Hello, again. I am looking forward to Sunday. I’ll have some chili on the stove, cold beverages in the fridge, and the TV set will be ready to go when it’s time to snap the football. It’s AFC-NFC Championship Sunday, my favorite doubleheader on the annual sports calendar.
In the NFC Championship, the spirited Washington Commanders (14-5) will enter Philadelphia’s fearsome steel-cage venue – it is no place for the timid – with a fearless attitude in a bid to bury the Eagles and enrage the home team’s overserved fans.
In the AFC Championship – dubbed the “Arrowhead Invitational” – the Buffalo Bills will try (again) to overtake the Kansas City Chiefs’ formidable garrison and reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 season.
It is a Sunday of Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley vs. all 11 men on the defense, and Jayden Daniels vs. history.
May the best teams win. And good luck to the Buffalo Bills in their effort to defeat the game officials and the Chiefs on their visit to Missouri.
Here are a few preliminary notes for you to sample while I warm up on the sideline.
* The top seeds in conference championship games are 20-5 outright since 2003. This applies to Kansas City and Philadelphia.
* Teams hosting the conference championship game have gone 17-5 straight up during the previous 11 seasons
* The Chiefs have covered the point spread in nine of their last 11 postseason games.
* Kansas City has eliminated Buffalo in three of the last four postseasons.
* Jayden Daniels is attempting to become only the fifth rookie starting quarterback since the 1970 merger to win three games in a postseason. And his first two wins were on the road. Related note: Josh Allen (0-3) and Jalen Hurts (0-2) are a combined 0-5 in postseason road games.
* Washington has won as many postseason games in the last two weeks (2) as the franchise won over the previous 25 seasons, 1999 through 2023.
* Mahomes has 16 career postseason wins. The other three quarterbacks who will start Sunday – Allen, Daniels and Hurts, have 13 career postseason victories combined. And this is only Mahomes’ seventh season as KC’s starter.
* Mahomes’ playoff record is 16-1 against opponents that didn’t have Tom Brady starting at quarterback. Other than Brady, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is the only other QB to take down Mahomes in a postseason game. And Burrow needed overtime to do it.
* Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season are 3-15 straight up (16.7% and 7-11 against the spread (38.9%) in conference title games. I bring this up because Washington had 12 regular-season wins – and the Buffalo had 13 – in the 2024 regular season.
* As you’ve undoubtedly heard, the Chiefs will be competing in their 7th consecutive AFC Championship Game. If Kansas City prevails, the dynasty will roll into the Super Bowl for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
NFC, WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA
On the television box: 2 p.m. STL time, on Fox
Point spread: At the time I type this, the Eagles are a six-point favorite in the clash of NFC East rivals.
The Skinny: The teams split the regular-season series 1-1, with both winning at home. But the Eagles lost at Washington after Hurts got knocked out with a concussion in the first quarter. The Eagles led 21-7 after the first quarter and were up by 13 points through three quarters, but Daniels rallied the Commanders with a 22-point gush of fourth-quarter points to air-lift his team to a 36-33 victory. Daniels threw for five touchdowns on the afternoon. Earlier in the season the Eagles defeated Washington 26-18 at home but Daniels was physically limited as he competed through discomfort of a percent rib injury.
Trending: Including the playoffs, the Eagles are 10-1 at home this season. But the Commanders have won seven in a row, a streak that includes postseason wins at Tampa and Detroit. Washington has won nine games this season by a margin of six points or fewer. Including the wild-card round win at Tampa Bay, Daniels has orchestrated five fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives.
What I’m watching out for: Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and his plans to cool Daniels off. Philly has the league’s top-rated defense but Daniels didn’t flinch in the 36-33 win over the Iggles on Dec. 22. Fangio probably picked up some intel that he’ll use in Sunday’s game. In Washington’s seven-game win streak, Daniels has zipped 17 touchdown passes and rushed for 422 yards. He’s special.
What I like about the Commanders: of the four quarterbacks slinging it on Sunday, Daniels comes in with the hottest hand and a remarkable combination of elite talent, poise and confidence. He firmly believes he will win every game, and his teammates believe in him. In the 19 regular season and playoffs combined, Daniels has aired it out for 4,135 yards passing and 29 touchdowns … and has rushed for 978 yards and six scores.
What I like about the Eagles: There’s the Fangio defense. But more than anything, there’s Saquon Barkley. He rushed for 2,005 yards in his 16 regular-season games, and added 324 in two postseason romps. And no playmaker has more explosive plays this season than Barkley. Combining regular-season and postseason yards from scrimmage – which includes receiving yards – Barkley has produced 2,638 yards and 17 touchdowns. Philadelphia’s offensive line is the best in the NFL but their excellent starting center may not be able to go Sunday.
Why I don’t trust the Eagles: Despite having a 4-0 turnover edge, Philadelphia needed two fourth-quarter field goals to put away Green Bay. And despite a 2-0 turnover edge at home in the snow against the west coast Rams, the Eagles hung on to beat the Rams by six. And Jalen Hurts doesn’t look right since returning from his concussion, and he banged up a knee in the win over Los Angeles. This doesn’t mean Hurts can’t make plays and have a good game, but even then the Commanders have the best quarterback starting in this game based on all that Daniels has done this season. And his postseason form (unlike Hurts) has been superb.
Why I don’t trust the Commanders: The most vulnerable unit left in the postseason is Washington’s defense, and the best run-stuffing D-tackle Daron Payne, won’t play Sunday because of injury. In the DVOA metric, this is the 23rd ranked defense in the NFL. I will say this: the defense has improved somewhat, but can the Commanders do an effective job? According to FTN analyst Aaron Schatz, their overall defensive DVOA has improved from 7.8% before their Week 14 bye to -5.0%, shooting up from 27th overall to 10th. That makes this interesting. As Schatz noted, the tougher defense came against a couple of backup quarterbacks. So the statistical improvement may be (as Schatz said) “a mirage.”
Who wins it: Close. But Philly survives. This is a nasty challenge for Washington, but they’ll ride into Philly on the Jayden Express. But the home team has that No. 1 defense and Barkley. And though Washington blew out Detroit in Motown last weekend, the Lions rumbled for 201 yards rushing and 8.7 yards per attempt. In the two previous scrums with Washington, Barkley rushed for 296 yards and four touchdowns. The interesting part of that, according to FTN’s Schatz: 26 of Barkley’s 55 runs went for only two yards or fewer. And among the 14 backs that had at least 10 rushing attempts vs. Washington this season, Barkley’s success rate ranked 10th among those 14. Huh. The Commanders showed that it is possible to fill the run gaps and put up a blockade, and that will be successful — well until it isn’t. Barkley led the league in explosive runs this season, and he found ways to crack those loaded boxes for breakaway sprints.
Who covers the spread: This will be close. If I were a gamblin’ man on this one, I’d take Washington plus the six point as a nod to Daniels’ excellence.
AFC, BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY
On the television box: 2 p.m. STL time, on CBS.
Point spread: At the time I type this, the Chiefs are a two-point favorite.
The Skinny: The Bills pummeled the Chiefs, 31-10, on Nov. 17 in Buffalo. But that was a different time and place. Kansas City was dragging – but somehow still winning – and the outcome at Buffalo seemed inevitable. It was a so-called statement game for the Bills. For the Chiefs, it was more like a “when do the playoffs start?” type of exercise. I honestly don’t think that game has much if any relevance to Sunday’s AFC title matchup.
Trending: Going back to late in the 2023 season, and including the postseason, the Chiefs are 21-2 in their last 23 games. In regular-season and postseason games started by Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs are 105-26 for an .800 winning percentage. Since the start of the 2018 season – by then, both Allen and Mahomes were starting at QB for their teams – the Chiefs and Bills rank No. 1 and No. 2 (respectively) in most wins, combined, during the regular season and playoffs. But the Chiefs continue to stand in the way of Buffalo’s march to the Super Bowl. In a statistic that must torment the Bills and their fans, Allen is 4-1 against Mahomes when the duel during the regular season – but 0-3 against Mahomes in postseason showdowns. When Allen has played against a quarterback other than Mahomes in the playoffs, his record is 7-2. Is this the year when Allen, his team, and Bills Mafia break on through to the other side?
What I’m watching out for: Allen is a terrific quarterback – passing and running – but he doesn’t always have the most reliable set of receivers. That shows up most often on the road. The Bills were 5-4 away from their New York madhouse, and among the 28 NFL quarterbacks that attempted at least 150 passes on the road this season, Allen ranked 24th in completion percentage, 12th in passer rating, and threw fewer road touchdown passes (11) than Aaron Rodgers. As a group, Bills receivers ranked 25th among the 32 teams in success rate. The Bills had a lively rushing attack in last week’s win over Baltimore, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been using sets that have six offensive linemen muscling up to mash defenses on the ground. And I was surprised to discover that – at home – the Kansas City run defense has the lowest “stuff” rate among the 32 teams and is ranked in the middle of the pack in its rate of successful run stops. And Bills running back James Cook is dangerous and underrated and an asset in the passing game … I’ll also be watching to see the insane blitz packages concocted by Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. I could be wrong (obviously) but I think the Bills will try to chew up the home team with the running game. Keep in mind, Buffalo fended off Baltimore to win last week’s game with Allen passing for only 127 yards … but he dashed for two TD romps.
One thing we’ll all be watching: after so much whining and bellowing after last week’s Houston vs. Kansas City division-round game, will Sunday’s officiating crew overcompensate in response to accusations that Mahomes and the Chiefs benefit from special treatment on penalty calls – especially those that involve hits on Mahomes? The Chiefs don’t need the refs to win games, and Houston’s post-game mewling about the officials was embarrassing. Sorry, fellas, but you can’t blame officials for the loss at KC when you (1) marched up and down the field but scored only one touchdown on eight offensive possessions; (2) were pillaged for eight sacks including SEVEN in the fourth quarter; (3) missed three field goal attempts; and (4) gave up a long kickoff return that set up an early Chiefs field goal.
What I like about the Bills: Allen is due for a postseason win over Mahomes. Yes, Buffalo is 0-3 against Kansas City in three postseason conflicts but don’t blame Allen for that. In the three losses he completed 65 percent of his passes, threw for seven touchdowns, got intercepted one time, and has a passer rating of 99.0. And when Allen took off on runs the three games, he rushed for 228 yards with two touchdowns and 15 first downs. Allen will give the Bills a great chance to win. But he can’t do it alone.
What I like about the Chiefs: Let’s stick with the quarterbacks. In his 13 career postseason home games, Mahomes is 11-2 with a pile of magnificent numbers: 67.5% completion percentage; 32 touchdowns and three interceptions; 111.8 passer rating, 3,785 yards passing; 332 yards rushing.
Why I don’t trust the Bills: I’ll keep it short. I don’t think the defense is great. Or aggressive enough. Buffalo ranks near the bottom of the NFL in blitz percentage, and plays a lot of safe-variety nickel defenses. That said, the two-high look has given Mahomes problems this season … and Mahomes has been less effective against the nickel; he prefers to go against a base defense. Problem? The Bills’ secondary is banged up at safety, which could mean lots of catches for KC tight end Travis Kelce.
Why I don’t trust the Chiefs: They’ve been living too close to the edge in too many games this season. They can’t keep getting themselves into trouble and keep making these “Mission Impossible” escapes, right? It’s unusual to look at the NFL rankings on offense and see the Chiefs sitting out of the top 10 in so many categories including their 17th ranking in yards per pass attempt. And then there is the matter of turnovers. The Bills are fantastic with a plus-24 turnover differential, best in the NFL. The Buffalo offense has given away the ball only eight times all season. The Chiefs have 14 giveaways and a plus-six in the turnover differential.
Who wins it: This is Buffalo’s best opportunity for a postseason triumph over its nemesis; the Chiefs have never been this vulnerable from snap to snap during the Reid-Mahomes Era. And I find it hard to believe the Bills will let tight end Travis Kelce roam the middle of the field, uncovered. But … good grief, I can’t pick the Chiefs to lose this game, at home, when they’re pursuing a third straight Super Bowl title and are totally locked in mentally. This a winning thoroughbred horse that may have a rough trip but finds a way to get to the finish line first – even if it’s just by a nose.
Who covers the point spread: I’ll go with the Chiefs and lay the two points.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the games …
–Bernie