Bernie’s Bird Watching: We’re Lookin’ At Luken Baker. But Will The Cardinals See Him?

BIRD WATCHING

Luken Grosvenor Baker walloped a three-run homer in Monday’s Grapefruit League victory over the Mets, but this is not why I am writing about him today. I am writing about him today because I just wanted to have a reason to put the middle name Grosvenor in there. How cool of a middle name is that? Outstanding! And I’m not being a wise guy here.

Now that I got Grosvenor in there, yes, I do want to write a little something about Baker’s home run. Not so much this specific home run – but more about Baker’s power. And how the Cardinals plan to tap into it in 2025 … if at all.

Though I wouldn’t be willing to bet more than $10 on it, I think Baker will make the big club for a reason: the need for a right-handed hitter to pinch hit against lefty relievers. And a power-hitting RH batter to DH against lefty starters.

Let’s go birdwatching …

Home Run Baker: No doubt about it, Luken is another Home Run Baker – well, minus the Hall of Fame credentials. For the kids out there, Frank “Home Run” Baker was the most feared HR hitter in the early days of baseball, leading the AL in big flies over four consecutive seasons, 1911 through 1913. But the home run wasn’t a big part of the competition back in the really olden days, which explains why Baker never cudgeled more than 12 of ‘em in a season.

Once Babe Ruth (714 home runs) took the stage to transform the sport with his barrages of long balls, Frank “Home Run” Baker moved into the background. Babe and Home Run Baker were teammates on the Yankees in 2021 and ‘22. And while Baker was still an effective hitter with good power, he couldn’t keep up with The Babe, who shattered Baker’s single–season HR record by swatting an incomprehensible 59 round trippers in 1921.

“I hope Babe lives to hit one-hundred homers in a season. I wish him all the luck in the world. He has everybody else, including myself, hopelessly outclassed,” the gracious Baker told a reporter after the ‘21 season. Baker finished his big-league career with 96 home runs. OK, this history lesson is over.

Luken Baker’s situation going into 2025: He has immense power and does a good job of drawing walks. He’s one of the most intriguing Cardinals in camp and Cards fans have wanted to see more of him. Despite his prodigious power in the minors, Baker has received limited opportunities to prove himself in the major leagues – with only 54 games and 148 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

It’s frustrating because the Cardinals ranked 22nd in MLB in runs scored across 2023-2024. And last season the Redbirds ranked 11th among the 15 National League teams in slugging, and were 12th in home runs. Not only that, St. Louis struggled against left-handed pitching last season, producing at a rate that was nine percent below the league average offensively. Baker, who bats from the right side, has a history of bludgeoning pitches served by lefties. The DH was installed in the NL in 2023, and when we factor that in, there wasn’t a good reason to keep Baker at Triple A Memphis for most of the time.

The story in Memphis: I’m focusing on his hitting at the Triple A level, because that’s been his primary residence over the past three seasons. Baker needed time to adjust to Triple A pitching in 2022, but still launched 21 homers. But the 2023 and 2024 seasons were Home Run Baker time. Over the past two seasons, this is the accounting of all the damage he did against Triple A pitching:

• 832 plate appearances, 690 at-bats
• .278 average
• .388 onbase percentage
• .619 slug percentage
• 1.007 OPS
• 65 homers
• 40 doubles
• 15% walk rate
• 22% strikeout rate (reasonable)
• 150 wRC+, which was 50% above league average offensively.

Baker also smashed left-handed pitching with impressive authority.

Big-league debut season, 2023: Baker, 26, was used sporadically, riding the shuttle between Memphis and St. Louis. He played four games for the Cardinals in June, three in July, nine in August and 17 during the final month. Baker’s numbers were poor in ‘23; he batted .198 with a .341 slug, .645 OPS and a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. I can’t judge Baker harshly because he just didn’t get much of a chance. True, he did have 14 starts in the final month, and didn’t do much with them. And Baker didn’t show much home-run muscle against lefties. But it was his first time in the majors, and some hitters need time to adjust, get settled and develop confidence. There was a sign of progress late in the campaign, with Baker cultivating a 21 percent walk rate (with a reduced strikeout rate) over his last 16 games of ‘23.

Baker’s confusing 2024. What were the Cardinals doing? I ask because he was largely neglected by the Cardinals. Let’s see here. The Cardinals had a terrible offense last season. They were short on power, well below average against lefties, and loaded with too many left-handed hitters. In other words, the situation called for a right-handed batter who could recharge the attack. Baker is limited defensively at first base, but he profiles as an option at DH against left-handed starting pitchers.

STL’s right-handed hitters slotted at DH against lefties collectively performed above average offensively. That group of RH batters included Baker, but he was given only 12 plate appearances against lefties as a DH. Baker made the most of the minimal opportunity, batting .300 with a homer, double, three RBIs, two walks and an excellent 1.217 OPS. Now, sure, that’s a small sample. But that’s also the point: why was the sample size so tiny? That isn’t on Baker; he should have seen a lot more action in the speciality role. But manager Oli Marmol went with other options.

And this wasn’t entirely on Marmol, either. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is in charge of making roster decisions, and Baker wasn’t promoted to the majors until Aug. 21. That’s absurd. And it just reaffirmed an opinion: the Mozeliak-led front office makes strange decisions, and isn’t wise about using personnel.

At Memphis last season Baker had a 15 percent walk rate, slammed 35 homers, and slugged .535. And he punished left-handed pitching. I know this much: the Cardinals should have put him to work sooner than Aug. 21. Would Baker more valuable if he was a more nimble and athletic dude that has more speed an the ability to play multiple positions? Of course. But it’s also important to accept him for what he is, and give him a more extensive look. Play to Baker’s strength. And he has a lot of strength.

Baker had ONLY 22 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching last season. Sad. Silly. And here’s what Baker did with those 22 plate appearances: .278 average, .364 onbase percentage, .722 slug, 1.086 OPS. Subtracting his three walks, Baker hit two homers and a double and drove in seven runners in 18 at-bats. Statistically, Baker was the Cards’ best hitter against left-handed pitching last season.

And again, I don’t want to hear about how small sample sizes are meaningless. Usually I would agree – but not in this particular case. Because the sample size should have been more comprehensive, but evidently the Cardinals weren’t smart enough to figure that out. And Baker’s improved plate discipline gives him more value as a hitter. And the Cardinals apparently overlooked that as well.

Know thy player, Cardinals: Baker is more fearsome when facing left-handed pitching, but he’s more than held his own against righthanders over the last two seasons in Triple A. I just wanted to make sure to take note of that. But in reality, Baker will be locked into his most dangerous form against lefties. That’s pretty obvious, right?

Well, not to the Cardinals. In his late-season callup last summer, Baker actually had more plate appearances vs. righties (27) than lefties (22). And against the right-handers he batted .091 with a .356 OPS and struck out 30 percent of the time. But when the Cardinals had a chance to start Baker against left-handed pitching while he was up in the bigs last season he started only eight games. Eight! And only four of those eight starts were made against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Other teams noticed Baker: Cards opponents have noticed his patience and damage against left-handed arms. That’s why Mozeliak received multiple calls from other front offices this past offseason about Baker’s availability in a trade. They obviously viewed him as a platoon candidate to take on left-handed pitching. The Cardinals chose to keep him. Good. But will they use him at the major-league level in 2025? The Cardinals may see Baker as a one-dimensional platoon bat. But so do other teams. The difference? The other teams appreciate what Baker can bring to a platoon scenario. The Cardinals do not.

The conclusion: this is supposed to be a “runway” season for players to have an expanded opportunity. Baker isn’t exactly a kid; he’ll be 28 next month. But if your organization is sincere about trying to find out as much as they can about players that don’t have a lot of major-league experience, Baker certainly qualifies for that group. I think we’ll see him with the Cardinals this season, and he has a chance to make it out of camp with a spot on the 26-man roster. The Cardinals need his right-handed swing off the bench, and he looms as a platoon candidate at DH. Will 2025 be the season of Baker’s MLB breakthrough? All I can say is “maybe.” I don’t trust the process or the decision making. But I would think it’s now or never for the Cardinals to give Baker a more legitimate chance to establish himself in the big leagues. And if they don’t, some other team will. And we know how that usually works out when the Cardinals cut ties with a player that other teams appreciate more than they do. He may not be the second coming of Baseball Hall of Famer Frank “Home Run” Baker. And Luken may wash out at the big-league level. That’s the problem: we just don’t know enough about him. But can we at least see what Luken Grosvenor Baker can do before it’s too late?

Thanks for reading …

–B

I was inducted into the Missouri Hall of Fame in 2023 and have been writing and talking about St. Louis sports since 1985.

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