Bernie On The Cardinals: Oh, No! Why Does It Feel Like 2023 Again?

As the Cardinals strutted to a 33-18 record over a two-month period earlier this season, they had the look of a postseason-bound team. Good times! But the dance music stopped and the lights were turned off. What happened? Why is it suddenly so quiet and dark and shadowy? Why are we doing all of this grumbling?

And why, oh why, is that sinking 2023 feeling coming back again?

Well, the Cardinals have reverted to who they really are. We enjoyed the fun while it lasted … but it couldn’t last. And that’s the point.

The 33-18 wasn’t exactly a mirage – but it was misleading. Think back to the awful start to the season, with the Redbirds 24 of their first 39 games. Think about what we’ve seen recently: a St. Louis team that has the NL’s second-worst record (12-19) since July 10.

The Cardinals were nine games under .500 before the lights were turned on, and they’re nine games under .500 since the lights were switched off.

Except for their 33-18 streak, the Cardinals are 27-53, and they’re much closer in form and identity to the 27-53 version – not the 33-18 version.

Run differential isn’t a perfect measure. To earn credibility as a solid team – not a fluke – it’s important to outscore the opposition over the course of the season. When the opposition outscores you by a wide margin over the course of a season, then it’s a warning sign: be careful. Even with a hot streak in there, that team may be spurious.

The definition of spurious is,  “ostensibly valid, but not actually valid,” and I think that description applies to the 2024 Cardinals.

Run differential is interesting in other ways.

The Cincinnati Reds have been outscoring teams like crazy this season. And though they’ve won four in a row and have moved into a second place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central, the Reds still have a losing record. But their players have pointed to a positive run differential — it’s now plus 55 — and used it to maintain confidence. Eventually, the Reds thought, that favorable run differential would be converted into a higher win total. Their hopes hadn’t been extinguished.

As Cincinnati pitcher Emilio Pagan told The Athletic: “It’s kind of an annoying answer for fans, but you look at our run differential and you can see that we’re playing better ball than our record says we’ve played. That’s something we’ve had to hold on to and we’re going to hold on to moving forward.”

But then there are teams like the Cardinals. Their run differential is frightful, but their record has stayed above it. That’s changing. The Redbirds are learning that it isn’t easy to run away from a gross run differential. It’s usually a defining stat.

There can be exceptions, with a few teams overcoming a negative run differential to sneak into the playoffs. The 1987 Minnesota Twins even won a World Series after being on the wrong side of the run-differential divide.

But let’s focus on the current format. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) barely made the tournament but staged an October Surprise. The Snakes could not be stopped until the Texas Rangers flattened them in the World Series.

At the end of the 2023 regular season, Arizona had a minus 15 run differential, but that was OK because the third wild-card ticket was still available.

The Diamondbacks grabbed that No. 3 wild card but wouldn’t have made the playoffs under the previous format. MLB shifted from two to three wild cards in each league before the 2022 season, and the expanded tournament gives mediocre teams a chance to get in.

With 41 games to go on their schedule, the 2024 Cardinals are trying to work their way out of an avalanche. Their run differential is minus 63 after losing four straight games and getting outscored 27-7 by the Royals and Reds.

If the Cards stay down and out in the RD category, the playoffs seem highly unlikely, even with the extra slot.

If there’s a race, it’ll be the Cardinals vs. the Cardinals.

As in winning season, or losing season?

The Cardinals are the opposite of a quality baseball team. The starting pitching is collapsing, the bullpen is roiling, and a vapid offense has too many underachievers, too many holes, and no real solutions.

No Cardinal team – any era – has invaded the playoffs in a full season with a negative run differential.

If the 2024 Cardinals ended with a negative 63 run differential, it would be the fourth worst by the franchise in a full season during the expansion era (1961-present.)

So the odds are stacked against the Cardinals in 2024. And even if you’re inspired by what Arizona did last fall, there’s something to consider.

Based on their run differential, the 2023 Diamondbacks should have been 80-82 on the season. That was their “expected” record. And it would have left them out of the playoffs, even with the third wild card up for grabs. And that was a team with a negative 15 run differential. This 2024 STL team is much shabbier than that.

The wretched 2023 Cardinals (71-91) had a brutal minus 110 run differential. How bad was that? Only the 1916 Cardinals (minus 153) had a more detrimental run differential in a season of 154 games or more.

OK, here’s something else you should know about the 2023 team’s minus 110 run differential.

Through 121 games, the 2023 Cardinals were 54-67.

This season, based on the runs-scored, runs-against gap, the 2024 Cardinals should have the that same record — 54-67 — through their first 121 games.

My goodness.

That’s jolting.

If you still have thoughts about the 2024 Cardinals rallying to make the playoffs, you might want to rethink it. In reality, the 2024 Cardinals are much closer to being the 2023 Cardinals than a postseason-bound team.

I’ll have another column for you in a while.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe, and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.