, and I would say for the most part, people seem like they’re excited about what we’re trying to do.”

11. What will the starting rotation look like in 2025? If no one (especially Gray) gets traded, here’s the list of starting-pitching personnel in place right now, subject to change: Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  Let’s review:

12. Gray is an asset. Despite a couple of disappointing stretches in 2024, he ended the season ranked 3rd among MLB starters in strikeout rate (30.3%), 7th in Fielding Independent ERA (3.12) and 13th in Wins Above Replacement (3.8).

13. Fedde had a good 2024 campaign split between the White Sox and Cardinals. You might even say it was an underrated season. In 31 starts, Fedde crafted a 3.30 ERA that ranked 17th among all MLB starters; that earned-run average was better than that of Dylan Cease, Tanner Bibee, Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Michael Wacha, George Kirby, Sean Manea, Luis Castillo, Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Kevin Gausman and … Sonny Gray. Among many other notables. Fedde finished 17th among starters with 3.4 Wins Above Replacement. It took some time for Fedde to settle in for the Cardinals, but after putting up a 4.64 ERA in his first three starts he finished strong with a 2.95 ERA in his final seven starts for the Redbirds.

14. Pallante impressed the Cardinals by filling a void in the rotation during a time of injuries, and he was so effective as a starter they kept going with him in the rotation. In 20 starts from May 29 through the end of the season, Pallante’s 3.48 ERA was the best among STL starters and ranked 22nd in the majors. His fielding independent ERA (3.56) was ranked 20th among MLB starters.

15. Matz strained to stay healthy during his first three years as a Cardinal, averaging only 11.3 starts per season and working in 18 other games as a reliever. Unless Matz is traded, which we can’t rule out, he’ll be paid $12 million in 2025 in the final year of his deal.

16. Mikolas has been mostly terrible over the last two seasons, pitching to a 5.04 ERA. He has one year left on a contract that pays him $16 million for 2025. Plus there’s the no-trade contract. Would any teams have interest in Mikolas? There could be a market for him. Why? Because over the past two seasons Mikolas leads the majors for most games started (67), ranks 10th for most innings pitched by a starter, and has a more forgiving 4.26 fielding independent ERA that ranks a respectable 25th. He’s also 19th in most quality starts since the start of 2024. There is value in durability and bulk innings; that’s why Mikolas ranks 19th among big-league starters in Wins Above Replacement (5.0) over the past two seasons.

17. Michael McGreevy will compete for a rotation slot after an eye-opening audition last season. It’s a small sample and all of that, but in four appearances (three starts) the rookie righthander went 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. It left us wanting to see more.

18. Younger or inexperienced starters that will (or can) enter the mix in 2025 include the organization’s top pitching prospect in Quinn Matthews, the elite prospect Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson and 2023 trade-deadline  acquisitions Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse and Drew Rom. Former first–round draft choice Cooper Hjerpe pitched quite well last season until getting shut down in late July with an elbow injury that required a surgical cleanup. His readiness for 2025 is uncertain. I’m sure I’m leaving someone out … but we’ll have plenty of time to update this list between now and spring training.

19. Here’s a note from Keith Law (The Athletic) on Cardinals’ infield prospect Thomas Saggese, who made his big-league debut for St. Louis late last season. Law recently scouted Saggese in the Arizona Fall League.

“Saggese reached the majors at the end of the year for the Cardinals and is in the AFL after a completely full season,” Law wrote. “He’s already over 600 PA in this calendar year between the minors, majors, and the AFL. It’s to his credit that he still looks so good right now, playing plus defense at second, using the whole field well at the plate, even homering on a slider one pitch after whiffing on one. I’m sure it helps when you go from facing big-league pitching to facing AFL arms, but I would just say that if Saggese’s major-league debut concerned you at all, he’s fine.”

20. Finally: Congrats to Tommy Edman and the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning the 2024 World Series. They booted the Yankees in five games. Are the Yankees a fraud team?  Yes, I think they are. Just read this insightful note from the superb New York Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman:

“The Yankees were 31-9 (.775) against the AL Central (postseason included) this year and 71-65 (.522) against everyone else,” Sherman wrote. “They have played seven rounds against the AL Central in the playoffs since 2017, including two to win the AL pennant this year, and advanced through all seven. They have played eight rounds against everyone else and won only one – the one-game wild card in 2018 vs. the A’s, who kind of spiritually (if not geographically) belong in the AL Central.”

21. And this note is from me: The Yankees won the World Series in 2009. Fifteen seasons have been played since then. And over the 15 seasons, the Yankees spent $3.3 BILLION dollars on player payroll. For that humongous investment, the Yankees didn’t even win a World Series. And over the last 15 years the low-budget Kansas City Royals have a World Series title (unlike the NYY) and have more American League pennants (2) than the Yankees (1). A total of 10 different major-league franchises have won a World Series (or more) since 2010. But the Yankees and their $3.3 billion payroll expenditures resulted in … nothing. At least not when we count World Series championships. Even the Cardinals have taken more World Series (1) and league pennants (2) than the Yankees over the past 15 seasons.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.