Welcome To The Redbird Review
Monday night at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals opened a critical 20-game stretch of soft-schedule baseball. This is their opportunity to recover from their recent pains and problems.
A beaten-down St. Louis team can revitalize by beating up others. Instead of continuing to get slapped around and bullied by superior teams the Cardinals can play the role of ruffian.
This itinerary of rumbles against Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Arizona and Colorado gives the Cardinals a chance to pump up the Happy Talk.
The end-the-misery mission got off to a positive start with Monday’s 4-2 victory over the Marlins. This briefly eased the trauma of the lost, lacerating weekend at Wrigley Field. For the Cardinals, Monday’s success must be repeated many times over during the next three weeks.
Because if the Cardinals fail to stack wins on the backs of six opponents that are a combined 84 games under .500 on this fine Tuesday morning, then it’s probably back to the fainting couch.
After the Cardinals get to go outside and play with the Marlins, Braves, Tigers, Pirates, Diamondbacks and Rockies, they’ll have to bandage up for a 13-game grind against the Giants and the Cubs. At least there will be a breather; the All-Star Game rest stop separates the San Francisco-Chicago challenge into two parts.
After breaking a 2-2 tie on Monday to win late, the Cardinals are 17-5 against teams with a losing record. The Redbirds are 16-28 vs. opponents with a winning record.
That’s a clean divide.
12 games over .500 vs. the down teams.
12 games under .500 vs. the strong teams.
That’s why it’s imperative for the Cardinals to pounce and thrive between now and the 4th of July.
QUICK CHECK ON THE NL CENTRAL: The Cardinals are back to .500 (33-33) and gained a game on the Brewers (38-28) and Cubs (38-28), who lead St. Louis by 5 and Cincinnati by 4 … the Cubs do have a credibility issue: Monday’s loss to the NY Mets at Citi Field left Chicago with a 14-18 record on the road, compared to 24-10 at home … that said, the Cubs have won 28 of their last 38 games overall, and are 15-6 in the last 21. The Brewers took a 10-2 beating at Cincinnati on Monday, but the slip didn’t change their trajectory; the Crew is 17-5 in the last 22 … the Reds (33-31) have won four in a row and are 9-2 since the beginning of the four-game series in St. Louis … the poor Pittsburgh Pirates (23-42) are 6-20 since May 16 and have lost seven straight.
WAINO DOES IT AGAIN: He wasn’t as sharp as we’ve seen from him, but Adam Wainwright had his usual savvy and competitive drive to get through, and the Marlins were baffled by his assortment of pitches.
Wainwright had a swinging-strike rate of 9.5 percent, his best in a start since April 26 vs. Philadelphia (11.2%). And a 60 percent ground-ball rate helped Wainwright stay in control of the competition. His pitching line: 6 IP, 4 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.
Wainwright has a 3.15 ERA in three June starts. In the nine games started by other Cardinals this month, the collective ERA is 9.34.
WAINO’S HOME COOKING: Wainwright has a 2.66 ERA at Busch Stadium this season (nine starts) and an 8.20 ERA in his four road starts. Since returning to full pitching health in 2019, Wainwright is 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA in 31 starts at home. But on the road over that time, he’s 9-9 with a 5.88 ERA in 23 starts.
PROTECTING THE LEAD: Despite the alarming inconsistency and shaky numbers that we’ve seen from the Cards’ middle-innings relievers, the late-inning guardians continue to excel. And because of that, the Cardinals have done an outstanding job of protecting leads with their last line of defense in relievers Genesis Cabrera, Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes. And we should make sure to value their work.
When the Cardinals take a lead into the 7th inning this season, their record is 28-0. When they take a lead into the 8th, it’s 27-1. And the Cards are 28-0 with a lead carried into the 9th.
Unless they are unavailable to pitch on a specific day, the three relievers have lined up and taken hold of late-inning leads. And they don’t let go.
In games won by the Cardinals this season, Cabrera, Gallegos and Reyes have combined for 73.2 innings of exceptional relief, allowing only seven earned runs for an 0.85 ERA.
Reyes is 17 for 17 in save opportunities; in those situations his ERA is 0.35. Gallegos has a 1.67 ERA in St. Louis wins (27 innings.) And Cabrera’s ERA in victorious games is 0.43 in 21 innings.
Cabrera, Gallegos and Reyes.
Three knockout punches.
The only regret is the pattern of the Cardinals falling behind early, unable to catch up and snatch the lead. Because that means limited appearances from the three-man shield. Give these enforcers a late lead, and it’s basically over.
EVIDENCE OF TYLER O’NEILL’S IMPROVEMENT: In his first three years as an up-and-down left fielder for the Cardinals, O’Neill was overmatched when batting against higher-quality pitchers. But that hasn’t been the case so far in 2021.
— When O’Neill faced pitchers with an ERA of 4.25 or less from 2018 through 2020, he batted .176 with a .585 OPS and homered every 26 at-bats.
— This season O’Neill is batting .240 against higher-caliber pitching and has a good .846 OPS. And: he’s homered every 14.2 at-bats. That .240 may not seem like much to you, but it compares favorably to other Cardinal hitters. Paul Goldschmidt is batting .215 this season against the same category of pitchers. Molina is at .245. Dylan Carlson is at .204. Paul DeJong is at .137. Among STL regulars, Tommy Edman (.268) and Nolan Arenado (.277) have done the best against higher-caliber pitchers.
— When O’Neill goes up against a pitcher that has an ERA between 3.51 and 4.25, he has a .303 average and 1.010 OPS. He’s homered three times in 33 at-bats.
O’Neill had two doubles in Monday’s win including the eighth-inning shot that gave the Cardinals a 3-2 lead.
Among the 189 MLB hitters that have at least 175 plate appearances this season, Bro’Neill is tied for 10th in homers (15), tied for 23rd in batting average (.291), is 4th in slugging (.630), 3rd in ISO (.355) and 8th in OPS (.960.) He’s also 8th in park-and-league adjusted runs created; his rate is 61 percent above league average offensively.
WAS IT JUST ME? Or was Busch Stadium a little quiet on Monday night? Plenty of good seats available.
KUDOS TO EDMUNDO SOSA: He deserved (and earned) considerable praise for his terrific all-around play while moving in at shortstop during Paul DeJong’s stay on the IL with a cracked rib. But DeJong returned in time for the Cards’ series at Wrigley Field, and Sosa returned to the bench. Sosa did see some action against the Cubs, but didn’t start any of the three games.
Sosa was slotted into the lineup at second base on Monday night, and he responded with another quality performance. Sosa went 2 for 4 and drove in a run. He played terrific defense and conspired with catcher Yadier Molina in a sneaky, brilliantly executed pickoff of a Miami runner at first base. This dude continues to impress.
In 25 starts covering 94 plate appearances this season Sosa is batting .306 with a .785 OPS. This includes 26 hits (five for extra bases), six walks, and five times hit by pitches.
Fielding Bible credits Sosa with 6 defensive runs saved at shortstop; that’s tied for second-best at the position even though Sosa has played only 219.2 innings there. Sosa is a +6 fielder on balls hit to his right, and a +4 defender on balls hit to his left. That’s a sign of excellent range.
According to the Statcast data at Baseball Savant, Sosa rates in the 98th percentile for sprint speed, is in the 94th percentile for max exit velocity, and is in the 93rd percentile in fielding for Outs Above Average. Just superb.
ABOUT TOMMY EDMAN’S VERSATILITY: It’s certainly a plus to have a player that plays above-average defense at two positions, second base and right field. And he can fill in at shortstop or elsewhere in the outfield if necessary. Edman played a lot of third base until Nolan Arenado was acquired from the Rockies.
But for whatever it’s worth, I wonder if the moving around this has any impact on Edman’s offense.
In 195 plate appearances as a shortstop this season, Edman has a .283 batting average and .744 OPS.
In 84 PA as a right fielder, Edman has a .238 average and .636 OPS.
He’s only had 17 PA as a shortstop this season, batting .188 with a .423 OPS.
For Edman’s MLB career:
- In 329 plate appearance as a second baseman: .809 OPS.
- In 173 PA as a right fielder: .658 OPS
- In 263 PA as a third basemen: .783 OPS.
- In 66 PA as a shortstop, .493 OPS.
Interesting. Or not. But his offensive numbers are strong at 2B and 3B, and weak when deployed in RF or SS.
NEXT ON THE SKED: The Cardinals will tango with an outstanding starter tonight. That would be 23-year-old LH Trevor Rogers, who is 7-3 with a 2.02 ERA. The Cardinals defeated him in Miami during the first week of the season, with Rogers allowing two earned runs, two hits and four walks in 4 IP. But in 12 starts since then Rogers has a 1.88 ERA, and hasn’t been touched for more than two earned runs in a game since May 2. For the Cardinals? Welcome back. K.K. Kim. We hope the back holds up, sir.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.
The weekly “Seeing Red” podcast with Bernie and Will Leitch is also available at 590thefan.com.
Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
