Bernie’s Bird Watching: Should Masyn Winn Bat Leadoff For the Cardinals in 2025?

Welcome to the Bird Watching

With this column, I’m beginning a series of pieces that will look at some important areas of 2025 Cardinals and the questions that come with them.

That includes position battles, decisions to be made by manager Oli Marmol about the lineup, playing time, defensive alignments, the starting rotation and bullpen assignments.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of spring training is having a chance to monitor a team as it evolves along the itinerary that leads to the regular season. I’ll be looking at camp surprises, camp disappointments, and all things in between.

FIRST UP: THE LEADOFF SPOT

The Question: Should Marmol go with Masyn Winn at the top of his lineup again in 2025? spot again this season?

1. Winn was a dynamic rookie in 2024: He played exceptional defense to earn a prestigious Fielding Bible Award as the top defensive shortstop in the majors. Winn also put up solid numbers that were impressive considering his age (22) and inexperience. In 637 plate appearances overall, Winn batted .267 with a .314 onbase rate and .416 slugging percentage. He stung pitches for 32 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs. Based on adjusted OPS, Winn performed two percent above the league average offensively. He swiped 11 bases but got caught six times for a poor 68.7 percent success rate that he’s working hard to improve in 2025.

2. Something you may not know: Historically, Winn had one of the best seasons in Cardinals franchise history by a rookie position player age 22 or younger. Using the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement, Winn’s 4.9 bWAR was topped only by Albert Pujols (2001) and Stan Musial (1942) among Cardinal rooks no older than 22. Rogers Hornsby also had 4.9 bWAR. When your rookie season qualifies to be put in a group with Pujols, Musial and Hornsby, that’s a mighty fine way to launch a career.

3. Winn’s performance batting leadoff in 2024: last season Winn’s poor .290 onbase percentage atop Marmol’s lineup ranked 29th among the 30 big-league hitters that had at least 250 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. And his 5.5% walk rate was 27th. Winn was given an extensive opportunity as the leadoff man – 470 plate appearances – but didn’t reach base often enough. And his aggressive plate approach and low walk rate were significant factors.

As a point of reference, the overall MLB onbase percentage for leadoff men in 2024 was .327 – meaning that Winn finished 37 points below the league standard. As a result, the Cardinals ranked 29th among the 30 MLB teams with a leadoff OBP of .292. That was also the worst leadoff OBP by a Cardinals team during Bill DeWitt Jr.’s 29 seasons as franchise chairman.

4. An issue that shouldn’t be minimized: Last season the Cardinals had a .306 onbase percentage (collectively) from their top two hitters in the lineup. Winn had the most plate appearances batting first, and Alec Burleson had the most PA batting second. The .306 OBP from the top two spots ranked 27th among the 30 teams. Here’s why that matters: Last season, STL’s block of 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup had the fourth-lowest total of plate appearances in the majors with runners in scoring position. (And also had the fourth-lowest total of PA when hitting with men on base.) As a team the Cardinals were terrible at hitting with runners in scoring position in ’24, but that’s irrelevant in the discussion of choosing a leadoff man. Even if your team is awful at plating runners who are on base or in position to score, you still need your first two batters to get on base at an above-average rate to create opportunities. What happens after that is up to the middle-lineup hitters.

5. A statistic that I find interesting: What I’m about to show you is far from ideal. And I would even say that it’s flawed, because a leadoff hitter can’t score all by himself unless he homers. And so if a leadoff man gets on base, a teammate will have to drive him home. Winn can do his job by reaching base, and then it’s up to other hitters to step and deliver the run. And if hitters strand Winn on base, that isn’t his fault. And the St. Louis pitchers have a substantial impact on the game result.

That said, here’s a look at how the Cardinals did – wins and losses – when Winn batted leadoff in 2024. It’s based on how many runs he scored in a game. But my point is, the more a leadoff man reaches safely, the more opportunities he’ll have to score runs. OK. Now then …

– When Winn didn’t score a run: 50 times, and a 20-30 record.

– When he scored exactly one run: 35 times, and a 22-13 record.

– When Winn scored two or more runs: 17 times, and a 14-3 record.

6. Hold on! Upon further review, this is a more revealing statistic: What was STL’s record in 2024 based on how many times Winn reached base in a game when used in the leadoff spot?

* When Winn didn’t reach base: 10-14 record with an average of 2.1 runs scored in the 14 losses.

* When Winn reached base exactly one time: 15-16 record with an average of 2.4 runs scored in the 16 losses.

* When Winn reached base two or more times: 31-16 record, with the Cards averaging 6.1 runs per victory. Heck, they even averaged 3.9 runs in their 16 losses.

7. If not Winn at leadoff … then who? Victor Scott may be ready for the job at some point, but not anytime soon. There are two options – Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar. Donovan has a career .340 onbase percentage as a leadoff hitter, and Nootbaar is even better with a career .358 OBP when batting first. Noot also brings some power to the No. 1 spot with his .458 career slugging percentage when batting first. Donovan had a strong .357 leadoff OBP in his first two seasons but dipped to a .314 OBP as a leadoff man in ‘24. Because he’s been more aggressive at the plate in a push to hot for more power, Donovan doesn’t draw as many walks as he did as a rookie. Both Nootbaar and Donovan have been very effective when batting first or second in the lineup.

Over the last three seasons, here are the slash lines – batting average, onbase percentage and slugging percentage, from left to right – for Donovan and Nootbaar when they’re utilized at No.1 or No. 2 in the lineup …

Donovan: .290/ .371/ .420 for a .791 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 25 percent above league average offensively.

Nootbaar: .263 / .357 / .468 for a .826 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 30 percent above league average offensively.

8. Nootbaar and Donovan bat left-handed. Isn’t that a potential problem? No, not really. And certainly not as much as we’d assume. And even though both Donovan and Nootbaar bat from the left side, they’ve inflated high onbase percentages against lefty pitchers during their careers when batting either first or second in the lineup. That’s because both are capable of drawing plenty of walks.

9. Conclusion? I think Marmol would have a more capable lineup with Winn batting at a lower spot because he won’t be wasted there. He can be a plus. Last season, when Winn hit at any lineup spot other than No. 1, he batted .327 with a .382 onbase percentage and .456 slug for an .838 OPS. Per wRC+, Winn was 34 percent above league average offensively when he didn’t bat leadoff — and seven percent below league average when he did bat leadoff. Winn’s power is developing. He handles pressure with impressive poise, coming through with one of the team’s best offensive performances in high-leverage spots last season. Winn will do some damage if Marmol will just relocate him to another place on the lineup card.

If he stays in the No. 1 slot, Winn has to be more patient and discerning at the plate. Last season he chased pitches out of the strike zone at a rate (30%) that put him in the bottom 25 percent of MLB hitters.

Here is Winn’s 2024 profile when he swings in the strike zone:

– Non-strikes: .206 average, .294 slugging percentage.

– Strikes: .295 average, .469 slugging percentage.

– Meatball strikes: .307 average, .471 slug.

Marmol has two highly capable hitters in Nootbaar and Donovan that enjoy hitting from the No. 1 or No. 2 slots in the lineup. The most important quality a leadoff man can have is the ability to consistently get on base. And Marmol has two high-OBP guys who have demonstrated a good feel for working at-bats at the top two spaces in the lineup.

10. The Case for Winn to stay at No. 1: Last season he was given an important role at an early age, and was still a rookie, and the challenge of batting leadoff wasn’t easy. That said, Winn had a .351 career onbase percentage in the minors including a .404 OBP at age 20 when playing in the upper Class A level in 2022. The following season, Winn posted a fine .360 onbase rate for Triple A Memphis. (This is based on his plate appearances and isn’t specifically linked to batting leadoff. Winn adjusted and progressed.

When the Cardinals promoted Winn to the big leagues in August of ‘23, Winn had a 2.5 percent walk rate in his first 22 games. He adapted, focused on drawing more walks and had an excellent 14% walk rate over his final 15 games. Winn didn’t put much emphasis on working pitchers for walks last season, but in August he had a .336 OBP and .814 OPS of .814 in the No. 1 post before fading during a weary final month. Winn can run, and has developing power.

Long term, the Cardinals would benefit from Winn’s progression in the top spot of Marmol’s lineup. But in 2025 are the Cardinals thinking long term – as they claim – or is 2025 about winning as many games as possible?

MY PREDICTION: Marmol will keep Winn in the leadoff spot. And the rest of us will hope to see Winn get on base more frequently in his second (full) major-league season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

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