Drew Pyne. Oh, my. Missouri’s No. 2 quarterback wasn’t just good in the second half of Saturday’s cuckoo 30-23 win over Oklahoma. He was great. Terrific. And perfect by some measures. On the surface, we can look at Pyne’s second-half passing yards total (120) and shrug. That’s nice. But what is so special about it?
I can elaborate.
* In the first half, the Missouri offense was boring and ineffective. Starting in place of the injured starter Brady Cook, Pyne had minus 4 yards passing in the first quarter and 27 yards passing in the second quarter for a grand total of 27 yards through the air before halftime. Little action, no excitement, and a 9-3 deficit for MU. But this is also why Pyne’s second half was so fantastic. Given how Saturday’s game started off, we could have seen Pyne lose his confidence, fall apart and lapse into terrible inaccuracy. But Pyne did the exact opposite of that, and this is exactly what Mizzou and fans hoped to see. And to make a comeback for a win over the Sooners, this was also what Missouri NEEDED to see from Pyne. Failure was not an option. Mediocrity was not an option. Excellence was required.
* In the second half, Pyne completed 8 of 16 passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns. But that 50 percent completion rate doesn’t reflect how well he played. Pyne was under pass-rush pressure on 55 percent of his dropbacks and got sacked three times. But nothing unnerved him. Pyne put 69.2 percent of his throws on target, and that was the best second-half (and OT) accuracy displayed by a Mizzou quarterback this season when facing a power-conference defense. And Oklahoma has a fine defense.
* In the second half only 10.5 percent of Mizzou’s passing plays were graded as a “Bust” by Sports Info Solutions. But that isn’t just a QB stat; busts can happen because of shaky pass protection, dropped passes, receivers running the wrong routes, and any number of factors. But yes, it also reflects on the quarterback, and Pyne played a clean second half with few obvious mistakes. Pyne had a good 42.1 percent rate of “Positive” passing plays. And his big-play rate – 31.6% – was very good. Pyne’s final two touchdown zips of the game – to tight end Brett Norfleet and wideout Theo Wease – were precise and precious.
* Pyne was at his best on third-down passing attempts in the second half, connecting on 4 of 5 attempts for 64 yards and two touchdowns. Despite being pressured on 44 percent of his third-down dropbacks, Pyne had an 80 percent completion rate … but it was even better than that. On those five third-down throws, Pyne had perfect ratings – as in 100% – for on-target balls, and catchable balls. And his passer rating on those third-down throws (second half) was the highest score a quarterback can get. Perfect.
* Sports Info Solutions has a proprietary quarterback metric known as IQR. It builds on the traditional passer rating formula by adjusting the value of a quarterback’s performance that’s independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. Against Oklahoma, Pyne’s IQR of 125.8 was the best by a Missouri quarterback in the second half of a game this season. The previous high score was Brady Cook’s second-half 96.5 IQR against Vanderbilt. That included MU’s victorious overtime session. And Pyne topped Cook’s best second-half performance (vs. power-conference defenses) by 29.3 percent. And as I noted, his third-down throws after halftime produced a perfect IQR score.
LET’S CALL A TIMEOUT
And dive into Mizzou’s chances of snatching one of the 12 spots in the first-ever national college football playoff tournament. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz got a lot of attention after the Oklahoma victory by saying his Tigers were still in the playoff race. But are they?
Technically yes.
Mathematically, yes.
Realistically, no.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Missouri an 8.9 percent chance to land in the tournament. That probability is higher than I would have guessed. Based on the FPI update, as of Monday 20 teams have a better shot at the playoffs than Mizzou.
That includes seven SEC teams. In order of probability, here is a look at the top eight SEC playoff hopefuls:
– Texas, 81.4 percent.
– Alabama, 75.7%
– Georgia, 73.9%
– Tennessee, 73.6%
– Ole Miss, 60.9%
– Texas A&M, 14.3%
– South Carolina, 13.6%
– Missouri, 8.9%
The FPI has Missouri at No. 25 in the nation, but that puts the Tigers behind eight SEC rivals: Alabama (1), Texas (2), Ole Miss (5), Georgia (6), Tennessee (9), South Carolina (14), Texas A&M (15) and LSU (16.)
In Bill Connelly’s new SP+ metrical rankings, Missouri is higher at No. 17 nationally, which looks pretty good … well, at least until you look closer and realize seven SEC teams are above the Tigers: Texas (2), Ole Miss (4), Alabama (5), Tennessee (9), Texas A&M (13), LSU (14) and South Carolina (16.)
Going into Week 12, Mizzou is one of seven SEC teams that can finish the regular season at 10-2, along with Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. The six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week but there will be some movement when the new listing is released Tuesday night.
In the new 12-team Playoff Era a team can remain in the playoff safari with two losses … and Missouri has two losses … but just because Mizzou is 7-2, it does NOT mean they’re on solid ground. Nope. MU has managed to hang on, which is all that they can do after getting mauled by a combined 75-10 score in beatdowns by Texas A&M and Alabama.
To keep dreaming, Mizzou must win out. Accordingly the FPI gives the Tigers a 14.1 percent chance to defeat their three remaining regular-season opponents – South Carolina on the road, Mississippi State on the road and Arkansas at home.
Missouri can’t lose on Saturday at South Carolina. In their last four games the Gamecocks lost at Alabama by two points then rolled to three straight wins over Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vandy by an average margin of 23.6 points.
Though SC is 6-3 overall and 4-3 in the conference, Shane Beamer’s team has emerged as one of the hottest in the nation. The Gamecocks moved back into the AP top 25 this week at No. 23, one spot ahead of Mizzou.
Drew Pyne and Missouri’s offense will go against one of the most outstanding defenses in power-conference ball. According to the Sports Info Solutions defensive metric, and against power-conference offenses, the Gamecocks are No. 2 among the 69 power conference teams in pass defense, No. 2 in pass rush, and No. 18 against the run.
The opening line installed South Carolina as a 12 and ½ point favorite over Mizzou.
“Look, South Carolina isn’t going to make the Playoff this season,” wrote Matt Hinton at Saturday Down South. “The Gamecocks already have 3 losses and are short on statement wins outside of their victory against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. But boy, this looks like a super dangerous team for the remainder of the year. The defense has been there all season, but the offense has really come alive in the past couple of weeks. South Carolina has now averaged more than 7 yards per play offensively in back-to-back games. The Gamecocks host a banged-up Missouri team on Saturday night in what could be a blowout.”
If you want to make a case for Missouri finding a path to the playoff, you should probably hold off until we see how the Tigers handle Saturday’s rugged assignment at South Carolina. Unless Mizzou pulls off the upset, the playoff talk will subside and turn silent.
That wouldn’t change Missouri’s big-picture outlook. The Tigers are 18-4 in their last 22 games, and 20-5 in their previous 25 contests. Including the final poll of 2023 and the preseason poll for 2024, the Mizzou program has been nationally ranked in 21 of the last 22 polls put out by the Associated Press. And MU has been included among the top 10 nationally in eight of the last 14 AP polls.
This type of sustained success is rare for Mizzou football, and I don’t forget that. I won’t take it for granted. But playoff fever is intense, and it is reshaping how college football fans and media judge every team. Mizzou has reached a higher level within the college football industrial complex. But the new goal is reaching the playoffs. And Missouri is still looking up and trying to climb.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
