Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At 10 Reasons Why The Cardinals Turned Their Season Around.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are in a good place right now. They’ll have to stay there instead of going backward, but that isn’t the focus of this column. Today I’m putting my attention on how the Cardinals rallied to become relevant and reasonably successful following a potentially ruinous start to the 2024 season.

As I’ve been writing for quite some time now, St. Louis has the best record (24-13) in the National League, and are No. 3 overall, since May 12. Here’s a little-known fact: the Cardinals actually have the best record in the NL Central (29-23, .558) since April 24.

This team was ineffective and extremely vulnerable in losing 24 of the first 39 games. But the Cardinals responded well to the adverse conditions. They have survived and stabilized. It wasn’t easy, but the Cardinals have pulled themselves up and climbed out of trouble. Problems and concerns remain, but the Redbirds have given themselves a chance to get where they want to go: a place in the postseason tournament.

As the Atlanta Braves come in for a three-game series at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals have won eight of their last 11 games to move into second place in the NL Central. The Redbirds trail first-place Milwaukee by 5.0 games, the closest they’ve been since a deficit of 4 and ½ games on May 29. The Cards currently sit at No. 2 in the NL’s wild-card standings, but that can change from day to day. The Braves are the No. 1 wild-card team and should stay there, leaving nine NL teams to fight for the other two spots.

How have the Cardinals turned their season around?

In no special order, here are the Top 10 reasons behind STL’s 24-13 record and .649 winning percentage since May 11. I included a “bonus” reason at the end of the column. Thanks …

1) Tighter run prevention. The Cardinals allowed 4.7 runs per game while going 15-24 through May 11. They’ve yielded 4.1 runs per game since May 12. The defense was raggedy there for a while, making too many errors. But overall the team’s defense is a plus. And that’s a big part of preventing runs.

2) The overall pitching has improved. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the majors and third in the NL with a 3.57 team ERA since May 12. Before that, through May 11, the Cardinals ranked 23rd overall and 12th in the NL with a 4.33 ERA. But pitching upturn is a major reason for the season-altering shift over the last 37 games.

3) Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas and Kyle Gibson. During STL’s 24-13 surge, the top three starters have collectively pitched to a 3.16 ERA, and the Cardinals are 16-6 in their 22 starts. Lance Lynn and Andre Pallante have struggled to a collective 4.55 ERA since May 12 but at least the Cardinals have a winning record (7-5) in their 12 starts over that time.

4) The bullpen doesn’t break. We’ve seen some St. Louis relievers wobble and buckle over the past two or three weeks, but this group is awfully stubborn at preserving leads. During the 24-13 streak the Cardinals are 15-2 when leading through six innings, 19-1 when leading through seven innings, and 22-0 when leading after eight innings. Ryan Helsley and his mates have fastened an MLB-leading 29 saves this season. Here’s a revealing number: the Cardinals, who play many close games, have been credited with a save in 74.3 percent of their wins this season. That’s (by far) the highest percentage of any team in the majors. The Cardinals’ record would be a lot worse if their bullpen collapsed late in games. But that hasn’t happened much. I do think there could be some turbulence ahead; Andrew Kittredge has diminished swing-and-miss stuff and that’s a concern.

5) The offense has come alive. It’s been kind of sneaky, but it’s true. I don’t want to overstate this, because the Cardinals aren’t as consistent as we’d like them to be offensively. But it would also be foolish and petty to ignore the obvious improvement that’s been so fundamental to their 24-13 showing over the last 37 games.

Here’s a before and after break down.

Before May 12 … then after May 12.

Runs per game: 3.4 before … 4.7 after.
OPS: 28th in MLB before … 11th in MLB after.
Slugging: 29th before … 9th after.
Onbase pct: 27th before … 12th after.
Batting avg: 28th before … 4th after.
wRC+: 25th before … 9th after.
Home runs: 30th before … tied for 5th after.
RISP batting average: 30th before … 20th after.

In their first 39 games (15-24) the Cardinals batted .218 with a .295 onbase percentage and .338 slug for a .633 OPS. Their wRC+ was 17 percent below league average offensively, and they averaged 0.76 home runs per game.

In their last 37 games (24-13) the Cardinals have batted .261 with a .318 onbase percentage and .423 slug for a .741 OPS. Their wRC+ is 12 percent above league average offensively since May 12, and they’ve averaged 1.32 home runs per game over the last 37.

I knew they were doing better offensively since May 12 but I underestimated the impact.

6) The Cards have put up more high-scoring games and reduced the number of low-scoring games. And this is really, really important to their success. Yes, this is on the offense, but I thought this warranted a separate item.

Before May 12, the Cardinals scored three runs or fewer in 64 percent of their games. Since May 12, they’ve been held to three runs or less in 32 percent of their games, so they’ve cut that rate in half. That’s good! And it matters, simply because they aren’t taking themselves out of games by frequently failing to score a decent amount of runs in games.  The Cardinals are 9-28 this season when limited to three runs or fewer, but that hasn’t happened nearly as often since May 12.

OK, what about scoring four or more runs in a game? Before May 12, the Cardinals did it in only 36 percent of their games and had a 9-5 record. But since May 12 the Cardinals have scored 4+ runs in 67.5 percent of their games and are 21-4 when getting it done.

7) The Cardinals are winning close games. This positive trend is very much linked to the bullpen numbers I cited earlier. During their 24-13 zoom, the Cardinals are 10-4 in one-run games and 5-2 when the outcome was determined by two runs. That’s a 15-6 mark since May 12 in games decided by two runs or fewer.

8) Home is where the heart is: As they say, right? After an appalling 6-11 record in their first 17 games at Busch Stadium this season, the Cardinals have dug in and defended their home turf with renewed vigor. After sweeping the Giants over the weekend, the Cardinals are 14-4 in their last 18 home games. Thursday’s win over the Giants at Rickwood Field was technically considered a home game for the Cardinals, but even if we exclude it, the Cards are 13-4 at Busch Stadium since May 17. After losing four of their first six series at home this season, the Redbirds are 5-0-1 in their last six series at Busch. That’s a dramatic difference. The Cardinals, at least for now, have reclaimed their home field advantage. Atlanta may have something to say about that.

9) Individual hitters have stepped up in a prominent way since May 12. I’m referring to Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson. But this also applies to Paul Goldschmidt and – at least in his home-run count – Nolan Gorman.

* During the team’s 24-13 stretch, Brendan Donovan has batted .321 with a .378 onbase percentage and .481 slugging percentage for an .859 OPS. He’s been striking for more power and is 53 percent above league average offensively over this time per wRC+. Donovan has nine doubles, four homers and 19 RBI since May 12.

* Since May 12, Winn is hitting .318 with a .348 OBP and .500 slug for an .848 OPS. Per wRC+, he’s 39 percent above league average offensively over the last 37 games with four homers and 10 doubles.

* Since May 12, Alec Burleson has broken out for a .303 average, .336 OBP and a .524 slug that’s the highest among Cardinal regulars over this time. Burleson’s haul includes nine home runs, five doubles, 19 RBIs and five stolen bases.

* It isn’t noisy, but Goldschmidt has a .268 average, .321 OBP and .464 slug since May 12. In a season of reduced offense for MLB hitters, there’s nothing wrong with Goldy’s .785 OPS during his team’s turnaround. Over the last 37 games Goldschmidt has six doubles, eight homers and 20 RBIs. He’s striking out too often, but still has provided more offense. Goldy has a .530 OPS before May 12, so he’s increased that by 255 points during STL’s 24-13 stretch.

* Gorman is struggling with whiff swings and strikeouts, but he’s bashed 11 of his team-leading 16 home runs since May 12.

10) The Cardinals are getting solid impact from their bench. Let’s start with catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages. They’ve done an admirable job of filling in for the injured Willson Contreras. The Cardinals went 24-16 with Contreras on the IL. Herrera has batted .317 and drawn plenty of walks for a .386 onbase percentage during WC’s absence. Pages has been exceptional behind the plate; he’s an excellent pitch caller and pitch framer who has a 3.60 catcher ERA. He also rocked two huge home runs to beat the Cubs twice in a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Father’s Day weekend.

– Brandon Crawford has sanded off the rust, batting .304 since May 12. In his last six games Crawford is 6 for 15 (.400) with four walks and four extra-base hits to give him a .550 OBP and .800 slug. You can’t ask for more than that.

– In his last 10 games, Matt Carpenter is 9 for 30 (.300) with a double, homer, two RBIs and a .797 OPS. He’s definitely helping.

– Michael Siani really isn’t a bench guy, per se. Not anymore. But manager Oli Marmol had to turn to Siani in center field because of injuries, and that was a positive decision for the Cardinals. Siani ranks second among all MLB outfielders with nine Outs Above Average and has been credited with four defensive runs saved. The Cardinals are 28-23 when Siani starts, and that includes his 23-12 record as a starter since May 12.

Bonus reason: Oli Marmol. The manager deserves credit for holding this team together. He won’t get any credit; that’s just the way it is ‘round here. Many (not all) in the BFIB colony have made up their minds, and that’s all there is to it. The Cardinals reached their low point (15-24) on May 11, but Marmol didn’t freak out, or put on a cheap show by dogging players in public to curry favor with fans. He stayed steady. He expressed confidence in his players while also speaking in a straightforward manner about the bottom-line necessity of doing better. Marmol has done the best he could with a roster that’s been frayed by injuries and an embarrassing front-office failure to come up with a fifth starting pitcher. The effectiveness of Marmol’s bullpen management is defined by the team’s outstanding record when leading in the late innings. He’s cultivated additional sources of quality of relief to expand the bullpen depth. With Marmol engineering the usage patterns, the St. Louis bullpen is the fifth best in the majors based on Win Probability Added.

The Cardinals have a plus-21 run differential in their 37 games since May 12. Before that they were minus 52 in run differential in their first 39 games. They’ve come a long way. They also have a long way to go. Their 39-37 record isn’t exceptional, but context is important here.

All things considered that 39-37 looks pretty dang good considering (a) the team’s 15-24 start to the season, and (b) their 35-41 expected record based on run differential and other underlying factors. The Cardinals are winning more games than they should be. That’s among the reasons why they went from 13th in the National League in winning percentage on May 11 … to having the NL’s fifth-best winning percentage since May 12. That seems like a big step to me. But only the first of many steps.

I can’t predict the future. To do that, I’d have to know, with certainty, that the St. Louis front office will be proactive and get this team the necessary help to push through the summer.

Thanks for reading …

– Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an analytical and opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 on Friday. Stream live or access the podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan app.

Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.