Bernie’s Bird Watching: The Cardinals’ Bullpen Set A High Standard In 2024. Could Be Difficult To Repeat That In 2025.

BIRD WATCHING

I did a video on the Cardinals bullpen a while back, but now I want to update and go deeper in exploring an important subject that will have a big influence — good or bad — on the team’s record in 2025. 

The 2024 Cardinals won 83 games because of the firewall set up by their relievers in the bullpen. The boys extinguished many flames. They prevented disasters. The team’s overall relief performance wasn’t just dependable; it was exceptional.

No bullpen can be perfect, but the 2024 Cardinals had a damn good one. The Redbirds led the majors with 55 saves, with closer Ryan Helsley locking down a MLB-high 49 of the clinchers.

I like to use the Win Probability Added metric to measure bullpens, and the 2024 Cardinals ranked 7th among the 29 St. Louis ‘pens in action since Bill DeWitt Jr. became franchise owner in 1996.

Last season the bullpen provided amazing protection in handling late-inning threats.

Here are some fun facts for your reading enjoyment.

– The Cardinals were 64-4 when leading a game after seven innings, for a .941 winning percentage that ranked 7th in the majors.

– Because of “Hells Bells” Helsley, the Cardinals were an astonishing 69-1 when leading through eight innings. That unrelenting rate was No. 1 in the NL and second to Cleveland overall.

– Helsley was voted NL’s Reliever of the Year but he was just the last line of defense. Other reliever-guard-dogs were poised and fierce with the pressure swirling. Cardinals relievers were resolute in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings last season, leading the NL and ranking No. 2 overall with a 3.21 ERA in over the final three innings before games went into “overtime” with the ghost runner system that puts a man at second base at the start of the inning to make it easier to score.

– The Cardinals went 18-9 when tied through six innings. The bullpen wasn’t the only reason for this, but the .667 winning percentage in those scenarios is a strong indication of how often the STL relievers won the bullpen vs. bullpen showdowns.

Because of this reliable security operation, the Cardinals had the NL’s second-best record (29-22) in games decided by a one-run margin. Tilting so many close games to their side is the No. 1 reason why the Cardinals avoided a second straight losing season. No question about it, the bullpen was the strength of the team in ‘24.

Though his rabid, maniacal critics will never give him credit for anything, Oli Marmol did a masterful job of running the bullpen in 2024. You don’t win as many close games or turn late leads into wins unless the manager knows what he’s doing.

However, bullpens are combustible. Elbow ligaments snap, and shoulders become unhinged. The injuries – or an unexpected loss of velocity – can cause extreme fluctuations and instability. And Marmol can’t have a lapse in his bullpen acumen in 2025.

Which brings us to the Question of the Day: Can the Cardinals bullpen replicate its unyielding performance from 2024? It will be a challenge.

For all of the superb relief work we witnessed last season, this area isn’t free of concern. Here are some items on my mind …

+ Can Helsley do this two years in a row? He had a peak-form season in 2024, but injuries have caused detours in his career. He missed 20 days in 2019, 48 days in 2021, and 83 days in 2023. And there was that late season jammed-finger injury that led to Helsley to implode during the 9th inning meltdown that cost the Cardinals Game 1 of the 2022 wild-card series vs. Philadelphia.

Last season Helsley’s average fastball sizzled at an average of 99.6 miles per hour, putting him in the top one percent of pitchers for highest velo. He cranked up usage on his slider, a devil of a pitch that caused hitters to chase non-strikes and have an overall 55% whiff-swing rate.

Helsley’s 2024 was so outstanding, he came away with the highest Win Probability Added figure by a St. Louis reliever in a season during the 29-year Bill Dewitt Jr. era. And Helsley’s WPA was the third best by a Cards reliever in a season during the expansion era, which began in 1961. The only higher WPAs were turned in by Al Hrabosky in 1975, and Bruce Sutter in 1984.

Helsley set such a tremendously high standard in 2024, I just wonder if he can repeat it. That’s asking a lot of him. But if he stays healthy, he’ll be the most valuable performer on the 2025 Cardinals.

+ Andrew Kittredge is gone, signing a two-year free-agent contract with the Orioles. The sturdy set-up man led the NL with 37 holds last season and was often the eighth-inning bridge that led to Helsley. Kittredge had a 2.04 ERA in the 8th inning last season, and held batters to a .188 average and .561 OPS in close-late situations. This is a big loss for the St. Louis bullpen.

+ Eight of the top nine Cards relievers – based on most innings pitched – are back in 2025. That will help ease the sting of losing Kittredge. But even with Kittredge, the Cardinals ranked 22nd in the majors with a 22 percent bullpen strikeout rate. The group just doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d like to see … though that could change if a few high-velocity sources have more important roles in 2025. That heat list would include Matthew Liberatore, prospect Tekoah Roby, and Riley O’Brien.

+ We’ll be monitoring JoJo Romero. The Cardinals once again will rely on the lefty as a crucial late-inning force, and JoJo had 30 holds in 2024. But fatigue or physical discomfort got to him after his great start to the season. Romero did bounce back later in the season, but here are the facts: Romero had a poor 18% strikeout rate over the final five months last season … and a 5.17 ERA over the final four months. The Cardinals do have two other lefties set to lean on: Liberatore and John King. And there’s always a chance of starter Steven Matz being transferred to the bullpen again in 2025.

+ How important were Kittredge and Romero at getting the save opportunity to Helsley? Either Romero or Kittredge worked the eighth inning in 38 of Helsley’s 49 saves. And when one of them pitched the eighth, the other was often used in the seventh inning.

+ Liberatore looms as a key piece, and potential standout. Once the Cardinals stopped shuffling Linbby from the bullpen to being a starter to going back to the bullpen, he did very well late in the season with a 2.67 ERA and a 25.4% strikeout rate during the final two months. In the surge, Liberatore (a lefty) iced left-handed hitters with a 27% strikeout rate, faced 52 LH batters without allowing a run, and held them to a .224 batting average. But he’s still wrestling with right-handed batters; they popped him for a .433 slugging percentage over the final two months.

+ Down the stretch, Liberatore worked five 8th innings to set up Helsley’s saves – an indication of the higher level of trust put on him by Marmol. This could have been a preview of his role in ’25.

+ Ryan Fernandez had a fantastic rookie season in 2024 after being selected in the Rule V Draft from Boston. (Thanks, Chaim Bloom.) Fernandez, 26, had an assassin slider that got hitters to bat .182 with a 41 percent whiff-swing rate. He has to have a better shape on his four-seam fastball in 2025. Last season the workload caused Fernandez to labor in July and August, and his strikeout rate fizzled. But in the other four months of the season, the right-hander had a 2.62 ERA and 28% strikeout rate.

In his second big-league season will Fernandez be ready to move into the high-leverage spots handled so gracefully by Kittredge in 2024? We’ll see. He’s good. But last season Fernandez was called in to handle the eighth inning only two times before handing it over to Helsley for the save.

The Job Watch

Unless injuries disrupt the plans, five bullpen spots are sealed in: Helsley, Fernandez, Liberatore, Romero and ground-ball machine lefty John King.

I asked my friend and KMOX colleague Matt Pauley – a regular in Camp Jupiter – to provide clarity on the competition. Basically, three spots are unclaimed, and seven right-handed relievers are getting after it: Gordon Graceffo, Tekoah Roby, Chris Roycroft, Riley O’Brien, Kyle Leahy, Nick Anderson and Roddery Munoz. That roll call of the seven righties isn’t a ranking.

Graceffo and Roby have been very impressive through the team’s first 10 exhibition games. Roycroft was strong against RH batters last season but got rocked by left-handed hitters. Is he coming up with anything to neutralize LH bats?

O’Brien has blistering velocity, but that also caused breakdowns. In 10 major-league appearances for three teams, O’Brien has an 11.25 ERA – but his strikeout ratio of 12.4 Ks per nine innings is compelling. But O’Brien isn’t a “kid.” He turned 30 years old last month. If he’s going to build a major-league career, this is the perfect time to do it.

Leahy did a fine, underrated job last season of layering multiple innings in an appearance to protect other relievers from overuse; he covered more than an inning in 20 of his 33 appearances. Leahy is vulnerable against LH batters, but his 2024 profile included a couple of gems: A) he allowed a .225 average and .621 OPS in late-and-close situations; and B) in high-leverage spots Leahy was nicked for a .217 average and .556 OPS. In other words he was better in pressurized conditions than I would have assumed.

Munoz throws really hard … but has a 6.53 ERA in the majors, without much strikeout punch, and Memphis seems like a logical place for him to dig in at the start of the 2025 season.

Three Questions …

1. Can Nick Anderson become a high-value bargain find? Anything is possible. And for the cheap price of a minor-league contract the Cardinals wanted to take a look. Anderson, who turns 35 in July, is trying to regenerate his career after flaming out.

In his first 87 major-league relief appearances  Anderson had a preposterous 42.2 percent strikeout rate. That wasn’t sustainable … and damage ensued.

Here’s the list of Anderson’s list of injuries starting with the 2020 season:

* 12 days, forearm
* 164 days, elbow
* 7 days, lower-back strain
* 137 days, elbow
* 15 days, foot
* 81 days, shoulder strain

Bringing Anderson in was a no-risk gamble. I hope the poor dude can pitch without suffering any additional physical breakdowns. But if we pay attention to early spring-training stats – and I think they’re relevant in Anderson’s case – it isn’t encouraging. In three appearances covering 2.1 innings, Anderson has faced 14 hitters. And they’ve smacked him for six hits, five earned runs, a homer, and three walks. His Grapefruit League ERA is 19.29.

Anderson may require time in Memphis to get grooving … if there is a groove. But I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals to give Anderson a big-league job over one of their young relievers, but that would also require putting Anderson on the 40-man roster.

2. What about Helsley’s trade value? Three things could tamp down the interest in the valuable closer before the July 31 deadline: A) an injury; B) a concerning drop in velo and performance; and C) the qualifying-offer aspect of acquiring him. A team that deals for Helsley after the All-Star break would NOT be eligible to make a qualifying offer to him after the season, and thus will receive no draft-pick compensation if he signs a free-agent deal with another club. The absence of a qualifying offer could lower Helsley’s overall value on the market; it really depends on the team(s) that really covet him. Hopefully Helsley can stay healthy and sturdy and cash in on free agency after the season. He’s a good guy.

3. If 2025 is a “runway” season set up to give opportunities to younger hitters and pitchers, wouldn’t that mean early-season bullpen spots for Roby and Graceffo? And wouldn’t Liberatore – who looks fabulous so far this spring – be strongly considered for a rotation spot? Answer: it isn’t a true “runway” season. It’s just another marketing pitch to keep fans interested, and the Cards manager and front office (and media) overuse the term so much, it’s more of a season-campaign slogan than anything else.

That said, if Graceffo isn’t in the big-league bullpen on opening day, you’ll have to excuse me for giggling about this “runway” babbling. But I think he’ll earn a place. As for Roby, he has a chance to pitch his way into the major-league bullpen sooner than expected, but the Cardinals can justify sending him to Memphis by telling us he’ll be “stretching out” as a potential starter. See, here’s the problem: it’s difficult to trust their words, and frankly it has made me more cynical than I’d like to be. If 2025 evolves into an actual “runway” season I’ll be happy to give the front office credit. Delighted, even.

In Conclusion …

The 2025 bullpen has talent and some potential new additions that have been showing out in camp. But a lot of positives must kick in for the 2025 bullpen to resemble the last year’s emergency squad. I believe there will be a higher level of mayhem in 2025 — simply because I don’t think ’24 can be repeated. I

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about: of the teams that had a Top 10 Win Probability ranking in 2023, only five repeated that in 2024. Toronto went from 3rd to 28th. Baltimore went from 6th to 17th. Seattle went from 9th to 21st, and Pittsburgh was 24th in WPA after being 10th the previous year.

Helsley will have to come up big again. Fernandez will have to prove he can be a reliable high-leverage guy, and he walked too many hitters when deployed in high-lev joints in ‘24. Romero’s swing-and-miss component must be consistently strong. Liberatore has a chance to become a towering presence in eighth-inning hold opportunities, and that would make him more valuable in a relief role. But he’ll have to deliver. The assortment of younger relief candidates have to prove they’re ready for the show. I guess there’s always a chance of the front office adding a stray free agent reliever. Marmol was superlative in his bullpen maneuvers last season – and now he must do it again.

Thanks for reading …

And as always, pardon my typos.

–Bernie