Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Dose Of Perspective On The Cardinals’ Current Downturn.

The Cardinals, straying from their successful pedigree, have come up short over the past two seasons, ranking 22nd among the 30 major–league teams in winning percentage and failing to reach the playoffs for the last two years.

I don’t know. Perhaps missing the playoffs wasn’t such a horrible thing for the locals; the Redbirds have been vitriolized by angry fans for their 5-14 postseason record since the start of 2015. That includes STL’s 1-9 stain in their last 10 October-tournament games.

In this space I’ve written many columns pointing to the clear reasons for the competitive downturn. The St. Louis strong farm-and-player development system decayed. That damaged a major-league roster foundation that must be supported and shaped by talent developed within.

Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak were largely responsible for that decline. The neglect caused young pitchers and hitters to graduate to the majors without benefiting from copious teaching, instruction and preparation.

The Cards let their analytics and lost their advantage established by a forward-looking, forward-thinking DeWitt in the early aughts. A turning point was efficiency/analytics expert Jeff Luhnow leaving the baseball department to become general manager of the Houston Astros in December of 2011. Luhnow took a contingent of brilliant analysts with him to the new job, and the departures reduced the Cardinals’ collective front-office brainpower.

Instead of leading the industry, the Cardinals were drifting the other way, falling behind smarter organizations that used advanced metrics to catch, or pass up, the Cardinals.

There’s also been instability in the manager’s office since Tony La Russa’s retirement after the 2011 World Series championship. Even the team’s power moves – acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in trades – failed to produce a single postseason victory in their four years as teammates.

“The Cardinal Way” model became outdated. A relic of the past. The script no longer fit the title. That time had passed, leaving us with fond memories and special keepsakes.

I’ve also been thinking a lot about something else lately.

Perhaps – at least up to a certain point – this baseball recession was inevitable. All major-league franchises screw up, make mistakes, make regrettable spending decisions and get blasted by fans and media.

All 30 MLB entities have gone through excruciating stretches of lousy, irrelevant or disappointing seasons. All 30 teams have fallen short of their objectives. No team, including the Cardinals, has escaped that reality.

Again, I’ve cited the blunders made by DeWitt and his people. I take none of it back. But did we really think the Cardinals would stay at such a high level of accomplishment for decades without experiencing anything worse than the occasional lull?

I also think about the extraordinary talent that entered the Cardinals’ clubhouse during the many seasons of franchise glory since DeWitt became owner before the 1996 season.

Heck, I can just use their first or last names – or even nicknames – and you’ll instantly know who I’m referring to.

In no particular order:

Pujols, Molina, Waino, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria, Lankford. A pitching Carpenter and a hitting Carpenter. TLR. Holliday, Craig, Matheny, Morris, Freese, McGwire, Beltran, Wacha, Kile, Soup, Woody, Izzy, Lynn, Lohse.

Berkman, Motte, Benes, Rosenthal, Eck, Dunc the pitching coach, and Dunc the young slugger. The Canadian Walker, Jocketty, Luhnow, Kline, “El Gallo” (Martinez), Hentgen, Vina, Tito, Eckstein, Wong, Womack.

Ankiel, Sanders, Siegrist, Maness, the 2019 Flaherty, Mujica, Franklin, Tatis Sr., Stottlemyre, Schumacher, Descalso, Drew, Jordan, Furcal, Taguchi, Spiezio, Ludwick and Gant.

The coaches and/or instructors. The roll call would include Schoendienst, Kissell, Oquendo, Ricketts, Duncan, Shildt, DeJohn and McGee. Shildt was also a good manager who posted a .559 winning percentage, the highest by a STL manager since La Russa stepped down after that unforgettable 2011.

I could go on … and I probably missed a few.

Not all of those dudes were great players or pitchers. But they were winning players, or entertaining players, or eccentric and colorful players. They had a presence. They were a source of entertainment. They were a part of an extensive run of winning and all of the good times that came with it. They created memories.

The last of the Cardinal greats left the building either in 2022 (Pujols and Molina) or 2023 (Wainwright.)

Even with some dissatisfying seasons baked in, the Cardinals compare quite favorably with the other MLB franchises during DeWitt’s 29 seasons as the owner.

Over the last 29 years, only the Yankees, Dodgers and Braves have won more regular-season games than the Cardinals – and only the Yankees and Astros have piled up more postseason victories than the Cards.

From 2000 through 2015, the Cardinals led the majors in postseason wins, and only the Yankees won more regular-season games.

Over the last 29 seasons, 21 of the 30 MLB franchise have made the playoffs at a rate of 31 percent or lower.

The Cardinals are one of five teams that have made the postseason in more than 50 percent of the seasons played since 1996.

Here’s the leaderboard, Top 10:

— Yankees, 82.7%
— Braves, 68.9%
— Cardinals, 58.6%
— Dodgers, 58.6%
— Astros, 51.7%
— Red Sox, 44.8%
— Guardians, 44.8%
— A’s, 37.9%
— Twins, 34.3%
— * Rays, 33%

(* The Rays’ first year as an AL expansion team was 1998, so they’ve played 27 seasons … not 29. The same applies to the Diamondbacks, the NL’s expansion team in 1998. I calculated the made-the-playoffs percentage for both teams over the last 27 seasons.)

Obviously, the trends have changed. The Cardinals have missed the playoffs in five of the last nine seasons. And as I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen the Cardinals dry up in the postseason, having prevailed in won just a single postseason series since defeating the Dodgers in the 2014 NLDS.

Based on the DeWitt-Era standards, this trend clearly represents a deterioration. And I think the Cardinals could have done a better of preventing the downswing by maintaining their archetype farm-development system and spending their major-league payroll dollars more wisely.

Now I’ll return to my other point that needs to be backed up. All baseball franchises have gone through hard times, quiet times, stupid times and barren Octobers.

So why do so many Cardinals fans seem to think the Cardinals are immune to this? No team is immune to these fluctuations. The closest are the Yankees and their impressively high rate of making the playoffs. But beyond that, the Yankees don’t have much to show for it. More on that as we go along.

I could go through the other 29 teams and offer details.

I think I will.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Braves: Four straight losing seasons, 2014 through 2017.

Phillies: 10 consecutive seasons of failing to make the playoffs (2012-2021.)

Mets: After losing to the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS, they missed making the playoffs 14 times in the next 18 seasons but did win the NL pennant in 2015.

Marlins: they won the World Series in 2003, and have only made the playoffs twice in the last 21 seasons.

Brewers: They’ve been in the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons. But before that, the Crew failed to enter the playoffs in nine of 10 seasons.

Nationals: They moved from Montreal and became Washington’s team in 2005. The Nats won the 2019 World Series but have qualified for the playoffs in only 5 of their 20 seasons as D.C.’s team.

Cubs: They famously won the World Series in 2016 …then, nothing. The Cubs haven’t won a postseason game since 2017. Going into 2025, they’ve missed the playoffs in four consecutive seasons.  In a wide-view picture, the Cubs have competed in just nine of the last 35 seasons.

Reds: They’ve made the playoffs one time in the last 11 seasons. And that was in the Covid-shortened 2020.

Pirates: The Jolly Roger hasn’t been spotted in the playoffs since 2015. Since losing in three consecutive NLCS showdowns from 1990 through 1992, the Bucs have shown up in the playoffs just three times in 32 years.

Dodgers: sure, they’ve become a fearsome machine that’s competed in the last 12 postseasons, winning two World Series. They also have a constant gush of lucrative revenue, massive marketing deals in Japan, and an enriching local TV contact. The Dodgers also draft and develop players better than just about every MLB team. But let us not forget about this: before this dominant stretch that they’re on now, the Dodgers appeared in only six postseasons over 24 seasons.

Padres: they’ve been in the playoffs three times in the last five years. Before that the Padres failed to make the postseason over 13 consecutive seasons.

Diamondbacks: since winning the World Series in 2001, they’ve made the playoffs five times in 21 years.

Giants: They won three World Series from 2010 through 2014. After that: two postseasons in the last 10 seasons.

Rockies: Won the NL pennant in 2007. Since then: three trips to the postseason in the last 17 years.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Yankees: With the benefit of immense spending power, they’ve been in the playoffs in all but four seasons during a stretch that began in 2009. But the Yanks haven’t won a World Series since that ’09 campaign. From 2010 through 2024, this powerhouse franchise with all of the advantages invested $3.2 billion in 26-man payroll and do not have a World Series trophy to show for it.

Orioles: Sure, they look fantastic after coming out of a brutal rebuilding phase … but even then the O’s have made the playoffs five times in the last 27 seasons.

Red Sox: They’ve missed the postseason for three straight seasons and in five of the last six seasons. Because their fans are so openly hostile, the Red Sox scaled down their annual winter Fenway Fest to one day this year.

Rays: They’ve barged into the playoffs five times in the last six years, but before that had no postseason appearances for five consecutive years.

Blue Jays: Back-to-back World Series triumphs in 1992-1993, followed by five postseason excursions over the next 31 years.

Guardians: The franchise hasn’t won a World Series since 1948. From 2002 through 2015 the Indians/Guardians made it to the tournament three times in 14 years.

Tigers: Made the playoffs one time over the last 10 seasons.

Royals: The World Series parade was a thrill in 2015, but KC has made the playoffs three times over the last 39 seasons.

Twins: Have qualified for the playoffs seven times in the past 20 seasons and haven’t won a postseason series since 2002.

White Sox: After winning the World Series in 2005, they’ve made it to the postseason only three times in 19 years.

Astros: They’ve been superb since 2015, capturing two World Series and four AL pennants. But let’s go back awhile. After winning the NL pennant in 2005, the Astros went through nine consecutive seasons without reaching the playoffs.

Mariners: Only one postseason in the last 23 seasons. Only five postseasons in all since being born into major-league baseball in 1977.

Rangers: They won the 2023 World Series. But before that Texas missed the playoffs in six straight seasons. And they’ve made the postseason three times in the last 12 years.

The A’s: Failed to make the postseason 14 times in their final 21 seasons in Oakland. They haven’t been to the playoffs in a full season since 2019.

Angels: One postseason in the last 15 seasons despite throwing money around like crazy.

If we include the Whitey Herzog seasons in St. Louis, the Cardinals have competed in 20 postseasons since the start of the 1982 season. Among National League franchises, only the Braves (25), Dodgers (21) and their fans have enjoyed more postseason rides than the Cardinals and their fans over the past 43 years.

And here I was, thinking that the Cardinals were the only major-league team that has wobbled through phases of failure. Or maybe I just see that – over and over and over again – on social media.

Actually, I didn’t think the Cardinals were the only MLB team to stumble through spells of failure or mediocrity.

But to get a better idea of this, I wanted to look at every other MLB team’s highs and lows through the decades to learn more.

And it gave me a healthier perspective. Teams can go from extraordinary to ordinary. They must find a way to rise up again. And this is where the Cardinals are right now.  That’s sports.  That has always been sports. That will always be sports.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie