How do I put this? When Sonny Gray pitches at Busch Stadium this season, he has an ERA that would be deemed acceptable by the young version of Adam Wainwright. Really good! But when Gray pitches on the road, oh my, he’s Kip Wells, circa 2007. Really bad!
Let’s get to the numbers.
Gray was clobbered Monday in Cincinnati, as the Reds cudgeled him for three homers and six runs in five innings. This fit into his pattern.
Gray has made 10 starts at home, and 10 on the road this season.
And these home/road splits are bananas.
— ERA: 2.66 home, 5.43 road.
— HRs allowed: 3 at home, 14 road.
— HRs per 9 innings: 0.4 home, 2.1 road.
— Opponent slug pct: .288 home, .518 road.
The Cardinals have a 6-4 record when Gray starts at Busch Stadium, and a 4-6 record when he pitches out of town. It could be worse.
Other noteworthy items:
* Gray has a 5.89 road ERA since June 1.
* Gray’s 5.43 road ERA ranks 80th among 88 pitchers that have made at least 10 road starts this season.
* Gray’s home-run rate of 2.1 homers per nine innings on the road ranks 85th among 88 starters.
* The road slugging percentage against Gray (.518) ranks 83rd among 88 starters.
* And yet: Gray’s 31.7 percent strikeout rate on the road is third-best among the 88 starters. He gets them to swing and miss a lot, and gets them to strike out and sit down. But when the hitters make contact in their home ballpark with Gray as the visiting pitcher … rockets red glare.
* In Gray’s home starts, opponents have a 36.2 percent hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate against the right-hander. In Gray’s road starts, opponents have a 43 percent hard-hit rate and 9.4% barrel rate against him.
As for the home field advantage, Gray is one of the best starters in baseball in 2014. His 2.66 ERA ranks 14th among starters with at least 10 home assignments. His HR rate of 0.4 per nine innings is tied for second best. And he’s been touched for a .288 home slugging percentage that ranks third among starters.
I know that Busch Stadium provides a friendlier setting for pitchers, but that doesn’t justify the the severity of the thumpings that Gray endures on the road.
And it doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. Even with the carnage on the road this season, Gray still has a better career road ERA (3.38) than home ERA (3.62). I wanted to check on Gray’s past two seasons with the Twins and there was nothing unusual about his home/road splits. He had a 2.67 ERA in 30 home starts, and a 3.19 ERA in 26 road starts. And the home-run rate was low, real low, in both home and road games – around 0.5 homers per nine innings. The road slugging percentage against Gray in 2022-2023 was .348.
So what, if anything explains this? Well, I could blame it on those shoddy-looking uniforms that MLB assigned for 2024. And if you watched Gray pitch, you’ve seen him tugging on his belt, and pulling up his britches when he leaves the mound after getting the third out of an inning. He sure looks uncomfortable.
On a more serious note: I’ll present some of my findings that I pulled out when digging through the wonderful world of Statcast late Tuesday afternoon. The numbers that I’m about to share are shockingly bad.
1. Hitters are punishing Gray’s four-seam fastballs and sinkers when he pitches on the road. They’ve put 65 of those pitches in play, and when that happens the slugging percentage is … wait for it … 1.077.
2. Gray has been blasted for 14 road homers. Si came on the four-seam fastball, and six were ripped on his sinker. There were a couple of doubles and a triple mixed in there.
3. On the four-seam and sinker in Gray’s road games, the hard-hit rate is 63.6 percent. And the barrel rate is … wait for it … 50 percent. Yes, I typed 50%. That’s amazing — but not in a good way for Gray and the Cardinals.
4. When hitters put the four-seam or sinker in the air when Gray works on the road, the average distance on fly balls is 359 feet. That’s deep.
5. And the 12 road homers cited here launched on those two types of pitches had an average home-run distance of 407 feet. The average distance on all 14 of the road homers powered against Gray this season have traveled 408 feet. That’s a long way from home plate.
Mercy. But this fits into a problematic development: the team’s starting pitching has slowly melted and softened as the hot weather moved in. Gray isn’t the only one. He’s just the guy making the most money and has the “ace” label glued to him. That leads to more scrutiny of his pitching.
Thanks for reading …and please pardon my typos.
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
