I think it’s time for me to come out of retirement on the investment front and make some NFL predictions. The divisional-round playoffs are upon us. On my YouTube channel, I’ve done well selecting College Football Playoff games, going 10-0 straight up and 6-4 against the point spread.

My first predictions:

1. St. Louis sports fans will once again pump up big TV ratings for Saturday’s Houston at Kansas City Chiefs game.

2. The whiners will go on social media caterwaul about this unforgivable act of treason. And they will insist that no one cares about the NFL here in St. Louis. And they don’t even see the irony in this. Because, of course, they are TALKING ABOUT THE NFL instead of simply ignoring it. Go figure.

3. A local media columnist or gab-show host will shamelessly shame the fans (here in St. Louis) for liking the Chiefs. Evidently these click-bait specials are an effective platform for pandering to those who say they hate the NFL, hate the Chiefs, hate whatever it is they hate that also emboldens them to dictate to others … what we are allowed to watch, what we are prohibited from watching. This is framed as some kind of idiotic loyalty test. The pandering doesn’t work, because the CHIEFS TV RATINGS KEEP GOING UP IN THE STL MARKET.

4. I will once again state my view on this: I’ll watch what I want to watch, and I really don’t give a damn whether you like it or not. You don’t control me, or my TV set. This is America. We are a free people. I’m a sports fan. I’m a sportswriter. I talk sports on the radio and on my YouTube channel. I am a student of sports history. And when you have one of the great coach-quarterback combinations in NFL history rolling through a remarkable run of success … and going for a third straight Super Bowl title … yeah, I think I’ll watch it. And I would be watching every single game of a team that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Andy Reid as head coach. The fact that they are doing this for a team that represents Kansas City is irrelevant to me, because I am not someone who hates on another city for no good reason whatsoever. My experiences in Kansas City have been enjoyable, and I’ve always been treated well there. I am not an angry toddler who was raised — or something — to despise KC. Some of us actually manage to advance into  adulthood.

5. And then this moronic cycle will be repeated, many times, as the whiners inexplicably allow Stan Kroenke to have a permanent residence in their heads … when it would be a lot healthier for them to get on with their lives and quit worrying about what I choose to click on my remote control. These folks continue to let Kroenke win. It is truly bizarre.

HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. St. Louis time
Point spread: Chiefs favored by 8

The Chiefs have been winning on the edge all season. They’ve won 16 consecutive games decided by one possession. Mahomes is 20-1 in his last 21 starts. The Chiefs are healthier than they’ve been for some time. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has his top 18 defensive players available for the first time since early in the season. Because of that the Chiefs will likely play more man coverage, and Spags will be dialing up blitzes to swarm Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. When pressured this season, Stroud has a 75.0 passer rating (not good), has completed only 48 percent of his passes (not good) and has been sacked 52 times (ouch.)

The Chiefs will win. Andy Reid has an excellent record when the Chiefs return from a bye or a break in the schedule. That applies in this game. But will the Chiefs cover the eight-point betting spread against a very good Houston defense?

The Texans have strained to score points on offense, averaging just under 22 points per game. Here’s a note from data man Steve Makinen: road teams scoring less than 22.5 points per game have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 straight up and 11-24 against the spread (31.4%) since 2009.

My straight up pick to win: Kansas City.

My point-spread pick: Kansas City to cover.

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WASHINGTON at DETROIT
Saturday, 7 p.m. St. Louis time
Point spread: Lions, favored by 9.

We should expect lots of points. The Lions finished the regular season third in EPA/play and the Commanders were right behind them at No. 4. Detroit scored points on 51.6% of their offensive possessions during the regular season and Washington was just about there with a 50% scoring rate on their drives.

I give the Commanders a real shot at the upset. The Lions defense was 28th in EPA/play from Week 13 through Week 18, and Jayden Daniels should be able to make enough big plays to keep this one close. But Washington doesn’t have a great defense, either. The Lions and quarterback Jared Goff have more playmakers and between-the-tackles running back David Montgomery is expected to return to the lineup for Saturday’s game. The Lions have the second-best passing game in the NFL (per EPA) and should dizzy up the league’s 16th-ranked pass defense (per EPA).

Jayden Daniels is cool under pressure. He’s extremely versatile. He’s extremely confident. But the Commanders don’t have a strong ground game, the pass rush is so-so, and the Lions have too much offensive firepower for the visitors. But I decline to bet against Daniels … he will find a way to keep it pretty close.

My straight-up pick to win: Detroit.

My point-spread pick: Washington to cover.

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LOS ANGELES (RAMS) at PHILADELPHIA
Sunday, 2 p.m. St. Louis time
Point spread: Eagles favored by 6.

This is a tough matchup for the Rams, who will be taking on a physically dominant defense in weather that could be cold and miserable. I checked the latest forecast on Friday at 5:45 St. Louis time, and I’ll just pass along these two bits of information.

– Bitterly cold temperatures incoming.

– A cold front will move in from the south and west around noon on Sunday and become more widespread as the afternoon continues.

I’m making this too simple, but this matchup pits a West Coast, warm-weather, dome-covered team against an East Coast gang that plays outdoor football and is comfortable working in raw, rowdy elements.

And while the Rams defense has definitely improved in recent weeks, we must remember what happened in Week 12 in Los Angeles: Eagles 37, Rams 20. The barbarians from Philly rushed for 314 yards, the second-highest total by a team in an NFL game this season. All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley smashed the Rams for 255 yards rushing, 47 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Philadelphia’s excellent offensive line cleared paths for Barkley to attack LA’s undersized defensive tackles.

From a Philly angle, three things are worrisome: (1) LA’s Sean McVay is the superior head coach in this game, (2) Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts does not appear to be sharp after returning from a concussion, and (3) the Rams are 9-3 when wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are in the starting lineup together. And that tandem will be operational on Sunday. I should also include this: though he’s played all of his NFL career home games inside domed stadiums, Rams QB Matthew Stafford has actually performed outdoors in winter weather.

The Eagles didn’t put a lot on Hurts last week, and all but put the passing game on hold. But I think Philadelphia is best suited to win a cold-weather game through the services of Barkley, that punishing offensive line, and a defense that was the No. 2 in the league during the second half of the season.

My straight-up pick to win: Philadelphia.

My point-spread pick: Philadelphia.

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BALTIMORE at BUFFALO
Sunday at 5:30 p.m. St. Louis time
Point spread: Ravens favored by 1 and ½ points.

This is the big one. Before I pick a winner, let’s pause for a few moments to appreciate the anticipated excitement and joy of watching quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Josh Allen (Bills) have a fantastic duel that will advance the winner to the AFC Championship Game.

A few fact nuggets, courtesy of VSIN:

+ Jackson and Allen are the top two quarterbacks in regular-season winning percentage during the Super Bowl era that have not yet played in the Super Bowl start. This is a legacy game for them. In this era, when we try to rank the greatest quarterbacks, Super Bowl wins matter. And for the losing QB in this game, another opportunity to earn a Super Bowl ring will slip away.

+ This 2024 league MVP will play quarterback in this game. Voting closed at the end of the regular season, so Sunday’s outcome isn’t pertinent in the MVP balloting. But one of these dudes will win the MVP, and the other will finish second. That’s a lock.

+ This is the first postseason matchup – ever – between quarterbacks with 40+ total touchdowns and fewer than 10 turnovers during the regular season.

+ This is the first postseason QB matchup that features both starters, Allen and Jackson, that had 40+ total touchdowns, 500+ rushing yards, and fewer than seven interceptions in a season. And Jackson and Allen are the top two quarterbacks in league history for most career postseason rushing yards.

The pressure is turned up. The Ravens have 78 regular-season wins since Mahomes became KC’s starting quarterback in 2018. The Bills have 77 reg-season wins during the same time span. Both quarterbacks are fully focused on Sunday’s game, but there’s an excellent chance of the winner moving on to have another chance to defeat Mahomes in Kansas City. And such a victory would put either Jackson or Allen into their first Super Bowl. There is a lot at stake Sunday evening.

I have dawdled in trying to make up my mind in this one. Bills are undefeated at home this season and Allen has been unstoppable in his backyard.

The Ravens stomped the Bills at home earlier this season, with running back Derrick Henry running free in a blow-out victory. And Buffalo might get flattened by Henry again.

Lamar Jackson hasn’t really distinguished himself in the postseason. His performance in the easy first-round win over the Steelers last week was impressive, but the Steelers were a faded-out team. But he’s never been as great as he is right now, approaching this high-stakes contest. That said, Jackson won’t have his best receiver (Zay Flowers) available to play (for the second consecutive game) because of a knee injury.

After a weak start to the season, the Ravens defense has turned into a beast. Since Week 11, they rank at the top of the NFL in just about all of the meaningful defensive metrics.

Derrick Henry road-graded the Bills defense for 199 rushing yards in that 35-10 wipeout during the regular season. His presence has made a difference in how teams try to defend Jackson. In the past, defenses were focused on stopping Jackson, and the Baltimore running game was a much lesser concern. And now? A defense has to fret over Jackson AND Henry. I think that matters.

Buffalo’s run defense is unusual for a reason: it is one of the best units in the league at stuffing runs up front. But when the offense breaks containment at the line of scrimmage and gets to the next level of the defense, the Bills have been really bad at bringing the runner down. It’s one of the worst second-level and third-level run defenses in the NFL.

Flip a coin! Maybe.

My straight-up pick: Baltimore.

My point-spread pick: Baltimore.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful weekend.

–Bernie