Bernie On The Cardinals: Fan Anxieties For 2022. Does It Make Sense To Bring Back Albert Pujols?

Greetings, how are you? It’s time for another round of Cardinal Fan Anxieties for 2022.

So far we’ve looked at the overall state of the offense, the popular idea of signing free agent Kyle Schwarber to serve as DH, and the intense, nonstop angst over Paul DeJong.

Today, I’ll dive into a topic that emerged last week when MLB announced the plans to implement the universal designated hitter for 2022.

The news received plenty of attention on Twitter, with Cardinals fans going back and forth in a largely civil debate on Albert Pujols. It was an entertaining discussion.

OK, then. Now that the DH is a reality, should the Cardinals bring Albert back to St. Louis to finish his career? I’m in the mood to explore.

THE PREMISE: Albert Pujols, one of the best right-handed hitters in MLB history, is on the short list of the greatest Cardinals in franchise history. His 11 seasons in St. Louis (2001-2011) were remarkable. Here’s a partial recap:

• Three National League MVP awards.
• .328 batting average, .420 onbase percentage, .617 slugging percentage.
• 1.037 OPS.
• 170 OPS+ which translates to 70 percent above league average offensively.
  An average of 40 homers, 41 doubles, 117 runs and 121 RBI per season.
•  The 2001 NL rookie of the year.
• The NL batting champion with a .359 average in 2003.
• Six silver sluggers, two gold gloves.
• Two World Series championships and three NL pennants.
• In 74 postseason games for the Cardinals he batted .330 with 18 homers, 52 RBI and a 1.046 OPS.

At age 42, and after 21 seasons, Pujols would like to extend his career. He needs 21 home runs to become the fourth hitter in big-league history to reach 700. Through the end of the 2021 season Pujols ranked third all-time in MLB in RBI, fourth in extra-base hits, fourth in total bases, fifth in doubles, fifth in homers, 12th in hits, and 12th for most times on base.

THE PROBLEM: To put it politely, Pujols’ best seasons are behind him. Hey, we all get old. In terms of park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) Pujols hasn’t had an above-average season offensively since 2016, and is overmatched by right-handed pitching. Among 127 hitters that have at least 1,470 plate appearances vs. RHP since the start of the 2017 season, Pujols has the worst wRC+ at 22 percent below league average offensively. He’s 111th vs. RHP in batting average (.238), 121st in OBP (.286), 119th in slugging (.389), and 123rd in OPS (.675.)

That makes Pujols a platoon bat. He’s been good against left-handed pitching, and I’ll get to that later. But Pujols can’t be utilized against RH pitching in any significant way; he just makes too many outs. Having him DH against RH largely wastes the whole point of having a designated hitter.

Here’s why I say that: Pujols’ offensive performance vs. RHP since 2017 is very similar to Brendan Ryan’s offensive profile vs. RHP during Ryan’s time as a Cardinal.

In 150 plate appearances vs. right-handed pitchers last season Pujols batted .180 with a .500 OPS. For context, consider this: in 2013, Pete Kozma had a .554 OPS for the Cardinals in 305 plate appearances vs. RHP.

GETTING ON BASE: Once upon a time, The Machine was a huge asset for his ability to reach base on a frequent basis – as evidenced by his .420 career onbase percentage as a Cardinal over 11 seasons. But since the start of the 2017 season Pujols has a poor .290 onbase percentage. And it’s .286 vs. RHP and .299 vs. lefthanders. Albert just doesn’t walk much anymore. His plate approach is aggressively geared to hitting for power.

DEFENSE + BASERUNNING: Pujols was minus 4 in defensive runs saved last season 560 innings at first base for the Angels and Dodgers. He hasn’t been a “plus” fielder at first base during a full season since 2015. Since his final year (2011)with St. Louis, Pujols is a minus 151 in net baserunning gain. (That’s, um, bad.) He’s a smart runner, but the speed is long gone. He’s pretty much a station-to-station runner on the bases.

INTANGIBLES: Pujols is a venerated MLB presence, respected by all, and his teammates loved him in Anaheim and LA. He’s unselfishly devoted to helping any teammate, especially the young dudes. It’s like having a bonus hitting coach. Pujols is definitely a plus in the clubhouse.

THE ON-FIELD BENEFIT: Pujols was terrific when facing left-handed pitching last season. In 146 plate appearances against lefties he batted .294 with a .603 slugging percentage and .939 OPS and clubbed a homer every 10.4 at-bats. That’s outstanding. Let’s take a longer view: since the start of the 2019 season Pujols has a .525 slugging percentage and .835 OPS vs. lefts, and homers every 14 at-bats against them.

It’s easy to look at these numbers and envision a DH platoon, with Pujols in the lineup against left-handed starters. And a left-swinging bat – say, Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbaar – would be the DH against right-handed pitching.

THE REALITY CHECK: The Cardinals had the most plate appearances in the majors against RH pitching last season. Over the past three seasons the Cardinals had the fewest plate appearances in the majors against left-handed pitching, with only 20.3 percent coming against lefties.

Moreover, the current cast of Cardinals already does well against LH pitching. In 2021 the Redbirds were ranked first in the majors in slugging (.473) and second in OPS (.798) when taking on lefties.

Seven lineup regulars performed above average against LH pitching last season: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Yadier Molina, Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader.

The Cardinals don’t need much help in the task of winning the battles vs. lefties. They need to strengthen their performance when seeing right-handed pitchers after batting .240, slugging .396 and posting a .706 OPS against them in 2021. And as we noted, Pujols is terrible against righthanders.

Pujols’ bat would be a valuable tool against LH pitchers, but realistically how much would he be used? There are at-bats for him at DH against lefties – but that depends on how the front office views rookie Juan Yepez. More on that in a moment.

Pujols wouldn’t see much action at first base; Goldschmidt loves to play, hardly takes any days off and is an excellent fielder who won the gold glove at the position in 2021. And Goldy is a fantastic baserunner with 202 net bases gained in his career including +55 as a Cardinal.

THE JUAN YEPEZ FACTOR: Every indication leads to the same conclusion. The front office is ga-ga over the rookie, who turns 24 on Saturday. And we can see why.

Yepez is a right-handed hitter. But in 2021 – most of which was spent at Triple A Memphis – he actually had a higher OPS against RHP (.990) than LHP (.904.)

And after being promoted to Memphis last season, Yepez actually performed better at Triple A Memphis (1.028 OPS) than Double A Springfield (.958 OPS.)

Yepez was the only player in the entire organization that put up a .900+ OPS against lefties and righties last season.

In 434 overall plate appearances in ‘21, Yepez had a healthy walk rate (11.7%) and struck out only 19% of the time. The front office declared their confidence in the talented young hitter by promoting him to the 26-man MLB roster for the NL wild–card game. And he would have stayed on that roster had the Cardinals advanced to the NLDS.

(I’m still surprised that Mike Shildt didn’t use Yepez to pinch hit in the wild-card game – but then again, Shildt is the guy that had little interest in acknowledging the existence of Randy Arozarena late in the 2019 season.)

If John Mozeliak strongly believes Yepez is ready for the majors, it wouldn’t make much sense to send him back to Memphis. And the only realistic role for Yepez is DH; he wouldn’t get enough at-bats as a spare corner outfielder or backup first baseman.

The Cardinals could sign Pujols as the RH-hitting bat in a DH platoon. But again, this team will likely take about 20 percent of its plate appearances vs. lefties in 2022, so a RH platoon bat for DH is hardly an urgent need. And part of the Yepez appeal is his ability to put up positive numbers against righties and lefties.

So if Yepez hits as expected – after the usual transition to the bigs, which isn’t always easy – the Cardinals wouldn’t need to construct a platoon to fill the DH spot.

Others will get swings there; the Cardinals will have more flexibility to move pieces around in 2022. And using the DH spot to get plenty of at-bats for rookies Yepez and Nolan Gorman makes a lot of sense. I don’t know what the timetable is; much depends on the terms of any new collective bargaining agreement and the front office desire to manipulate service time by holding Gorman and/or Yepez in the minors for at least part of 2022.

THE DEWITT FACTOR: The Cardinals and the other MLB teams will have to work on fan relations and fan happiness after a preposterously corrosive lockout that’s already damaged the game. If advance ticket sales are slow, or if management fears Busch Stadium will have more empty seats than expected, how will Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. react?

The Cardinals could go at it proactively by hiring Pujols as a platoon DH in a nostalgia-dripping move to fire up the fan base. Can you imagine the marketing and sales possibilities for a 2022 “Farewell Tour” featuring Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright? Can you imagine the thrills and chills (and ticket sales) by having three of the greatest players in franchise history reunited and riding together for one last time? If fan support has softened, that’s one sure way to firm it up.

THE CONCLUSION: It depends on priorities. If the front office is more interested in giving a legitimate MLB opportunity to young hitters that have generated substantial enthusiasm within the organization, the team will use the DH as a break-in role for Yepez (especially) and Gorman.

Yepez provides an extra dimension because he doesn’t have to be platooned. And the rookies would add flexibility because they can be used at multiple defensive positions. (First base and corner outfield for Yepez; second base and third base for Gorman.) Yepez isn’t a polished fielder, but he’s serviceable.

Pujols is more limited. His opportunity would consist of about 20% of the overall DH time on the season and an occasional start at first base. What kind of shape will Pujols be in after the lockout? That’s a fair question.

But if management wants to add another dose of nostalgia to the 2022 season – even if it means holding Yepez and Gorman back – it would be a highly questionable decision. Yepez and Gorman will play in the big leagues in 2022, and if they’re going to be a significant part of the team, they’ll have to play. The same applies to Lars Nootbaar, the LH bat and fourth outfielder who would be part of a DH plan.

None of these fellows will reach their full potential in the majors until they’re playing in the majors on a regular basis. And the only way they can reach full fruition as big leaguers is by getting plenty of experience competing in big-league games.

MY OPINION: If the Cardinals want to bring Albert Pujols back, I’ll enjoy every minute of it as a fan. But I don’t think it’s the sensible thing to do. No disrespect to Pujols, but the Cardinals can’t promote a young manager who wants to have a more flexible and interchangeable roster and then add a one-dimensional player – age 42 – who can’t do much more than swing the bat against left-handed pitching for a team that won’t face much left-handed pitching.

As presently constructed, the Cardinals already have an array of hitters that blasted starting LH pitchers for a .826 OPS last season. Left-handed starters had a 5.01 ERA against St. Louis in 2021; with lefty relievers that ERA was 4.97.

Pounding lefthanders already is an established strength for the Cards. Their likely bench for 2022 will be filled with RH bats.

For this and other reasons, I don’t think the Cardinals will turn to Pujols unless DeWitt is quietly freaking out about the possibility of lagging home attendance in 2022.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.