Bernie: The St. Louis Cardinals Must Move On From The Past And Reclaim The Future.

Remember when the St. Louis Cardinals were among the industry leaders for their successful drafting and development of young prospects? Me too.

I was doing some morning reading earlier today, browsing The Athletic. Something caught my attention. The piece described the interesting relationship between the key people in the front-office operations of the two Baltimore teams, the Orioles and Ravens.

Friendships have formed, and the two teams have traded notes and observations about evaluating talent. Front-office operatives from both teams have sat in each other’s draft rooms to watch the decision-making process and all that goes into it.

At one point in the story, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta referenced a book that made a positive impression on him. “The Cardinals Way,” published in 2016, was written by Howard Megdal, who took a comprehensive inside look at how the Cardinals built a powerhouse.

Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. brought in Jeff Luhnow to modernize the baseball operation, and Luhnow’s impact made a huge difference. And Luhnow brought in a staff that included young analysts Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal. The two followed Luhnow to Houston when he became Astros GM in 2011. And just like that, DeWitt’s baseball operation lost considerable brainpower.

DeCosta was specifically interested in the roles of his new friends – Elias and Mejdal – in the building of “The Cardinals Way.” They came to Baltimore to oversee the complete rebuild of the Orioles. It took a few years – this was a tear-down project – but the Orioles were revitalized and transformed.

As Jeff Zrebiec wrote in The Athletic:

“DeCosta is an ardent reader. He enjoys learning about successful people, organizations and companies. He remembers reading about how the St. Louis Cardinals became one of baseball’s model organizations in part because of a player development machine that relied heavily on statistical analysis.”

Sad. That era of St. Louis baseball faded into history. It’s now just a book. As I noted at the top of this column, once upon a time the the Cardinals were an industry leader. But they relinquished the advantage through their own complacency.

DeWitt’s franchise now has a critical project before them. The Cardinals must update their tired old model and reestablish the organization as an innovative, forward-thinking enterprise.

The Cards have lost a lot of ground in this area, and now must try to catch up to the smarter baseball operations that zoomed ahead of them. This undertaking will set the course for the next era of Cardinals baseball.

Chaim Bloom will presumably oversee the mission. I don’t know if anyone will be writing books about the Cardinals in the future. But it’s important for the Cardinals to reclaim that future. The magnitude of Bloom’s assignment cannot be overstated.

BIRD BYTES

LUKEN BAKER had an RBI triple to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead Tuesday. The blow came against left-handed Pirates starter Bailey Falters, and Baker continues to hammer lefties. It’s the usual small sample size, but that’s all I have to work with because the Cardinals don’t play Baker enough.

Baker is 4 for 13 (.308) against lefties since his promotion from Triple A Memphis. Add his three walks and Baker has a .412 onbase percentage vs. left-handers to go along with a .923 slugging percentage, two homers and seven RBIs.

No other Cardinal has more than three runs batted in off lefties since Baker played his first game for the Cardinals this season on Aug. 21.

Against all pitchers, Baker is 5 for 12 with runners in scoring position (.412) with two homers, a double, a triple and a 1.167 slugging percentage.

Another quality for Baker is his skill at drawing walks. He leads the Cardinals with a 17.7 percent walk rate since being summoned from Memphis.

Baker has driven in 10 runs in only 32 at-bats since his callup. Let’s check Baker’s RBI productivity compared to some of his teammates:

+ Arenado 13 RBI … 99 at-bats
+ Baker, 10 RBI … 32 at-bats
+ Goldschmidt, 10 RBI … 87 ABs
+ Donovan, 10 RBI … 89 ABs
+ Walker, 9 RBI … 52 ABs
+ Winn, 7 RBIs … 104 ABs
+ Burleson, 3 RBI … 89 ABs

Hey, Cardinals, you better keep Baker on the bench. The big man isn’t helping the Cardinals score runs, or anything like that. Good grief.

ALEC BURLESON, CRASHING. Burly has gone off the rails this month, batting .167 with a .455 OPS. Per wRC+ – which is OPS+ but only better – Burleson is 61 percent below league average offensively in September. The downturn has been in effect for a while now. Burleson hasn’t homered since Aug. 17. And if we go back to July 22, he’s hitting .227 with poor percentages for getting on base (.299) and hitting for power (.304 slug.)

Burly has only three home runs in his last 181 at-bats. That’s one homer per 60 at-bats. Before July 22, Burleson had 18 homers and had hit one every 18 at-bats. Big problem: too many ground balls. His GB rate for September (48%) is by far his highest in a month this season. And the grounders have cut into his line-drive rate, which has fizzled to 12 percent so far in September.

This month pitchers have powered up on Burleson to keep him on the ground. In at bats that have ended with a four-seam fastball, he’s 1 for 12 with six ground balls. He also has a high ground-ball rate on changeups.

JORDAN WALKER is trying to finish strong. Though the second-year Cardinal still hits too many ground balls and must reduce his strikeouts, he’s made progress in September. In his 47 plate appearances this month, Walker has batted .273 with a .591 slugging percentage and .910 OPS. His late charge includes two doubles and four homers in 44 at-bats. Over the last four games through Tuesday, Walker has a reasonable ground-ball rate of 37.5 percent, and has launched two home runs. Here’s to a better 2025. And maybe the Cardinals will actually bring in a new hitting instructor or two that can help Walker, Nolan Gorman and other young hitters figure things out.

LARS NOOTBAAR, SURGING. He’s been an enigma over the last couple of years, but Nootbaar has clicked in September. I don’t know if it means anything for 2025, but if Nootbaar can stay healthy next season he’ll have a chance to do some special things. Nootbaar has a .293 average and .841 OPS since Aug. 23. But he’s been exceptional this month, ripping a .333 average, .440 onbase percentage and .564 slug. We can always tell when Nootbaar is calm and confident. When that happens, he starts drawing walks. And this month he has a superb walk rate of 18 percent.

STL STARTING PITCHING is on a late-season upturn. I don’t know if this will last over the final games, but in their last 13 contests the Cardinals have a 2.99 starter ERA that ranks 8th in the majors over that time. The bullpen dudes have done their part, working up a 2.29 ERA over the last 13.

THE OFFENSE: STILL CLUNKY. Because of the same, old, tired and problematic offense, the Cardinals are just 7-6 in the last 13 games despite the team’s stretch of stellar pitching. In the last 13 games through Tuesday, the Cardinals have averaged 3.0 runs, batted .205 overall, and hit .144 with runners in scoring position. St. Louis has a horrendous .268 onbase percentage over the past 13 games.

BAD HABITS? YEP, STILL THERE. Cardinal hitters have taken 3,915 called strikes, the fourth-highest total by a big-league team this season. And their called-strike percentage (17.6%) is third worst. The called-strike plague isn’t improving; only one team (Arizona) has watched more called strikes sail by this month. The Cardinals also rank 15th among 30 teams for the largest percentage (31.7%) of hacking at chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Multiple translations: need smarter hitters, need more talented hitters, need a new batting coach, need a clue.

J.J. WETHERHOLT. Just to sprinkle in some Happy Talk news, the seventh overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft has batted .488 with a .551 onbase percentage and .698 slugging rate in his last 10 games for Class A Palm Beach. The escapade, which has carried into the playoffs, includes 13 RBIs, five walks, three doubles, and two home runs. For the season in Class A, Wetherholt has a .342 batting average and .932 OPS with runners in scoring position. Let’s call him WetherHOPE.

MICHAEL SIANI had a good game Tuesday but the center fielder has gone only 6 for 42 (.143) since returning from the IL earlier this month. Since making his way back into the lineup, Siani has four hits in 11 at-bats against four-seam fastballs – but is 2 for 31 with a 31.1 percent strikeout rate against all other types. In related news, center fielder Victor Scott is 0 for 11 with five strikeouts since being returned to Triple A Memphis.

Thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.