Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At The Cardinals In April. The Good, The Bad, The Concerns.

The Cardinals went 11-9 in April, ending the month with a three-game deficit in the NL Central. Here we are again, watching the Cardinals chase the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the division standings.

And while a winning record is nothing to toss into the dumpster, the Cardinals squandered their chance for a much better month by crashing offensively, flattening out, and losing five of their final seven April games.

The Cardinals pulled a reversal on what fans and media expected. Going into the season much of the fretting was understandably focused on the loss of starter Jack Flaherty (shoulder) and the shortage of depth and established quality on the pitching staff. The offense? Well, the front office left some holes, but the lineup figured to sustain the improvement that stoked a strong second half in 2021.

Um, no.

The pitching was an April plus – much more than anticipated.

And the St. Louis offense stagnated, suffered a loss of electricity, and hit only two home runs in their final 472 plate appearances of the month.

Let’s review the month of April …

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS: 

1. Mediocre and inconsistent offense. During April the Cardinals ranked 15th in MLB in runs per game (4.10), 13th in batting average (.236), 14th in onbase percentage (.311), 20th in slugging (.347) and 19th in OPS (.658.) Using OPS+ the Cards were only one percent below league average – which means they’ve largely wasted their hot start.

As for the inconsistency:

– In the first 10 games of April the Cardinals averaged 5.0 runs per game, slugged .421, cranked 13 homers, and posted a .744 OPS.

– In their second 10 games of April the Cardinals averaged 3.2 runs, slugged a sickly .274, sank in OPS (.573) and remarkably hit only one home run in 336 at-bats.

– Six hitters that are either regulars or semi-regulars range between 47 percent and 71% below league average offensively in OPS+. The six are Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson and Edmundo Sosa.

– Big problem: The Cardinals in April were tied for last in the majors in hard-hit percentage (33.9), were 29th in barrel percentage, and 25th in average exit velocity. The quality of the contact is just awful, and that’s a major fail, that will recharge criticism of the hitting approach and the work of hitting coach Jeff Albert.

– Same problem? Last season the Cardinals were tremendous against left-handed pitching, finishing 2nd in the majors in OPS vs. lefties. But the Redbirds struggled against right-handed pitching, ranking tied for 20th in OPS. The first month of 2022 had a similar split, with Cardinal hitters ranking 3rd in MLB in OPS against lefties and 22nd in OPS against righties.

– The Cardinals scored two runs or fewer in nine of their 20 April games, tied for eighth-most in the majors. They had a 2-7 record in the nine games.

– Embarrassing: In April the Cardinals faced seven starting pitchers who were ranked among the top 20 in ERA among qualifying MLB starters for the month. In the matchups against Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Madison Bumgarner, and Merrill Kelly the Cardinals scored ONE run in 45 innings (0.20 ERA.) C’mon. That’s ridiculous.

2. The startling lack of production by the St. Louis outfield. After triggering a big boom in the team’s offense during the final three months of 2021, the core of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson turned in the second-worst slugging percentage (.271) and OPS (.552) by a MLB outfield in April. Bader didn’t do poorly; despite a lack of power his OPS+ (99) was just a sliver below league average. But O’Neill and Carlson each had a brutal April. Among the 60 big-league outfielders that had at least 60 plate appearances in the first month, O’Neill and Carlson ranked 55th and 57th respectively in OPS. Using OPS+, O’Neill was 47 % below league average offensively. Carlson was 52% percent below average. The STL outfield hit one homer in 231 at-bats during April, and that came on Opening Day.

3. The continuing freefall of Paul DeJong: After getting off to a nice start in the first four games, DeJong closed April by going 4 for 38 (.105) with 15 strikeouts in his final 42 plate appearances. (With a drop in his walk rate as well.) DeJong entered May with a .137 average, .241 onbase percentage and .235 slugging percentage for a .477 OPS that ranked 30th among 32 MLB shortstops that had a minimum of 50 plate appearances. Using OPS+, DeJong was 55 percent below league average offensive for the month of April. DeJong still provides strong defense; he’s tied for second among MLB shortstops with three defensive runs saved. But since slugging .444 and homering 30 times in 2019, Paulie has batted .206 and slugged .365 in 634 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.

4. The glaring weakness of STL designated hitters vs. right-handed pitching: 68 plate appearances, .153 average (27th in MLB), .412 OPS (28th), and .169 slugging percentage (29th.) But as the front office and manager Oli Marmol keep telling us, there’s no room on the big club for power prospect Nolan Gorman, a LH bat parked at Triple A Memphis who entered Sunday with a .383 average, .420 onbase percentage, .936 slug and 1.356 OPS against right-handed pitching. This organization certainly has some bizarre quirks.

5. Yadier Molina’s slow start: the future Hall of Famer checked into camp late for personal reasons, was behind in his conditioning, had one extra-base hit in 48 plate appearances and checked out of April with a 32 OPS+ … which means he was 68 percent below league average offensively.

TIP OF THE CAP

1. The overall quality of the pitching: The April Cardinals were sixth in the majors in run prevention, giving up 3.25 runs per game. Their team ERA, 3.22, was ninth-best in the majors. The starting pitching ERA (3.45) is a respectable 12th in the majors. (The rotation should improve; only two starters, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, have an above-average Game Score so far.) A positive indicator: the starter fielding independent ERA (3.26) ranks eighth overall. The bullpen became an established strength during the opening month and ranks sixth in the majors with a 2.92 ERA. The April star of the bullpen was RH reliever Ryan Helsley, who allowed one hit, no walks and no runs in six appearances covering 6.1 innings. Helsley struck out 12 of 20 batters faced for a K rate of 60 percent. And rookie RH reliever Andre Pallante had a 0.90 ERA in his six April appearances (10 innings.)

2. The return of the real Miles Mikolas: He was April’s rotation ace, crafting a 1.52 ERA in five starts. That overall ERA ranked ninth among qualifying MLB starters for the month. Mikolas has a 1.04 ERA in his last four starts, giving up only 15 hits and two walks in 26 innings. Mikolas looks like the 2018 version of himself, and it’s a delight to watch him do his thing.

3. Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman: They’ve been terrific in every way. And that’s reflected in where each player ranked in the majors in Wins Above Replacement in April: Arenado was 2nd with 1.8 WAR, and Edman was tied for 7th with 1.2 WAR. (FanGraphs version of WAR.)

The April Arenado was 3rd in MLB in batting average, 3rd in slugging, 3rd in OPS (1.125) and 3rd in park-and-league adjusted runs created. (‘Nado’s counting stats are mighty fine too.) Of course there’s his defense – Arenado was tied for first among MLB third basemen in Outs Above Average, was 2nd in Ultimate Zone rating, and was tied for 3rd in defensive runs saved.

The April Edman led all MLB fielders – all positions – with seven defensive runs saved. Offensively Tommy E. ranked 1st among MLB second basemen in onbase percentage, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in OPS (.881) and 3rd in batting average. He topped all second basemen with five stolen bases, and was 4th in runs (12) and RBI (11.)

Paul Goldschmidt warrants a positive mention because of his .367 average and .894 OPS over his final 12 games in April.

Catcher Andrew Knizner had a nice opening month, exceeding expectations with a .333 OBP, .444 slug, .778 OPS, three extra-base hits and six RBI in 30 plate appearances.

Albert Pujols: only 20 percent of the Cards’ total plate appearances in April were taken against left-handed pitchers, and that limited The Machine’s opportunities. Pujols had only 16 plate appearances against lefties but hammered them for a .467 average, two homers, a .933 slug, and 1.433 OPS.

4. Excellent baserunning: at the conclusion of April the Cardinals were ranked second overall and first in the NL in the FanGraphs baserunning metric. They’d swiped 22 bases in 23 attempts (96 percent!) and were No. 6 in the majors in percentage of extra bases taken on batted balls in play. This is the most entertaining part of the team.

5. Defense: The Cardinals are moving up on the charts, ending April tied at No. 6 in the majors in defensive runs saved, seventh in Outs Above Average, and eighth in Ultimate Zone Rating.

OLI MARMOL’S FIRST MONTH 

Overall, a good job by the rookie manager.

Plusses: team culture remains strong … his adept handling of the bullpen … nudging the team’s baserunning to an even higher level than what we witnessed in 2021 … maintaining the high defensive standards … the willingness to at least try some unconventional things, such as turning reliever Jordan Hicks into a starter … his talent in communicating in a straightforward and thoughtful manner instead of lapsing into constant phony-baloney nonsense … Marmol does an outstanding job of explaining his decisions and doesn’t hesitate to say he made a mistake, which only boosts his credibility … has only succumbed to hero-ball managing a few times, and hero-ball managing could be problem in a season that’s been marketed as the last ride (together) of Pujols, Molina and Adam Wainwright … we’ve seen Marmol bat Molina 8th at times, and Knizner has 41 percent of the plate appearances taken at the catching position so far.

Minuses: based on the preseason hype, I’m surprised and disappointed that we haven’t seen more unconventional managing from Marmol. Much of what he’s doing is standard stuff – like using a designated closer (Giovanny Gallegos) after saying he wouldn’t do that. However that could be changing because of Ryan Helsley … and I think we’ll see Marmol go against the norm more often as the season unwinds … while his platoon-matchup possibilities are still somewhat limited because of roster composition, the Cardinals have (through Sunday) had the platoon advantage in 46.1 percent of their plate appearances so far; that ranks 13th in the NL and 23rd in the majors. That 46% is, however, an increase from last year’s 44.7% platoon-advantage percentage under Mike Shildt in 2021 …

To be determined: about the hero-ball managing: as I mentioned, Marmol hasn’t succumbed as often as I feared he would, but there are potential issues. He insists that Pujols can be used against certain RH pitchers (finesse style), but we haven’t seen anything to back that up. Pujols is 2 for 19 vs. RHP with no extra-base hits … and we’ll have to see if Marmol will stay with Wainwright too long in days when Waino doesn’t have it. That happened in Cincinnati … I’m sure many want to assign blame to Marmol for the situation at shortstop – the Cards rank 28th in MLB at the position with a .477 OPS – but that problem has a substantially more to do with the players (DeJong, Edmundo Sosa) and the front-office roster decisions.

THE FRONT OFFICE 

– Two of the three relievers signed as free agents – Aaron Brooks and Drew Verhagen – did not impress in April. (Brooks was designated for assignment on Monday.)

— Left-handed starter Steven Matz was signed to a four-year contract worth $44 million. He’s had two good starts and two awful starts. Even though his ERA is ugly (6.11) there’s a long way to go, and racing to premature conclusions is silly.

– LH batter Corey Dickerson ended April with a .184 average and no extra-base hits in 42 plate appearances – though he did have seven RBI. Dickerson was signed to a one-year, $5 million deal to be part of a DH platoon and play corner outfield. Gorman certainly could be kept busy as a DH against RH pitching, and there’s nothing wrong with using Dickerson as a fourth outfielder and part-time DH.

– The shortstop position is well-above average defensively and brutal offensively, but the front office doesn’t show any enthusiasm for the idea of moving Tommy Edman to shortstop and installing Gorman at second base (against RH pitching.)

Thanks for reading …

– Bernie

Bernie invites you to listen to his opinionated and analytical sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the “Bernie Show” podcast at 590thefan.com  — the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

Follow Bernie on Twitter @miklasz

Please email your “Ask Bernie” questions to BernScoops@gmail.com 

All stats used here were sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.