Seven opportunistic gentlemen employed by the Blues have scored 20 or more goals this season, and the list could grow to nine by the end of the regular season. Impressive. The Greatest Show on Tundra.
These 2021-2022 Blues are more Brett Hull than Frank J. Selke. They’re more Kurt Warner going deep to Isaac Bruce than Jim Hart handing off to Jim Otis. They’re more Mark McGwire than Tommy Herr.
Instant offense.
The Blues rank fifth in the NHL with an average of 3.59 goals per game. We highly recommend that Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron, Jordan Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev, Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad keep the goals coming. Even better if Ryan O’Reilly and Robert Thomas join the 20 Goal Club.
Frequent scoring is the Blues’ best chance of getting to the playoffs (no problem) and lasting in the playoffs (potentially big problem.)
The Blues gave up an average of 2.65 goals in their first 41 games. In their last 28 competitions they’ve been pierced for an average of 3.34 goals. The goals-against inflation has slowed the Blues’ growth in the standings, but at least they’ve pulled themselves up by going 4-0-1 in the last five.
Truth is, the Blues’ propensity for scoring has been covering their flaws for most of the season. But it’s become more difficult for them to get away with that.
At five-on-five the Blues have directed fewer shots at the net (a 47.6 percent share) than their opponents. They’ve put fewer shots on goal (48%) than their opponents. They have fewer scoring chances (48.4%). They’ve taken fewer shots from the high-danger areas (46%.)
When the smarty-pants analytics people process the Blues’ underlying numbers for shot volume and quality, they come to this conclusion: to this point in the season the Blues should have scored 47 percent of the goals at five on five.
For context, that expected goals percentage ranks a weak 25th among the 32 NHL teams.
In 42 of their 69 games this season – nearly 61% – the Blues have been on the short side, the wrong side, the lower-percentage side, of the expected goals metric. But they haven’t paid a heavy price, having gone 39-20-10 this season for a .638 points percentage that ranks 11th overall.
So how are the Blues avoiding a more distressing fate? How are they winning games that should go down as defeats? How in the world can a team have only 46 percent of the high-danger shot attempts at five on five – but shake off that disadvantage by outscoring opponents 81-66? How have the Blues managed to defy the metrics and the poor expected goals rate (47%) to score 55.1 percent of the five-on-five goals?
Short version:
1) The Blues’ shooting percentage is insane. Absolutely cuckoo. At five on five the Blues have scored on 9.84 percent of their shots on goal – best in the NHL. At all strengths they’ve scored on 11.78 percent of their shots on goal – also the best in the NHL.
2) On those high-danger chances the Blues have put away 18.67 percent of their shots on net at five on five; that ranks sixth in the league. At all strengths they’ve converted 20.8 percent of their high-danger shots at five on five; that’s No. 2 in the league. And opponents haven’t been as successful against St. Louis goaltending.
3) The goaltending is obviously a big part of this. Let’s zero in on high-danger shots. Opponents are scoring on 16 percent of their overall high-danger shots put on goal; the Blues are banking those slot-shot chances on net at a rate of 21%. So this just isn’t about the shooters; it’s also because of Ville Husso and Jordan Binnington. Husso ranks 5th among regular NHL goaltenders with a .868 save percentage (all situations) from high-danger zones. And Binnington has held his own with a .846 save percentage (15th) in the same category.
Here’s the tough question: is all of this sustainable? The Blues have slipped defensively. This team would be in a jam if their shooters and scorers cooled down. And we’ve seen the repercussions when Binnington or Husso have a bad or even mediocre game.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
