Only one thing surprises me about the decision made by St. Louis Blues GM Doug Armstrong to fire coach Drew Bannister to clear the way for the hiring Jim Montgomery: that this move surprised anyone at all.
It was an obvious, smart, logical and easy shakeup by Armstrong. Montgomery is just what the ailing and increasingly uninspired Blues need right now. I’ll explain more about that later.
Armstrong believes the Blues should be a playoff-caliber team this season. You can scoff at that. Go right ahead. Rip Armstrong if you dislike how he’s done his job in recent years. Make a list of his mistakes that make you salty, put it on paper, and … burn it. Therapy!
No offense, but that doesn’t matter.
Armstrong should have made this move even if the Blues are a hopeless longshot to compete for a wild-card postseason spot in a few months. Because the future is part of this equation.
Here are the only pertinent questions:
Do the Blues have a better coach today than they did the day before? YES.
Does Montgomery have a more impressive coaching history than Bannister? YES.
Have the Blues enhanced their potential for growth and improvement over the remaining 60 regular-season games? YES.
Is Montgomery suited to lead the Blues to a higher level this season, and maximize the impact of the talent on the roster … while also being the right leader to take the hockey club into the future? YES.
Did Armstrong have time to sit back and wait to see if the Blues could reverse their ominous course under Bannister? NO. (Actually, make that “Hell, No.”)
This season was shaping up as a disaster in the making for The Note. The Blues didn’t make the playoffs last season but moved up to 92 points. They were getting closer to where they wanted to go.
Armstrong saw that, was encouraged, and went out this past offseason to add meaningful talent to the roster. Defenseman Philip Broberg, defenseman Ryan Suter, center Dylan Holloway, and several more. But even if we account for their injuries – hey, all teams suffer injuries – the Blues were floating and sinking to the bottom depths of the overall NHL standings. They weren’t building on last season’s promise of 43-33-6 record and .561 points percentage (16th) that represented good progress from their .494 points percentage (23rd) in 2022-2023.
As of Sunday morning, the Blues rank 30th overall in average goals per game. They are 25th in goals-against per game. They’re 24th in power play success, and 24th in penalty-killing efficiency. All of this explains why the Blues are 26th among the 32 teams with a .432 points-earned percentage. After Saturday’s boring 3-1 loss at the New York Islanders, the Blues are on a pace to finish with 71 points. That would be a substantial and demoralizing drop from last season’s trajectory.
Goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer probably could be playing a little better but I give them a break because of the circumstances. The goalies are under immense pressure to steal games, or keep the Blues close in games to salvage a point. All goaltenders should be able to handle that … but not all of the time. Binnington and Hofer can’t be supermen, saving the day with feats of extraordinary brilliance – for every work shift.
The ugly, unsightly breakdown of this St. Louis offense – and the resulting goals-scored shortage leaves the goaltenders more vulnerable. Demanding perfection is a tough ask. Here’s what I’m referring to:
+ This season the Blues have scored three goals or less 18 times, the third-highest total among NHL teams. Their record when scoring no more than three goals is 5-13.
+ This season the Blues have netted two goals or less 13 times, the fourth-highest among NHL teams. Their record in those 13 games is 2-11.
+ The Blues have been held to one goal or shut out seven times already this season; that’s tied for the most in the league. Their record in these games is 1-6.
+ The Blues used to be a team capable of getting a good share of points as long as they prevented opponents from scoring more than three goals in a game. In the previous two seasons, the Blues had a 69-17 record when limiting the other side to no more than three goals. That’s a winning percentage of .802, and it ranked seventh best in the NHL over the previous two seasons.
And this season? When the Blues have yielded no more than three goals in a contest, the Blues have a .667 winning percentage that ranks 20th in the NHL. The Blues don’t score enough to take more of an advantage in limiting the other team’s goals. Montgomery’s early challenge (among others) is to find a way to charge up this lethargic offense.
Here are some other facts and comments I’d like to offer:
1) Do you think Bannister got a raw deal? You could make the case. And that case would be rejected. Bannister had the job because Montgomery wasn’t free to take the job when the Blues needed a full-time head coach. Bannister did a good job as the interim last season, but the nature of the job changes when you go from being a temp hire to becoming the full-time boss beyond the dasher.
2) Let us remember Army’s history in St. Louis: he fired Hall of Fame coach Ken Hitchcock, who led the Blues to a top-three record in an extensive stay as coach. Among other things, Hitch (in 2016) led the Blues to a conference final for the first time since 2001. Army also fired Craig Berube, the only coach to lead the Blue Note to a Stanley Cup.
3) With the 2024-2025 Blues unraveling … What in the world did we expect? That Army – who terminated Hitchock and Berube – would all of a sudden go soft and leave Bannister alone because he didn’t want to hurt Bannister’s feelings? Again: Armstrong wanted Monty in this job all along. And as soon as it was possible to put Montgomery in place, Armstrong got it done. This move was the proverbial no-brainer. The way some folks have carried on about this, you’d think Bannister was the next Scotty Bowman.
4) Montgomery has the No. 1 points-earned percentage (an amazing .715) among NHL coaches since the start of the 2022-2023 season. He won the Jack Adams award as the NHL’s best coach that season. As a HC, Monty has an exceptional career points percentage of .659.
5) That sparkling .659 points percentage ranks No. 4 all-time among NHL coaches that have logged at least 298 career regular-season games behind the bench. Yep. Fourth best.
6) Another reason why this coaching change had to be made: the alarming decline in productivity we’re seeing from some of the Blues’ most vital and essential forwards. Details:
* Robert Thomas’ rate of goals scored per 60 minutes is down … his rate of points per 60 minutes is down.
* Jordan Kyrou is scoring fewer goals per 60 minutes.
* Pavel Buchnevich is scoring fewer goals per 60 minutes, and dishing fewer assists per 60 minutes. Booch’s current rate of points per 60 minutes would be the worst of his career.
* Jake Neighbours scored 27 goals last season. So far this season his rates are down in goals, assists and points per 60 minutes.
* The young Zach Bolduc has disappeared. He has no goals in 16 games. He’s been a healthy scratch too often. Bannister hasn’t been able to get him going.
7) Too many of the younger Blues are producing less offense, and that’s scary. These dudes should be taking the lead in carrying the offense but aren’t getting it done. The 5-on-5 performance is pitiful. This can’t continue. The Blues have other potential forward gems on the way among their prospects – most notably Dalibor Divorsky and Jimmy Snuggerud. There are others on the same NHL path who are likely to arrive during the life of Montgomery’s five-year contract. The Blues cannot have the oil well run dry because of ineffective coaching at the NHL level.
8) As I mentioned last week in a column about the coaching situation, Montgomery developed a positive rapport with Blues players as an assistant to Craig Berube for two seasons. He made a positive impact working with Robert Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich and others. In a transition that was overdue, Monty helped Berube implement a more speed-based attack. The younger dudes (and Buchnevich) responded to Montgomery and have given him thanks for their growth. But as I noted a few paragraphs ago, those players have plateaued … or worse.
9) Why did Montgomery get fired in Boston? Mostly the usual stuff, including friction with the front office. The Bruins didn’t have a good offseason, Montgomery and the GM weren’t aligned, and the situation turned sour. In Montgomery’s first two seasons as Boston’s coach the Bruins won 68 percent of their games and had an overall points percentage of .744 … tops in the league. But suddenly, in the third year, he couldn’t coach? Please. Keep in mind that GM Don Sweeney fired Claude Julien, who won the 2011 Stanley Cup as Bruins coach in 2011. Sweeney also fired Bruce Cassidy, who had a terrific .672 points percentage as Bruins coach. Cassidy also got the Bruins to the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. But after getting kicked out of Boston, Cassidy was hired by Vegas and led the Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup triumph.
10) Sweeney says he proposed a contract extension for Montgomery earlier this year – but the idea never led to anything – well, except for Montgomery’s firing. I don’t think either guy was happy to work with the other guy. This happens in the NHL. All of the time.
11) There were problems between the two. The popular and influential hockey Toronto-based columnist Elliotte Friedman laid it all out in a recent podcast. Here’s what Friedman said the other day: “I don’t know if Sweeney and Montgomery saw the future the same way … picking assistant coaches, that was a bit of a bone of contention between the two of them.”
12) That shouldn’t be a problem here. Armstrong and Montgomery carefully aligned. Armstrong gave Montgomery a chance to return to the NHL as Berube’s assistant after Montgomery had lost his job in Dallas because of serious issues with alcohol. Montgomery has worked hard to get (and stay healthy), and Army provided the way back for Montgomery in the NHL. No bond is unbreakable, but the Armstrong-Montgomery connection is very strong.
13) NHL coaches don’t last long. According to analyst Neil Paine, the average span of an NHL head coach is 2.4 seasons, and that’s been steadily dropping for a while. That compares to an average span of 3.6 years for NFL coaches and 3.8 seasons for major-league baseball managers. Going back about a decade, NHL coaches who win the Jack Adams trophy have lasted only 2.3 years after receiving the top coach award. Montgomery didn’t even last that long. This league chews coaches up.
14) The Blues are supposed to provide entertainment, and they’ve come up woefully short in that objective this season. The Blues are 5-6 on home ice at Enterprise Center. Their .455 home ice points percentage is 26th in the league. The Note has averaged 2.16 goals per 60 minutes at home, a home-ice rate that ranks 31st among the 32 teams.
15) As the Bruins coach, Montgomery’s team set an NHL record for most wins, 65, and most points, 135, in NHL history. And while Montgomery is a disappointing 16-17 mark in the postseason, it’s only 33 games. More than that, the Blues have to get back to being a regular postseason presence before we start crabbing about Montgomery’s postseason disappointments if and when they happen. There is no need to worry about a coach’s career postseason success when the Blues are lurching and reeling a few days before Thanksgiving 2024.
I believe Montgomery coaching the Blues was one of those “meant to be” destinies. That’s corny, yes. But this is such an exciting fit. There’s only one thing left to say for now: Welcome home to St. Louis, coach Montgomery.
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in this column were sourced from hockey reference and NaturalStatTrick.
