BIRD BYTES
Which is like Bernie Bits, except it’s all Cardinals Talk.
I welcome you to a heap of Bernie’s Bird Bytes, delivered straight to you from the recesses and excesses of my mind. There is plenty of trade-deadline jibber and jabber in written-word form in the paragraphs ahead.
1) First things first. I’m thinking about Sonny Gray. He starts against the Cubs tonight, and the Cardinals need him to be good again. Really good. In his last two starts Gray pitched only 9 and ⅓ total innings and got pelted for a 7.71 ERA, .357 average, and .995 OPS. Gray has a 4.48 ERA in his last 11 starts, though his FIP over that time (3.17) is more indicative of his performance. Much of that fielding-independent ERA is derived from Gray’s potent 30 percent strikeout rate over the 11 assignments.
2) This is also true: Gray has only three quality starts since May 9 – and 57 major-league starting pitchers have more than that over that time.
3) For your reading pleasure, here’s a pre-trade deadline view of the Cardinals from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden: “Manager Oli Marmol has done an excellent job this year, proving president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and owner Bill DeWitt Jr. right in their decision to extend his contract in spring training. After a last-place finish in 2023 and a slow start to this season, the Cardinals are in second in the division and second in the NL wild-card race. Their front office is focused on trying to improve the starting rotation and is targeting yet another veteran starter, after acquiring several in the offseason. It’s only a matter of time before they land one. Some of the possibilities include Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays, Erick Fedde of the White Sox and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies.”
4) Related observation: I don’t think president of baseball operations John Mozeliak will go big when shopping the free starting-pitcher market between now and the July 30 trade deadline. If he does, that would surprise me. The Cardinals have amassed some pitching prospects – Quinn Mathews is particularly enthralling – and so a shorter-term rental is more likely from a pragmatic standpoint. I’m not endorsing that view … but I know how the Cardinals approach these things, which prevents me from taking off on unrealistic (insane?) flights of fancy.
5) Mozeliak made two superb deadline moves in 2022, trading for lefty starters Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana. The Cardinals were 55-48 (.533) before acquiring Monty and Q and went 38-21 (.644) after installing them in the rotation. The Cardinals were two games behind the first-place Brewers before the acquisitions. But Montgomery and Quintana had a combined 2.56 ERA in 23 regular-season starts, and the Redbirds were 17-6 when they pitched.
6) In 2021, Mozeliak beat the trade deadline by a couple of hours to acquire salty lefties J.A. Happ (age 38) and Jon Lester (age 37.) The moves weren’t dramatic but certainly helped a so-so team that was short on starting pitching. The 2021 Cardinals were 52-52 before obtaining Happ and Lester. They were third in the NL Central, 9 and ½ games out of first place, and the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave St. Louis a 3.0 percent chance of making the playoffs. But the Cardinals went 14-9 in the 23 combined starts by the two lefties, who collectively pitched to a respectable 4.20 ERA. The STL offense went crazy, Lester and Happ stabilized a shaky rotation, and the Cardinals won 38 of their final 58 regular-season games (.655) to clinch a wild-card spot.
7. Mozeliak did very well those back-to-back trade deadlines and changed the trajectory of his team’s season. Combining the records – “before and after” the deadlines – from 2021 and 2022, here’s what we see: a .517 winning percentage (combined) before the two deadlines, and a .650 winning percentage (combined) after the two deadlines. The acquisitions became an important part of a late-season charge in consecutive years, and the four lefties made an impact. Over the two post-deadline summers, the Cardinals were 31-15 (.674) in games started by Happ, Lester, Quintana and Montgomery.
8) I have no predictions on what the front office will do this time around, but it’s important to improve the depth and the quality of this rotation. Here’s a month-by-month look at St. Louis starting pitching this season:
March/April: 4.22 ERA, 20th in MLB
May: 4.32 ERA, 22nd
June: 4.02 ERA, 8th
July: 6.17 ERA, 28th (YIKES)
9) If we base it on ERA, the Cardinals have an above-average rotation performance in just one month this season. But other than that 4.02 ERA in June, the St. Louis starters have a 4.53 ERA (combined) in March/April, May and July. That’s 23rd in the majors for those non-June months. I prefer to see Mozeliak make a Montgomery-Quintana caliber move than a Lester-Happ caliber move. I’m not talking about specifically acquiring two starting pitchers later this month; this is more of a reference to the quality of the starting pitching that comes across the transom and into Busch Stadium. Be it one starter, or two, or whatever.
10) For the Cardinals to catch the Brewers or hold off the growing commonwealth of NL wild-card contenders, they’ll be at an obvious disadvantage if the starting pitching gets fricasseed.
Even with the IL return of Lars Nootbaar and the expected return of super-utility armament Tommy Edman at some unspecified point after the All-Star break — which may also mean December — I can’t trust the Cardinals to score enough runs to overcome potentially ruinous starting pitching.
11) And if the starting pitching cracks, that puts more pressure and weight and innings on the bullpen. And if the St. Louis bullpen crumbles, then fuhgettaboutit.
12) If Mozeliak can’t secure a starting pitcher that can roughly replicate what Montgomery or Quintana did in 2022, then we’ll be seeing a lot of Giovanny Gallegos, Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy – and emergency calls for Ryan Loutos and Jacob Bosiokovic. An exhausted lefty John King will have no choice but to switch up and throw right-handed pitches. Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero will have their arms soaking in ice vats, 24 hours a day. Ryan Helsley will be held in storage for save opportunities that don’t materialize. The U.S. State Department will enter negotiations with South Korean emissaries for the return of James Naile, who pitches for the Kia Tigers. Unknown relievers will be bussed in on baseball’s back roads.
13) OK, I’m being overly dramatic here. Mozeliak is unlikely to go fetch the starter that the fans want; the Cardinals don’t go for the buzzworthy toys. But Mozeliak must get the starter that his team needs. And if he doesn’t, a hard rain’s gonna fall.
14) Five words: Jordan Walker won’t be traded. That’s my column on the subject.
15) The Cardinals have to find a right-handed bat capable of doing professional harm to left-handed pitchers. One of the craziest stat notes of the Cards season is this:
– St. Louis right-handed hitters vs. right-handed pitchers … 714 OPS that ranks 8th in the majors in the RHB vs. RHP category.
– St. Louis right-handed hitters vs. lefty pitchers … .661 OPS that ranks 28th in the majors in the RHB vs. the LHP category.
Does. Not. Compute.
16) I would enjoy a homecoming for Tommy Pham, but I don’t think John Mozeliak would enjoy a homecoming for Tommy Pham. And that’s all that matters.
17) Player Prop Bet for Friday’s game: Alec Burleson, over 1.7 total bases. Why? Because Kyle Hendricks prefers to throw a lot of changeups and sinkers. This season Burleson is batting .469 with an .875 slugging percentage on changeups, and has a .365 average and .615 slug vs. sinkers.
18) And just for the hell of it: fade the Cubs tonight. Why? According to investment numerologist Steve Makinen: “Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-49 in their last 70 tries.” The Cubs are a +164 underdog in this one.
19) I hope to grab the writing machine and crank out a column this weekend. But either way, I hope you have a fantastic weekend.
20) A personal note: Please make sure to follow me on X @b_miklasz … and please let your friends know. I am trying to rebuild after my original account was hacked. The X Support department has provided no assistance.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
