It’s trade-deadline day in the National Hockey League, but a lot of teams dashed into the market early to beat the rush and fill needs. Desperate general managers lost control and made delirious overpays in trades for defensemen. And there’s still time for GMs to leap into the hubbub for more cockeyed moves.
Blues manager Doug Armstrong has been sorting through the defensemen pile for potential help, but the price will likely remain steep. Jakob Chychrun (Arizona) and lesser names are still out there, but at this point we have to wonder about Armstrong’s ambitions.
The Blues haven’t looked like a Stanley Cup contender in recent weeks, lurching to a 9–7-4 record to rank 17th in the NHL in points percentage (.550) since Jan. 24. Over that time they’ve been the eighth-best team in the Western Conference behind Calgary, Colorado, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Dallas, Vancouver and Nashville.
Over the last 20 games, the Blues rank 24th in the NHL in expected goals-scored share (47.1 percent) at five on five play, and are 18th in expected goal share (47.7%) in all situations.
The goaltending has trembled a bit, with Ville Husso and Jordan Binnington combining for a .896 save percentage (all situations) that ranks 20th in the NHL since Jan. 24. Before that, in their first 41 games, the Blues ranked third in the league with a .919 save percentage at all strengths.
Feb 18, 2020; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong talks with the media about the acquisition of defenseman Marco Scandella from the Montreal Canadians prior to a game against the New Jersey Devils at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
The special teams performance has leveled off, with the Blues scoring 11 power play goals and giving up 14 over their last 20 games.
After allowing 2.58 goals per 60 minutes through their first 41 games – sixth-best in the league — the Blues have been burned for 3.12 goals per 60 over their last 20. That ranks 19th in the league over that time.
The problem has only gotten worse. In slumping to a 2-4-2 mark since March 2, the Blues have surrendered 3.39 goals per 60 minutes. (That ranks 19th in the NHL over that time.) In their first 52 games the Blues were tied for seventh in the NHL with their average of 2.65 goals allowed per 60.
And opponents have popped the Blues for four-plus goals in five of the last nine games. I can’t dismiss this as small-sample noise. We’ve seen the flaws forming for quite some time.
Would the deadline add of one defensemen make enough difference to alter the team’s troublesome trajectory? Unless we’re talking about the Blues plugging in a time machine to miraculously acquire the vintage-form Larry Robinson from Montreal, I’m standing with the pessimists on that one.
And is there an available defensemen who can fix Colton Parayko? I doubt it because he’s played at a below-average level with his three primary defensive partners at five-on-five this season: Marco Scandella, Torey Krug and Niko Mikkola. All three pairings have an expected-goals rate under 50 percent.
Individually, Parayko ranks 60th among 64 NHL defensemen (minimum 1,000 minutes) a five on five with an expected goal-share rate of 44.7%. And Parayko has played the most five on five minutes of any defensemen in the league so far this season. So how is this group going to gel and deliver at a higher level when the team’s No. 1 defenseman is a liability?
I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of watching the Blues come out flat, or inexplicably napping for a period, and their obvious shortage of urgency during this downturn. There’s too much soft play, and I’m not referring to counting hits. I’m talking about a lack of concentration or competitiveness that leads to gaffes. I’m talking about forwards being inattentive on the back check and failing to help the defensemen.
But these were issues even when the Blues were winning more often. The difference: if the goaltending isn’t as sharp, Husso or Binnington can’t cover for the flaws. And with the Minnesota Wild acquiring goaltender Marc-André Fleury to buffer a substantial weakness, the 2econd-place Blues have lost one edge over a division rival that trails them by only one point.
At this point I’d be totally fine if Armstrong declines to make an overpay to bring in a non-filler defenseman from the trade mart. If he wants to pick up a stopgap-type defenseman at low cost, fine.
But as for the big-game hunting for a defenseman … Well, the Blues are too tight on the salary cap and have some big contracts going forward into next season. The sensible thing to do is hold onto the prospects and premium draft choices. Better trade values will be available to Army during the offseason – just like the steal of a deal that brought Pavel Buchnevich from the New York Rangers last July 23.
Because of their wrong-way trending and financial situation, I don’t see the Blues as a team worthy of a considerable trade-deadline investment. We’ll soon find out if Armstrong feels otherwise. But this team, as is, is capable of playing better … and should be playing better. If the Blues can clean themselves up, reinvigorate their passion, and make sure to set the alarm for game time, they can make a push into the postseason. But if if this team can’t change their habits, no desperation trade will save them.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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