Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At Potential Stat-Based Positives For The Cards’ Offense In 2025.

The Cardinals are entering the gates of Jupiter, straight into spring training, for seven weeks of drills, hard work, sunshine, blue skies, exhibition games. The return of baseball is still a big deal in me ol’ mind and heart.

In the spirit of the obligatory optimistic “feels” at this time of year, I’m taking a look at 10 St. Louis hitters and explaining why it isn’t cuckoo to think that they can do better than expected in 2025. It’s based on facts, with just a dash of wishful thinking added to my pragmatism.

NOLAN ARENADO: Who knows when and if he’ll be traded. But I’ll go back to a couple of things I’ve pointed out already. Arenado has worked on improving his bat speed, and he had his quickest swings in July–August of last season. Over the two months Arenado batted .286 with a .442 slugging percentage. Compared to his showing in the first half, Arenado improved his slugging percentage by 34 points – and his OPS by 39 points – after the All-Star break. And here’s an interesting note, at least to me: despite Busch Stadium being a park that suppresses power, Arenado actually slugged .433 at home last season.

To extend the point, Arenado batted .307 with a .797 OPS at Busch last year. And if we use wRC+ – runs created adjusted for park and league effects – Arenado performed 26 percent above league average at Busch Stadium and was 21 percent below average away from home. Go figure. But if he can put up those kinds of numbers at Busch Stadium, perhaps the Red Sox should take a look at that.

I’m not done. Here are Arenado’s home/road splits over the last two seasons combined:

— At Busch: .291 average, .446 slug, 19 percent above league average offensively per wRC+

— On Road: .247 average, .407 slug, 11 percent below league average offensively.

Weird. Go figure. Maybe ‘Nado really does love playing ball in The Lou.

WILLSON CONTRERAS: This one’s easy. All we have to do is look at his offensive performance in 853 plate appearances as a Cardinal. In his two seasons with STL, Contreras has performed 29 percent above league average offensively, posted a very good 11.3 percent walk rate, reached base 37 percent of the time, slugged .468, and produced an extra-base hit every 10.8 at-bats. Over the past two seasons Contreras ranks 11th among right-handed hitters with a wRC+ that’s 33 percent above league average. (Minimum 850 plate appearances.)

NOLAN GORMAN: Strikeouts? Sure. I think I’ve heard something about that. (Writer pauses. Rolls eyes.) But the tradeoff is a load of power. In 670 plate appearances from the start of the 2023 season through June 4 of ‘24, Gorman ranked 13th among big-league left-handed hitters with a .487 slugging percentage, which was higher than that of Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Christian Yelich and Riley Greene (among others,) Gorman’s 41 home runs over that time were 11th among LH batters, and he had more homers than Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman.

In his first 259 games in the majors, Gorman walloped 55 home runs for a total that put him 10th among all left-handed MLB hitters. In his 259-game intro to the big leagues, Gorman hit a HR every 20.8 at-bats, slugged .466 and generated a wRC+ that was 17 percent above league average offensively. Even with the whiffs, that’s impressive work. And that 259-game sample size is a heck of a lot more meaningful than his 54-game wipeout that preceded his demotion to Triple A Memphis last summer.

Among other things, Gorman in 2024 will have a new batting coach (Brant Brown) who is more in tune with younger hitters and won’t give up on him. The same applies to Jordan Walker. Speaking of Walker. Brant is no savior, but he’s a coach who won’t become exasperated by the travails of young hitters.

JORDAN WALKER: We know he can hit well because we saw him do it as a 21-year old rookie in 2023. The wild-card era began in 1995. And here’s where Jordan ranked in a few key offensive categories in a season among rookies age 21 or younger over the past 30 years. (Minimum 465 plate appearances):

• .276 batting average, 15th
• .342 onbase percentage, 13th
• .445 slugging percentage, 15th
• .787 OPS, 15th
• 113 OPS+: 15th

Last season was a mess for Walker but the Cardinals have mismanaged his career since rushing him to the majors before the 2023 season without the benefit of a single game at the Triple A level. And the Cardinals panicked again early in 2024 after Walker got off to a terrible start. They didn’t stick with him. The hitting coaches were clueless on how to get him going. So the Cardinals took the easy way out and shoved him back to the minors. I look forward to watching a rejuvenated Walker’s attempt to overcome the damage caused by the Cardinals.

ALEC BURLESON: He can hit. His problem is swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone and connecting with them. If Burleson can be more selective, his offense will improve. But he can hit. Before the 2024 All-Star break Burleson batted .288 with a .494 slug and .814 OPS. His nice haul included 17 home runs and 53 RBIs. Even though he tired down the stretch, Burleson still ended up as the team’s leading RBI man, finished second in homers, and third in slugging. Yes, he can hit.

Earlier this month Baseball Prospectus named Burleson as one of eight MLB hitters “on the rise” for 2025. Wrote Daniel R. Epstein:

“Rather than focus on where the club went wrong (in 2024), let’s look at one of the ones they got right. Burleson was the team’s best hitter last season until a disastrous September in which he slugged .226.”

LARS NOOTBAAR: It’s just a matter of loading this energetic horse into the starting gate enough times to improve his chances of winning races as part of a winning performance. Over the last three seasons, among MLB outfielders that have at least 1,000 plate appearances over that time, Nootbaar ranks 24th with a wRCT+ that’s 18 percent above the league average. He has the No. 5 walk rate (14%), the No. 15 onbase percentage (.351), and is 26th in OPS (.777.) His slugging percentage is a respectable .426. MLB.com recently put Nootbaar in right field on their “All-Underrated” team for 2025.

“Injuries have prevented a true breakout for the 27-year-old Nootbaar,” Anthony Castrovince wrote. “In the last two seasons, he’s hurt himself sliding into bases, running into walls and even just swinging the bat. That’s no fun. But when able to take the field, Nootbaar has shown excellent plate discipline, leading to a 116 OPS+ over the last three seasons — production basically on par with our left fielder, Taylor Ward. When you look at Nootbaar’s Baseball Savant page, you might note that he’s in the 82nd percentile or better in whiff percentage, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, walk rate and chase percentage. All this points to a breakout in the making for Nootbaar… if he can stop running into walls.”

BRENDAN DONOVAN: We’ve observed Donovan’s range of offensive capabilities during his three seasons as a Cardinals.

– Want a high onbase percentage? Well, he cultivated a .394 OBP as a rookie in 2022.

– Want a dude who wears out pitchers by extending his at-bats? Well, Donovan ranked among the top 10 hitters in the bigs in 2022 by averaging 4.17 pitches seen per plate appearances. And his selectivity led to a 13 percent walk rate.

– Want a blast of power? Well, Donovan is no Sultan of Swat, but he slugged .422 in 2024 and launched 14 home runs.

– Want a guy who hits to all fields? In his career Donovan has 119 hits when he pulls the ball, 171 hits when he goes up the middle, and 76 hits to the opposite field.

– Want a “clutch” hitter? Donny is your guy. With runners in scoring position for his career, Donovan has batted .305 with an .885 OPS. With runners in scoring position and two outs, Donovan has a .282 average and .814 OPS. And in the most important at-bats – high leverage situations – Donovan has a .304 average .907 OPS.

If Donovan can effectively synthesize his OBP and slugging skills in 2025, he’ll have a career-best season.

MASYN WINN: For the second-year shortstop, the goal (offensively) in 2025 is to take everything he did well in 2024 and improve on areas that need some work. Mostly, doing better against offspeed pitches … and perhaps being more patient at the plate … and becoming more adept at stealing bases. But I don’t think you need me to tell you why he impressed us all as a rookie last year, and this particular discussion is limited to his offense.

Counting only the games he started at shortstop last season, Winn batted .271 with a .316 OBP and .421 slug for a fine .737 OPS. Oh, and 15 home runs. Winn was a good two-strike hitter. He was a terrific (.303) high-leverage hitter. He batted .472 with a 1.331 OPS when pulling the ball and had a .383 average and .505 slug when he hit to the opposite field. When the Cardinals won a game, Winn was often in the middle of the action and making it happen. In the team’s victories Winn hit .298 with a .497 slug.

Winn has special poise and sharp situational awareness. And he’ll turn 23 years old on March 16.

IVAN HERRERA: So much to like. He just needs the manager who will give him 500+ plate appearances. In 259 PA last season Herrera hit .301, walked a lot, shaped a swell .372 OBP, and slugged .428. He was one of the very best hitters in the majors among players age 24 or younger. And for a strong dude who swings hard and hits the ball hard, Herrera’s 20 percent strikeout rate (in 2024) was quite admirable.

PEDRO PAGES: He had some good stretches as a rookie hitter in 2024. Example: Pages slugged .416 after the All-Star break, a mark that was inflated by a .456 slug over the final month. Pages hit the ball hard last season. He made solid sweet-spot contact. But he was overpowered by fastballs in his first major-league test, and that rookie .281 OBP won’t fly. But the point is, we’ve seen some flashes of his offensive potential. And Pages is a defense-first catcher. Remember Yadier Molina’s early major-league seasons? In his first 405 games, Molina had an OPS+ that was 30 percent below league average. But over time he got much better offensively.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie