The Armed Forces Bowl is a lose-lose proposition for Missouri, which faces a knotty matchup with Army on Wednesday night in Fort Worth.
The reaction if Mizzou defeats Army: big deal. Always nice to win, but c’mon … the Tigers beat a service-academy team that came into the bowl with a seven-game losing streak against Power 5 opponents.
The reaction if Mizzou loses to Army: can you believe this? The Tigers lost to a service-academy team that entered with seven straight losses against Power 5 opponents. How embarrassing.
Army was favored by 6.5 points as of Wednesday morning. The line was 3.5 points until the franchise — Mizzou running back Tyler Badie — withdrew from the event. The oddly-timed and confusing announcement came Tuesday morning, after Missouri had spent a couple of weeks saying Badie would play against the Black Knights.
In disclosing the news Tuesday, head coach Eli Drinkwitz said the decision was made by the coaching staff – not Badie. The nation’s third-leading rusher wanted to compete in what would be his final game at the college level. But Mizzou wanted to protect Badie from the risk of an injury that could damage his NFL chances. Drinkwitz told ESPN that he couldn’t live with himself if Badie suffered a devastating injury by playing in the Armed Forces Bowl.
We appreciate the staff’s concern – if, in fact, this was all about looking out for Badie. Then again, even if Badie himself had a change of heart and made the call to sit this one out, the coaches looked out for him in a different way: by taking responsibility for the decision.
That way Badie wouldn’t face criticism for skipping the game after fans had purchased tickets and paid for the cost of travel and lodging with the expectation of attending Badie’s final game as a Tiger.
I believe Drinkwitz’s version of the Badie story. A coach that puts the player first is a good look when it’s time to recruit. Then again, if Drinkwitz had such anxiety over Badie’s vulnerability, then why did Badie run the ball 41 times against Arkansas in the final regular season game? Yes, a school rushing record on the line, and that isn’t a minor thing. But 41 carries is 41 carries, and Badie also caught a pass for a total of 42 touches from scrimmage. Mizzou was losing to Arkansas 34-9 with about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
I’d never fault Badie for opting out of the game to preserve his football health and NFL prospects. Let’s be honest about this, OK? Missouri was dumped into the Armed Forces bowl by the SEC, with the conference choosing to align its other 13 postseason-eligible teams with SEC-affiliated bowls.
It’s just as well. Mizzou won’t have a full squad to go against Army, and four team captains won’t play. I guess we can’t slap the SEC motto — “It Just Matters More” — on Ol’ Mizzou in the Armed Forces Bowl.
And the SEC had such little respect for Missouri it relegated the Tigers in a bowl with a time slot that conflicted with Wednesday’s annual “Braggin’ Rights” basketball game between Missouri and Illinois at Enterprise Center.
Saturday Down South rated Army-Missouri at No. 12 in the rankings of the 13 bowl games featuring an SEC representative. And that was before Badie pulled out … or was pulled out by the coaches.
“The game that kicks off bowl season for the SEC will probably draw plenty of eyeballs from around the conference,” Saturday Down South wrote. “But it isn’t an appealing matchup and, making matters worse, the 7 p.m. kickoff time conflicts with Missouri basketball’s annual “Braggin’ Rights” rivalry game with Illinois. Missouri fans may want to watch Cuonzo Martin’s team instead: the football team’s run defense is terrible, and Army is the best rushing offense in the country.”
Badie ran for an average of 133.6 yards per game and was responsible for just under 75 percent of Missouri’s rushing yards this season. He accounted for 39% of the team’s offensive yards from scrimmage, ranking second nationally with an average of 161.2 yards per game. And Badie scored 18 of Mizzou’s 42 touchdowns on offense. That’s 42.8 percent. What a player.
With a win, the Tigers would finish with a 7-6 record in Coach Drink’s second season. That’s certainly preferable to 6-7, but tonight’s outcome will have no impact on recruiting. Drinkwitz was able to bring in the No. 10 rated early recruiting class for 2022 – even with Mizzou in the process of losing seven of its last 10 SEC games and going 1-7 against winning FBS teams in the coach’s two seasons.
A loss to Army would leave Drinkwitz with a losing record this season – plus a 11-12 record in two years overall. So yeah, for whatever it’s worth, a win over Army would give Drink’s record a slightly better look.
This game will likely come down to Mizzou’s ability to obstruct Army’s powerful rushing attack. The Black Knights (8-4) are second nationally with an average of 286.9 yards rushing per game, and have romped for 44 touchdowns on the ground.
Army’s dedication to the run game under coach Jeff Monken is something to behold, with the offense averaging 59 rushing attempts and 237 rushing yards in the last 10 games against Power 5 opponents. (Record: 2–8.)
Highlights this season include 179 yards rushing on the road against Wisconsin’s rugged defense in a six-point loss, and 416 yards on the ground in a 70-56 home loss to Wake Forest.
The Black Knights had 182 yards rushing against West Virginia last season, 200 rushing yards at Michigan in 2019, 338 yards rushing at Oklahoma in 2018, and 259 ground yards at Ohio State in 2017.
Mizzou ranks No. 124 among 130 teams in run defense this season, having been stomped for an average of 229 yards per game, 5.48 yards per rush, and 30 rushing touchdowns. The defense displayed improvement late in the season – shutting down Florida and South Carolina on the ground before relapsing at Arkansas (163 yards allowed) in the last SEC game on the schedule.
I’m looking forward to seeing quarterback Brady Cook in his first start for the Tigers. I don’t know how many possessions Mizzou will have offensively, because Army is capable of grinding out lengthy drives that devour the game clock. That’s how they win games. They play keepaway with the football by pounding opposing defenses with the tank procession on the ground, and constructing sustained possessions.
INVESTMENT INFORMATION
One projection model that I pay for and look at had Mizzou — as a 6.5-point underdog — covering the spread in 55 percent of the simulations. The total is 43.5 points, and the Over hit on 52% of the simulations.
If you had wagered on the Over in Army’s last four bowl games, you would have cashed all four times. The Black Knights have averaged 42.7 points in their last four bowls.
Army is 4-2 against the spread in road or neutral site games this season — much better than Missouri’s 1-4 mark ATS in road-or-neutral matchups.
Ah, but the Black Knights haven’t done well this season (1-5) against the spread when entering as the betting favorite.
BERNIE BITS
1) It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas, or maybe that’s just the egg nog kicking in.
2) If I wanted to live in Southern California, I’d move to SoCal. I don’t want 67-degree temperatures on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Get it out of here. Save the spring-like temps for baseball games in April and May. It’s Christmas week. Cool this town down.
3) KenPom projects a 76-62 for Illinois over Mizzou in Wednesday’s game at Enterprise. The Illini are a brutal matchup for the Tigers. Illinois has a monster-mash big man in Kofi Coburn, who makes 62.5 percent of his two-point shots and is one of the top offensive rebounders in the nation. That inside game is complemented beautifully by an air game that’s produced the No. 15 three-point percentage (39%) in the nation. Jacob Grandison, Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier have combined to make 44 percent of their threes. Illinois gets it done on both ends of the hardwood, ranking 11th nationally in offensive efficiency and 38th in defensive efficiency. And Illinois is the second-best team in the nation in offensive rebounding, retrieving 39 percent of its missed shots. The only glaring weakness for Illinois is a horrible 21.8% turnover rate on offense.
4) As for Mizzou, well, the numbers are bleak. This is a bad basketball team. (Big scoop, right?) The Tigers are 185th nationally in offensive efficiency, No. 122 in defensive efficiency, No. 289 in offensive turnover percentage, No. 317 in three-point percentage (24%), No. 180 in two-point shooting percentage (49%), No. 193 in two-point defense and No. 301 in opponent effective field goal percentage. KenPom gives MU an 11 percent chance to win this one. Mizzou’s only hope: many, many turnovers and many, many missed three-pointers by the Illini.
5) Mizzou football alum Nick Bolton is having a fantastic rookie season for the Kansas City Chiefs. The linebacker leads the Chiefs in tackles despite averaging about 40 snaps per game. Bolton was all over the place, making play after play, in KC’s win over the Chargers last Thursday: 14 tackles, three pass break-ups (including one that was tipped for an interception) and two great plays to stop Los Angeles on fourth down. Bolton’s pass coverage defense needed a lot of work early in the season but he’s made substantial improvement in his only so-so area.
“He’s gotten better every opportunity that he has had to play,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said of Bolton. “He has a bright future. He is a great kid. He doesn’t say a whole lot, but he knows what he is doing, and the veteran players know that. He’s a sure tackler.”
6) The respected baseball analyst R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports put two Cardinals on his list of Top 20 prospects heading into the 2022 season.
– Jordan Walker was ranked No. 13: “Walker has near-elite raw power and, in a promising development as it pertains to maximizing its utility, he started lifting the ball more frequently after being promoted to High-A,” Anderson wrote. “His strikeout rate also spiked … but it’s easy to give him a pass on that for now because he won’t celebrate his 20th birthday until May. Walker may in time have to move away from the hot corner, likely to another corner; it won’t matter if he turns into a marquee slugger.”
– Nolan Gorman was No. 17: “Gorman made two noteworthy changes last year, moving from third to second base on a nearly full-time basis and dropping his strikeout rate upon reaching Triple-A,” Anderson wrote. “Gorman’s improved contact rate was accompanied by a change in his swing mechanics, as he lowered his hands to streamline his swing. He has well-above-average power, the kind you seldom see at the keystone; provided his defense is deemed tolerable (and he has improved), he should spend most of the 2022 season as the Cardinals’ starting second baseman.”
7) Carlos Correa, Chicago Cub? According to the connected Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago, the Cubs are showing “serious interest” in signing the acclaimed free-agent shortstop. But … the Cubs front office doesn’t want to commit to a 10-year contract for the 27-year-old talent that carries abundant power and Gold Glove defense. Levine said the Cubs and Correa’s agent were talking before MLB’s work stoppage and will resume their discussions after the lockout. Correa would like to match the 10-year, $325 deal that Texas gave to former Dodger shortstop Corey Seager. The Cubs have made three notable moves this offseason, signing starting pitcher Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71-million contract, giving a two-year deal to free-agent catcher Yan Gomes, and handing a two-year deal to former Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier.
8) Some rumors are swirling out there, with Milwaukee apparently interested in free-agent bopper Kyle Schwarber.
9) College Football Recruiting notes: an astounding 15 percent of the Top 100 national recruits have signed with Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. And that list may grow … the powerful programs continue to dominate the recruiting competition. According to The Athletic, 20 of the top 50 players are going to one of four schools — Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas A&M. And 47 of the top 100 are going to those same four programs.
10) I love the Mets’ hire of Buck Showalter as manager. He’s ideal for the New York stage, and he holds players accountable. Not in an overbearing way – but in a smart and effective way that players respect. And Showalter, 65, will be more into analytics than many assume.
11) According to the Associated Press, MLB payrolls dropped 4% in 2021, and the $4.05 billion salary total was the lowest in a full season since 2015. And this is the No. 1 reason why the players and owners are going at it on the labor front.
12) Here’s an opinion from the esteemed Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs) on Scott Rolen’s Hall of Fame chances in the current round of voting for 2022: “Rolen represents the best chance for the voters to send a candidate untainted by major controversies to Cooperstown this year … The (recent) Committee elections of Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva mean that the Hall will have living candidates to induct next summer, but both are 83 years old; the other four honorees are deceased, and one has been so for over a century (Bud Fowler, who died in 1913). Rolen would provide some youth to the proceedings.”
13) No sports figure in the state will be on the spot in 2022 more than Mizzou director of athletics Desiree Reed-Francois. Lagging home attendance in football and a men’s basketball program that’s bottomed out (or close to it.) Even with the greatly improved recruiting by Drinkwitz, Missouri will continue to be an all-around SEC football lightweight as long as fan interest is down. And the basketball program should never be this bad. What can Reed-Francois do about this?
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.
Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz
