Cardinals fans and the media that serve them have plenty of complaints to fuss about. The franchise is doing OK this season but remains in a slump relative to the more successful and memorable years that established a high standard. The month of October has been quiet around here lately. Remember those glory-days runs through the postseason?
That said, as the Cardinals and Cubs renew their rivalry this weekend at Wrigley Field, I would like to point something out.
It could be worse, Cardinal fans.
You could be a Cubs fan.
The Cubs haven’t competed in the playoffs in a full season since 2018. They have not won a postseason game since 2017. They rank 15th in the majors with a .504 winning percentage over the last seven seasons.
The Cubs have a massive revenue bank that makes many other franchises look pitiful by comparison, but ownership doesn’t really go all out financially in the pursuit of another World Series championship.
Cardinals fans frequently complain about ownership’s payroll spending and commitment to winning, but the Cubs have significantly more resources to work with. And despite having such a substantial advantage in the money game, the Cubs have outspent the Cardinals by a relatively minor amount in the 26-man payroll bracket over the last seven seasons.
The Cardinals haven’t exactly dominated, but they’ve won more regular-season games, and the same number of postseason games (4) than Chicago since 2017.
Since the start of the 2019 season, the Cardinals have a .528 regular-season winning percentage while the Cubs have drifted below .500 (.488) over that time. St. Louis claimed one postseason victory in 2019. And unlike the Cubs, at least the Cardinals have won a postseason round, defeating Atlanta in the 2019 NLDS.
Neither team has much to brag about. Even with a huge payroll advantage, the Cubs and Cardinals continue to lose out to small-market Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Brewers’ consistent regular-season success should embarrass the ownership-management groups in St. Louis and Chicago. Going into the weekend series, both teams had losing records and were chasing the Brewers again.
After luring manager Craig Counsell away from Milwaukee with a five-year, $40 million deal last offseason, the Cubs were 7 and ½ games behind the first-place Brewers on Friday morning. The Cardinals are a little closer at 6 and ½ games out.
In advance of the weekend series the Cardinals were trending positively. Their 18-10 record since May 12 was tied with the Phillies for the best in the National League. After a fast start to 2024, the Cubs through Thursday were dragging terribly at 16-27 since April 27 and had the NL’s worst winning percentage (.372).
On April 26 the Cardinals trailed the second-place Cubs by five games in the standings. But the Cubs have been taken down by multiple problems to fall behind St. Louis. That could all change this weekend. Both rivals need a good weekend but the Cubs probably need it more.
OFFENSE: During their 16-27 collapse the Cubs averaged 3.5 runs and had the worst batting average (.214) and slugging percentage (.345) in the majors. They were also way down on the charts in onbase percentage (25th) and OPS (29th). And their .174 batting average with runners in scoring position was even more severe than the RISP failures by St. Louis.
In their last 43 games before Friday, the Cubs had scored three or fewer runs 22 times – which is 51 percent of their games since April 27. The North Siders need a heckuva lot more from Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson and are expecting more damaging impact from Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Through Thursday, Cubs catchers Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya have combined for a .175 average and .489 OPS this season.
“We need to get it going,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters recently. “I don’t think there’s any question about that. I do believe that the structure or the bones of a team that was sixth in baseball in run scoring (in 2023) is right there. We just haven’t gotten it going yet.”
PITCHING/BULLPEN: Chicago’s starting pitching continues to impress – especially newcomer Shota Imanaga, who will bring a 1.96 ERA into Saturday’s start against the Cardinals. The underrated Javier Assad (2.81 ERA) and 2023 Cy Young finalist Justin Steele are formidable. Jameson Taillon has a 3.09 ERA in 10 starts. Having four strong starters at the ready gives the Cubs a foundation for transforming the season. Their rotation went into Friday with a 3.54 ERA that ranked third in the NL and eighth overall.
The Chicago bullpen is a mess. Through Thursday the Cubs had a 52 percent save rate that ranked 14th in the NL and 26th overall. Their bullpen ERA (4.50) was 14th in the NL and 25th overall. In innings 7-8-9 this season Chicago relievers had a 4.38 ERA that was 13th in the NL and 23rd overall. The Cubs bullpen had lost six leads after the seventh inning and blew three leads after the eighth inning.
DEFENSE: The Cubs are one of the worst teams in the majors at 13 defensive runs saved below average. And no major-league team had allowed more unearned runs (44) than Chicago through Thursday. This doesn’t help their situation and is a factor in the team’s 13-15 record in one-run games.
WHAT’S NEXT? For all of their troubles the Cubs are right there with the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks and Nationals in the bid for the NL’s third wild-card spot. They’re a disappointing team but no one is writing them off.
“We are (three) games under .500,” Hoyer told Chicago radio station 670 The Score. “Certainly not where we thought we were going to be … but at the same time, you look around baseball and there’s a whole mass of teams right around that group. Almost all those teams went into the season with higher expectations as well.”
The Cubs’ farm system is rich with coveted prospects but that doesn’t mean Hoyer is eager to trade some of them for temporary, quick-fix solutions.
“We’ve built up a really great farm system,” Hoyer said in the same radio conversation. “Ultimately, the goal is to be able to bring these guys up. That creates tremendous efficiency and tremendous depth as an organization. We do want to avoid (what happened after the 2016 World Series). We were a little bit guilty the last time of constantly making short-term deadline deals that ended up putting us in a hole.
“We’ll be on the lookout for all sorts of upgrades,” Hoyer continued. “But let’s watch this for the next stretch, and hopefully we start to turn this around. I think we will.”
The Cubs were hoping to begin their comeback by ruining the Cardinals’ weekend.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.
Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
