Bernie’s Redbird Review: A New Direction For The Cardinals? Finally? If So, It’s About Time.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Thanks to excellent reporting from Katie Woo at The Athletic, we’re able to have a clearer vision of where the Cardinals are going when the offseason begins.

Two-part answer:

1. The Cards are moving forward in the long overdue and desperately required restoration of a farm-system, player-development operation that is antiquated, outdated, and moldy. This vital area – once a formidable strength – crumbled into disrepair because of complacency, arrogance and neglect. Everyone who had authority over this mess – including chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak – should be embarrassed.

2. By moving forward in a belated effort to modernize the teaching, instruction, staffing and use of advanced technology needed to give prospects more tools and help to prepare for the majors, the Cardinals will likely go the other way in the standings. Not forward … but backward.

As Woo wrote in Friday’s story: “Though they do not plan on tanking, people briefed on the Cardinals’ plans say the organization is preparing to shift its focus on upgrading the minor leagues and the player development department, even if it means going down a path seldom taken in baseball-mad St. Louis – accepting the possibility of not putting the major-league team in position to contend.”

To me, this is a positive. The Cardinals weren’t a contender in 2023. They were a fake contender in 2024. They’ve descended into mediocrity. It’s become more difficult for the Redbirds to make the playoffs – even though it’s easier than ever to make the postseason because of the third wild card in each league. Excluding the shortened Covid season of 2020, the Cardinals have failed to qualify for the postseason tournament in five of the last eight full seasons. This thing has been slipping … sliding … sinking.

The top priority should be restoring a crucial area that gave the Cardinals such a substantial advantage. That, of course, is drafting players, developing players and producing an abundant supply of homegrown Cardinals to form a foundation of enduring success.

From 2000 through 2015, St. Louis had the best regular-season winning percentage in the NL and were second overall to the Yankees. DeWitt’s franchise competed in 12 postseasons over 16 years and reached the NL championship series nine times. The Cardinals won four NL pennants and two World Series.

During the remarkable 16-season run, the Cardinals appeared in the most postseason games (125) and won more postseason games (65) than any major-league team. To his full credit, DeWitt was the architect, hiring the astute Jeff Luhnow put analytics to work to boost the drafting and development.

The steady flow of young (and less expensive) talent created a more efficient payroll, and that gave management more financial flexibility to add established players and pitchers from the outside.

It was a beautiful model that put DeWitt at the forefront of a movement. In drafting-and-developing and establishing enhanced payroll efficiency, the Cardinals set the industry standard.

DeWitt’s recruitment of Luhnow was a franchise-changing hire. The new way worked better than the old way. And there was no reason to let it deteriorate. But it deteriorated because DeWitt kept the same front-office people in place, and the operation turned stagnant. Forget about fresh vision, or fresh ideas … this outfit was stuck in the past. Living in the past with no grasp of the future.

And now the Cardinals must try and catch up after spending too many years in a time capsule, luxuriating in endless layers of nostalgia as other teams passed them by.

It’s stunning to see DeWitt – who was way ahead of the curve – let his creation crack and crater. Player development is in DeWitt’s DNA, and that makes it even more inexcusable to see this downfall. It’s just so strange to see DeWitt take a strength – one that he built – and let it become so feeble.

The repercussions are two-fold. The slow decline of the farm-system and player-development operation is bad for the business of winning, and bad for the business of selling tickets, suites, and sponsorships. And nothing about this is overblown.

– The minor League system is in terrible shape. Short on funding, short on coaches, short on instructors, short on technology. Using a metaphor, DeWitt and those who run the Cardinals have taken an esteemed, historically prominent home and allowed it to decay and crumble.

– This is an abandonment of the foundation that made the Cardinals so successful. And it makes no sense. And what an insult this is to the memory of the late, great George Kissell – a legendary teacher and instructor who schooled generations of young Cardinals on how to play the game.

– Katie Woo pointed out that other major-league organizations have a large faculty of coaches and instructors that are skilled in prepping young players for the big leagues. One example: the Milwaukee Brewers, who control the NL Central, have 17 minor-league instructors. The Cardinals have only FIVE.

– This is unacceptable. And it’s a major reason why the Cardinals are still chasing the Brewers, a franchise with a lower revenue base and a payroll that’s historically much smaller than the player payroll in St. Louis – and by a wide margin.

– According to Woo, the Cardinals do not have an outfield, infield or catching coordinator. They do not have any full-time roving instructors or any full-time coordinators in Latin America. The consequences are incredibly damaging. Too many of their young players are inadequately prepared for a successful graduation to the majors.

– And because the Cardinals inexplicably defaulted on their traditional advantage – one that could dominate small-market Brewers, and large-market Cubs – they must rely on questionable or flat-out terrible free-agent signings to patch giant holes on the major-league roster.

– When the farm system can’t produce a flow of elite young talents, Mozeliak has to try to find short-term solutions by going to the market in search of temporary solutions that won’t last. It’s been a costly misadventure. The Cardinals wouldn’t spend the money to maintain what they had in their impressive model, and now they must pay a very steep and painful price for their inexcusable neglect.

– Another point must be made here: This isn’t just about the minors and the player-development program. The Cardinals have also been too cheap to keep up with their rivals at the major-league level. They don’t have as many coaches and behind-the-scenes analysts or enough advanced technology available in St. Louis. So in terms of infrastructure – something I’ve touched on many times – this this once-proud organization has lost substantial ground in the minors AND the majors.

– Jordan Walker is an appropriate example. In the minors they moved the hitting prodigy from third base to the outfield. He’d never played the outfield. He wasn’t ready. And the Cardinals didn’t actually move him to the outfield (in games) until the final six weeks of the 2022 season at Double A Springfield. Next stop: Major leagues, ready or not!!!

– There wasn’t a minor-league outfield instructor to help Walker, and his defense was predictably awful. In subsequent minor-league demotions, his defense only worsened because no outfield-specific coach was there to school him up. Seriously: how dumb is this? Woo put it succinctly: “Walker has become the latest young player set up to fail by the St. Louis Cardinals.” Of course, there have been others. As we all know.

– Woo reached out to Cardinals staffers who are well aware of the magnitude of the problem. She granted them anonymity so they could speak freely. Here are a few sample quotes

* Staffer: “We’re in trouble. This is not easily fixable within the next year, or year after. This is going to take some time. I don’t know how this was effed up so bad over the last few years.”

* Staffer: “It’s broken. Our system is broken in a way. How it got there, I don’t know.”

Well, I think we know how it got there … DeWitt and Mozeliak failed in their  responsibility as caretakers of an esteemed franchise. They didn’t protect the brand. They let the brand fray into failure.

According to Woo’s reporting, “Mozeliak has been operating with a set amount of money to split between the Cardinals’ entire baseball operations department, and the front office has repeatedly chosen to invest in the big-league team. Those decisions resulted in repeated cuts to player development, both stateside and in Latin America.”

DeWitt never should have put Mozeliak in that position. And DeWitt should never want Mozeliak making major-league payroll decisions. (I think those days are over. Maybe?) Too much money has been thrown away. DeWitt should have invested sufficient resources in both areas – farm system and major-league roster.

So what’s next? The Cardinals will try to adapt; at least they know this is a mandatory endeavor. This means taking a step back – or a step down – in their competitive goals at the major-league level.

Ownership-management must pour extensive resources into their neglected minor-league operation. And this should be the priority. Absolutely. As we noted earlier, the Cardinals aren’t succeeding at the major-league level anymore. What’s the point of repeating this maddening cycle over and over again?

What’s the point of putting a mediocre team on the major-league field because you can’t count on the player-development pipeline that needs massive repairs? They have to fix this. They waited too long to fix it, so the cost of the repairs are even more formidable.

This also means being straight and honest with the fans. The objectives over the next two or three seasons will be different. This is about putting new leadership in place, and giving the new people ample time to get this entire enterprise back on track.

I’ll take a couple of losing seasons if it means the Cardinals will re-emerge from the project as a much stronger baseball enterprise. I would advise lowering your expectations. The Cardinals are rebuilding. The title doesn’t matter; the Cardinals must start anew by constructing a sturdier infrastructure. And they can build out on that — step by step, move by move.

This coming offseason isn’t about, say, pursuing slugger Pete Alonso as a free agent. This is more about doing what’s necessary to develop your own Pete Alonso.

Besides, premium free agents don’t want to be here – not when they have better options, and can join a winning team that has a chance to win a championship.

It’s a waste of time to poke around for more 81 or 83 win seasons and praying for others to fail so you can somehow grab a No. 3 wild-card spot and get humiliated in the postseason again. Who the heck wants that? Not me. Time to get out of the muck and pick a DIRECTION. And that finally seems to be happening.

Woo reported some news on Chaim Bloom: he’s no longer a consultant. He has joined the front office full-time, and will begin implementing the changes to the farm system – the changes he recommended to DeWitt and Mozeliak after auditing the ramshackle minor-league system and the many problems that must be addressed. According to The Athletic, Bloom’s first task is hiring a new director of player development.

That part is good news because this is Bloom’s area of expertise. Tampa Bay has been the model for player development for a long time, and Bloom played a major role in keeping that talent pipeline prospering. In Boston he rebuilt a decrepit player-development setup and the Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the majors.

Bloom is also much smarter than anyone in the Cardinals organization in his ability to assess player value. He is a master at analytics. He will find good-value players at lower cost instead of overpaying mediocre players to make an existing problem worse.

Next week, we’ll find out if the Cardinals are going to keep Mozeliak in the top baseball job, or have him move into the shadows and let Bloom take over. The longer Mozeliak stays out front, the Cardinals’ popularity and credibility will continue to wane.

It looks like manager Oli Marmol will be back in 2025, which is OK as the unofficial rebuild begins. A year from now, Chaim Bloom may have better ideas (and the authority) to bring in his own manager.

Finally, Woo reported that “the majority of his staff” will return with Marmol. This apparently includes the hitting coaches. So I guess the Cardinals enjoy alienating their fans?

The Cardinals — in too many instances — have no idea what they’re doing. Which is why Bloom was recruited to clear the cobwebs from a musty baseball-ops department. I give DeWitt credit for that. It took too long, but at least DeWitt is rallying.

So let Bloom do his job … the top job.

As in … right now.

I like this idea of a rebuild (or pick your own title) … but it’s also unnerving. Here’s my fear: unless Bloom is supervising the overhaul and has direct control of the major decisions that can revive the Cardinals, this team may turn into the Chicago White Sox in a couple of years. I sure hope not.

On that happy note …

Thanks for reading and have a nice weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.