Bernie On The Cardinals: Corey Dickerson Is A Good Pickup, But Beware The Aging Curve.

Here’s my breakdown of the Cardinals’ signing of outfielder Corey Dickerson, a left-side bat who agreed to a one-year, $5 million contract. He was an American League All-Star for Tampa Bay in 2017, and a year later with Pittsburgh won a National League Gold Glove award for his outfield defense. He’s been consistently good vs. righthanded pitching and doesn’t strike out a lot despite chasing too many pitches out of the strike zone. Dickerson hits to all fields and routinely burns defensive shifts. His LH bat gives manager Oliver Marmol another option in the matchup game, and that’s important. Before this signing the Cardinals had only one pure LH batter, Lars Nootbaar.

I like the move but can’t ignore the warning signs that point to an offense-related decline. Dickerson has an injury history that’s potentially troublesome — so the signing, even at one year, has risk.

1) Let’s begin with this: Dickerson may not be who you wanted. He doesn’t have the name-brand recognition of power dude Kyle Schwarber, or the fun and flaky personality of a Joc Pederson, or the larger-contract cachet of a Michael Conforto. He doesn’t play shortstop and isn’t Trevor Story and that’s OK because the Cardinals needed a LH bat. But Dickerson is a solid signing. He fills a need. He has a good track record. And I’m assessing him away from the noise – based on what he can do for the Cardinals rather than mewl about what they should have done instead.

2) In nine MLB seasons spent with five different teams, Dickerson has a .283 average, .488 slugging percentage and .815 OPS. Based on adjusted OPS he’s performed 16 percent above league average offensive during his big-league career.

3) Dickerson’s strength is thumping right-handed pitchers, and that’s important for an obvious reason: the Cardinals have had the most plate appearances in the majors against RHP since the start of the 2018 season. Over the past four seasons 78 percent of their plate appearances came against righties.

4) In 2,713 career plate appearances against right-handers, Dickerson has a .288 average, .333 onbase percentage, .512 slugging percentage and .845 OPS. He’s been above average against RH in all of his nine seasons.

5) That said, here’s your warning: Dickerson’s power vs. RHP has dropped over the last two seasons. In his first seven MLB campaigns, Dickerson had a .533 slugging percentage and .866 OPS when facing right-handers and was 25 percent above the league average. But over the last two seasons he’s slugged .413 with a .745 OPS against them and was only four percent above league average. Is this age-related? Probably. Dickerson turns 33 on May 22. So yeah, that’s a concern.

6) In fairness to Dickerson, his 2021 season was interrupted by a foot injury that kept him on the IL for 50 days. Dickerson was still on the injury list when Miami traded him to Toronto on Jun. 29. The Blues Jays activated him on Aug. 3, and from that point on he batted .296 against RH pitchers with a .472 slug and .805 OPS. So injuries appear to be a factor in the fluctuations against RHP. Since the start of 2019 Dickerson has missed 129 days during the season because of shoulder and foot injuries. Is that part of the aging curve?

6a) Dickerson offers another reason for the power drop: he tried to become more of a contact hitter, and made the decision to deemphasize power. But when measured against other seasons in his career, there wasn’t much change to his contact rate in 2020-21. But ,,, his line-drive and hard-hit rates were down. And that could be explained by Dickerson using a less violent swing.

7) In 588 career plate appearances as a designated hitter Dickerson has a .502 slugging percentage and a .798 OPS and has homered every 17 at-bats.

8) Dickerson’s career pinch-hitting batting average is .228. But he’s improved with age; since 2019 his PH average is .323 with a .805 OPS. Caveat: that’s on a small sample of only 34 pinch-hit plate appearances over the last three years.

9) Dickerson’s career batting average with runners in scoring position is .279. His career slugging percentage with RISP is .457.

10) When facing RH pitchers in his career, Dickerson has demonstrated a terrific ability to hit the ball all over the place: pulling batted balls at a rate of 34 percent, hitting to center/middle 36% of the time, and a 30% opposite field stroke. The best part of that? Since opponents began using defensive shifts against him in 2016, Dickerson has an outstanding .331 average against those shifts. Among LH batters, he’s among the most successful shift-busters in the majors. This represents a huge upgrade over Matt Carpenter.

11) Dickerson primarily plays left field. But last season Toronto used him for 61 innings in center and 22 innings in right. He played average defense in those two spots, which is perfectly acceptable. Over the last three seasons Dickerson has logged 1,455 innings in left field and is a minus 8 in defensive runs saved. That’s about minus 2.6 runs per season, which isn’t much of an issue. Dickerson was only minus 1 in defensive runs saved last season; that ranked 18th in the majors at LF. That’s fine. The Cardinals wanted Dickerson for his left-handed swing, but it’s a bonus to have a bench guy that can give you innings at all three outfield positions without being a glaring liability.

12) How does he fit? Dickerson can cover for O’Neill in left field if O’Neill is injured or being written into the lineup at DH. I wouldn’t expect to see him much in center field, but he can slide into RF with Dylan Carslon or Nootbaar moving into center when Harrison Bader doesn’t play. Dickerson can be used at DH. But how many times he’ll be used there depends on how much the Cardinals plan to use  Nootbaar – and later Nolan Gorman – as a left-handed hitting DH. But Dickerson isn’t a one-dimensional guy, and he gives manager Marmol additional flexibility in multiple ways: matchups, pinch hitting, DH work, outfield versatility. The Cardinals now have two pure left-handed hitters in Nootbaar and Dickerson plus switch hitters in Carlson and Tommy Edman.

13) Having Dickerson in place to handle a good share of DH at-bats gives the Cardinals insurance if the young hitters struggle. (Nootbaar, Juan Yepez, Gorman.) The Cardinals won’t have to sink or swim with young hitters; Dickerson’s presence provides important depth. The one–year deal limits the Cardinals’ liability should Dickerson decline offensively or break down with injuries. But he could turn out to be a real asset – someone that can provide a year of solid play as the young guys gain MLB experience.

14) If Dickerson gets the job done against RH, the balance should help the Cardinals improve on a weakness in 2022. Last season the Cardinals ranked 20th in the majors with a .706 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and were 21st in slugging (.396) against them.

15) Dickerson, known as a good clubhouse guy, can help the young guys. He’s the team’s oldest outfielder. He’s played in a lot of places, and been a part of winning teams and losing teams. He has perspective on the ups and downs of baseball.

16) Don’t the Cardinals need to add a position player to serve as a backup at first base and third base? Well, not necessarily. Juan Yepez isn’t a defensive wizard, but he can be used at first and third base. In the minors Yepez played 2,059 innings at 1B and nearly 1,000 at 3B.

17) The Cardinals would sacrifice defense by deploying Yepez at either infield corner spot. But that would be true of anyone who fills in for Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado. And what are we talking about here? Since becoming a Cardinal in 2019, Goldschmidt ranks a close second in the majors for most innings at first base. And since 2015 Arenado has played 300+ more innings at third base than any player in MLB. But having Yepez around to make the occasional start at a corner spot will only enhance his chances of making the 26-man roster.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Please email your “Ask Bernie” questions to BernScoops@gmail.com

All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.