Bernie’s Redbird Review: An Early 2025 ‘Watch List’ Of 25 St. Louis Cardinals Players.

THE WATCH LIST

With the Cardinals going with a “play the kids” season in 2025, the emphasis on youth and discovery will be front and center in the way we watch St. Louis baseball in the new year.

If the Cardinals are indeed serious about this, then we will see some of their young players receive a more extensive opportunity to perform and establish or enhance their value going forward beyond 2025.

A few quick things about this:

— I’m not convinced we’ll see a legitimate competition for playing time. For example, manager Oli Marmol seems to have already determined that Michael Siani will be the starting center fielder next season. Where does that leave Victor Scott II? Is this really a competition in the truest sense of the word? On the other side of this, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has made references to Andre Pallante getting a chance to compete for a slot in the starting rotation. Given that Pallante had the rotation’s best ERA from the time he moved in (May 29) until the end of the 2024 season, what does he have to prove? He proved his worthiness for the role last season. And why should Pallante or any younger pitcher have to “earn” a rotation spot when the Cardinals will simply default to the usual position of going with Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz just because they are veterans who will be paid a combined $28+ million in 2025? This is the opposite of competition.

— This part has been overlooked, but the Cardinals actually began a youth movement in 2024. Last season, rookie St. Louis position players ranked second among the 30 teams in the number of games played and plate appearances by rookies. Compared to other rookie groups, shortstop Masyn Winn and other Cardinal rookies were collectively tied for eighth in home runs, fifth in RBIs, fifth in stolen bases and first in runs scored. In 2024, only one major-league team (Milwaukee) benefited from more Wins Above Replacement Value (WAR) from rookies than St. Louis.

— Along the same lines, the STL position players age 24 or younger collectively ranked ninth in WAR in this age category among the 30 teams. So the youth brigade isn’t a new sensation for 2025. It will be a continuation of something the Cardinals had already started.

— “Play the kids” sounds good, and I have no objections to the premise or the plan. As someone who has spent the last two years hollering about the decline of the Cardinals’ outdated and intelligence-bankrupted player development operation and minor-league system when most media remained silent on this subject, I’d be a phony and a hypocrite to blast the Cardinals for finally taking on a project that is long overdue and absolutely necessary.

— The last thing I want to see is the Cardinals overpaying to buy more average/mediocre veteran talent that makes a minor impact (if that.) Having said that, I want to see the Cardinals actually follow through on their “play the kids” plan. That will be determined when we see the allocation of meaningful roles for young pitchers and position players. I’m not into slogans. I want to see proof of “play the kids” being a top priority instead of a marketing pitch.

OK.

Now that I’ve gotten my preliminary thoughts out of the way, it’s onto my Watch List. I’m going to go through this, player-by-player – 25 of them – and offer an assessment on each individual. I left a few out of this exercise – no offense, Chris Roycroft – but there is plenty of time to get these fellas covered at a later date.

Shall we begin?

1. Ryan Helsley. He’s coming off a career-best year, peaking for a franchise-record 49 saves in 2024. That was just one statistical measure that made Helsley special. He can become a free agent after the 2025 season. The optimal time to trade him is this offseason; the contending team that acquires Helsley can have him closing out games for a full season. Helsley’s value will never be higher than it is right now. Over the last three seasons, Helsley ranks second among MLB relievers in WAR, third in ERA, and fifth in Win Probability Added. I know that some of you will say, “the Cardinals can always trade him at the 2025 deadline,” which is true. And he certainly would command considerable interest by teams that are desperate for a closer. However … Helsley’s trade value would be reduced to NOTHING should he suffer a serious injury before the ‘25 trade deadline. That’s the risk. Best to deal him ASAP and cash in on an active market of closer-shopping teams.

2. Willson Contreras: He’s the best hitter and a strong candidate to take over a leadership role and moving him to first base was a smart and important step, simply because it will mean a lot more at-bats for the best bat on the team. He wants to be here to help this team through a transition. That used to be an admired quality in a player, but too many of the BFIB rip this man. It’s bewildering and embarrassing.

3. Nolan Arenado: if he isn’t traded, the hold on tight. He’ll be 34 in the spring. In his age-related decline phase, Arenado’s slugging percentage has dropped from .533 to .394 in two seasons. His OPS+ – 50 percent above league average in 2022 – was down to one percent above average in 2024. He won’t be happy in a rebuilding phase. And you don’t want a negative and possibly corrosive presence around so many young Cardinals in 2025. You don’t want a crab in the clubhouse. You want a new leadership group among current Cardinals to take over, and that generational shift won’t happen with Arenado still around. Trading Arenado would be best for everyone concerned.

4. Sonny Gray: I appreciate that he wants to stay with the Cardinals, but let’s see if Sonny still feels this way later this offseason … if, say, Atlanta comes calling with an attractive trade proposal. Gray would be a valuable trade piece. If Gray remains with St. Louis, the Cardinals will pay him a guaranteed $60 million over the next two seasons. Gray pitched well in a number of ways last season – high strikeout rate, very good WAR, and an impressive fielding independent ERA. But he pitched to a 4.81 ERA in his final 13 starts of the season. And on the road in 2024, Gray was pounded for a 5.20 ERA and a glaring number of home runs (16) in 72 and ⅔ innings. Depending on how Gray pitches this season, he could be a coveted trade candidate at the 2025 trading deadline. It’s all up to Gray, who has full no-trade protection he can use to control what’s next for him.

5. Ivan Herrera: He should be the No. 1 catcher, period. His offensive talent and potential is significant, and that can’t be taken for granted. He’s not as refined at calling games as Pedro Pages – but is getting better. And I trust that the manager, coaching staff and pitchers will band together to help Herrera throw out more base stealers. This is a problem that extends beyond the catcher’s actions.

So why am I geeked about Herrera? My goodness, 2025 is supposed to be about “let the kids play” and Herrera is the best example of doing just that. Here’s why …

* Last season Herrera was one of 48 major-league hitters, age 24 or younger, to have at least 250 plate appearances. And it’s important to note that Herrera had the fewest PA (259) of the 248 batters. But despite having limited opportunities, Herrera ranked 25th in the age group in WAR (2.1). That’s a robust WAR figure for only 72 games.

* Among the 48 hitters in this 24-or-younger classification, Herrera ranked third in batting average (.301), third in onbase percentage (.372), eighth wRC+ (27% above league average), ninth in OPS (.800) and 16th in slugging percentage (.428.)

* As fantasy-baseball analyst Eric Cross pointed out, last season there were only five big-league rookies that had a 75 percent contact rate or better and a hard-hit rate of 40% or higher. (Minimum 250 plate appearances.) The five were Jackson Merrill, Wyatt Lankford, Jackson Chourio, Andy Pages and Ivan Herrera.

Hopefully, someone who actually understands just how impressive all of this is for a young hitter will post a huge sign in Marmol’s office that has the words PLAY IVAN HERRERA! in huge block letters. If Herrera doesn’t get a heavy load of at-bats in 2025, then the “play the kids” initiative is a joke.

6. Brendan Donovan: More than any Cardinal position player that’s been a key part of the team for the past three seasons, Donovan is poised to become a team leader and give the Cardinals an overdue remix of the clubhouse culture. Donovan isn’t a puppy; he’ll turn 28 in January. He’s just a really good player – both offensively and defensively – and no Cardinal grasps the finer points of baseball like the savvy Donovan. With Paul Goldschmidt gone and Arenado (maybe) on the way out, it’s Donovan’s time to lead.

7. Erick Fedde: He has a season left before free agency, and the Cardinals will probably get some calls about him this winter. They should listen. If St. Louis isn’t in shape to contend, and this is a “play the kids” year, then there’s logic in trading Fedde depending on the quality of the offers that come in. What’s the point of renting this Scott Boras client for 2025, only to lose him to free agency? It makes sense to move Fedde for the right price in return. This is an example of how a “play the kids” season can help set up the Cardinals for the future. It isn’t about contending in 2025. It’s about contending in 2026, 2027, 2028, etc. And flipping a guy like Fedde fits the longer-range objective.

8. Masyn Winn: What a wonderful rookie season. He won the Fielding Bible Award for the best defensive shortstop in baseball. He accrued more Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference version) than any major-league rookie in ‘24. He led MLB shortstops in defensive runs saved. Winn played a lot of ball at age 22 – 150 games, 1,285 innings at short – and ran low on fuel late in the season, batting .188 over his final 22 games. But that was all part of building a career as he matures physically. I wasn’t a fan of Winn batting leadoff because of his poor walk rate and onbase percentage (.290) as the No. 1 hitter. As a team, the 2024 Cardinals had their worst leadoff onbase percentage (.292) by the franchise in a season since 1917. But don’t blame Winn; the decision to bat him leadoff was all on the manager.

9. Michael Siani: this graceful, range-roving center fielder was among the best defenders in baseball for 2024 – and all of the metrics back that up. Siani, who turns 26 next July, wasn’t much of a hitter in the minors but started to raise his offensive performance in 2024. During a 37-game stretch before Siani went out with a strained oblique on Aug. 3, the left-handed swinger batted .323 with a .362 OBP and .414 slugging percentage. He was out of synch after returning from injury in early September and gets a mulligan for that. But Siani’s upturn at the plate made us wonder if there’s more to him than defense and speed. Best stat on Siani: the 2024 Cardinals were 55-43 when he started, and 70-54 when he played.

10. Victor Scott II: The center fielder, who doesn’t have Siani’s experience, with nearly 1,200 fewer plate appearances than Siani in the minors and majors combined. Scott has more upside in speed and power and is the best base stealer in the organization. He improved defensively late in the 2024 season and finished the year with a plus rating in Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average. Scott’s bat showed some real sting over his final 22 games of the season; he hit for average, drew walks, and struck pitches with authority. I just don’t know if Scott will get a fair shake at competing with Siani for the starting center fielder gig in 2025. And I don’t think it’s best to keep him in a bench role in the majors instead of having him play every day in Triple A. Scott has a good future … but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Cardinals to bring him along to fruition. You may have noticed that the Cardinals specialize in screwing up young outfielders.

11. Jordan Walker: He had a promising rookie season in 2023. There were a few bumps along the way, but as a 21-year old rookie Walker hit .276 with a .342 onbase percentage and .445 slug. His OPS+ was 13 percent above league average. The Cardinals failed Walker with a preposterously poor plan to turn him into a right fielder – not giving him enough time or instruction at the new spot in the minors, then rushing him to the big leagues. His 2024 season was an all-around disaster. Confidence: gone. And now we’ll see if the St. Louis organization learned anything. If he finally gets the proper full-time coaching, instruction, patience and personal support to regain his confidence, Walker still has the talent to be special. And he doesn’t turn 23 until May. The 2025 “play the kids” campaign will largely go down as a failure if Walker and Nolan Gorman continue to unravel.

12. Nolan Gorman: Sigh. Through June 4 last season, Gorman slugged .508, put up an .829 OPS and had homered every 14 at-bats. He still was striking out too much, but the Cardinals could live with it because of his power supply. But from June 5 through Aug. 20 – before he was demoted to Triple A Memphis – Gorman batted .170, slugged a famished .219, staggered to a .511 OPS, homered every 36.4 at-bats, and struck out at a ghastly rate of 40.3 percent. How will the Cardinals go about the massive task of rebuilding Gorman’s plate approach and swing mechanics? Perhaps the new hitting coach (Brant Brown) will help. But metaphorically speaking, it may require an entire village to raise Gorman from the ground. He’ll be 25 in May. It’s too soon to give up on him. The people out there shrieking for the Cardinals to trade Gorman now will be the first people shrieking when he hits 39 homers for his next major-league team. This insanity can’t go on. But I repeat: there’s still time. Or maybe Chaim Bloom will just fire everybody a year from now.

13. Lars Nootbaar: When he plays, he’s good … often very good. And the more Nootbaar plays, the better he gets. His swing is rhythm and timing. But over the past two seasons the fragile Nootbaar has missed 103 in-season days because of five stays on the Injured List. Because of these various infirmities, Nootbaar has taken 100+ plate appearances in a month only three times in his last 11 months of baseball. Too much sitting and mending. Not enough hitting and fielding and elevating his team. The package is there: high onbase percentage, above-average slugging capability, a plus defender, good base runner, excellent contact skills, superb plate discipline, and an electric energy. But Nootbaar has averaged only 104 games started over the last two seasons and needs to get that up to about 140. He’ll be entering his age-27 season in 2025.

14. Alec Burleson: The big guy was rolling to a breakout season in 2024 but faded down the stretch, and was especially brutal with a .202 average and .226 slugging percentage over the final month. Rewinding back to early August, Burleson homered just twice in his final 173 at-bats of the season and slumped to a .632 OPS. I don’t know what to expect from Burleson early on in 2025, but he might have to reestablish himself. There are openings for playing time – left field, DH and some shifts at first base – but it’s up to Burleson to make the most of it. He’ll turn 26 a couple of days before Thanksgiving.

15. Thomas Saggese: The rookie infielder had the scouts buzzing and chirping during the recent Arizona Fall League season. And no wonder. In 18 games Saggese cranked a .391 average, padded a ridiculous .524 onbase percentage and slugged .594. Wind him up and let him go. Saggese is the epitome of the “play the kids” project. He can be kept busy at three infield spots, but is best at second base. It’s probably smart to give him some Grapefruit League time in left field. The future is almost now.

16. Luken Baker: you love him, and there’s nothing I can say that will decrease the fondness. The large right-handed slugger pulverizes left-handed pitching, and that’s a solid asset for the bench. Baker clobbered lefties for a .722 slugging percentage for the big club late last season … but in only 22 plate appearances. There won’t be a first-base platoon in St. Louis that includes his name, so I’m not sure why folks keep bringing that up. I hope Baker powers up in spring training to give the Cardinals a reason to find a place for him.

17. Pedro Pages: There’s a lot to like and respect, but the local media – with Marmol’s endorsement – has turned Pages into a combination of Jim Sundberg and Bill Freehan … with maybe some Molina brothers genetics mixed in. Let’s try and take it down a notch or two, OK? Y’all gonna be falling in love with Jimmy Crooks anyway.

18. Andre Pallante: Let’s revisit what I mentioned early in this column. To fill a void caused by injuries, Pallante was placed in the starting rotation on May 29 and made 20 starts the rest of the way. Here are the earned-run averages by STL starting pitchers from May 29 through the close of the season:

Pallante, 3.56
Fedde, 3.72
Lance Lynn, 4.20
Gray, 4.41
Gibson, 4.64
Mikolas, 5.19

Oh, but Pallante has to earn a rotation spot in 2025? And Mikolas and Steven Matz and some others can just walk into spring training and get handed one of the five spots? OK. But it’s going to be a wide-open competition, Miklasz! Play the kids! Pallante, 26, isn’t a kid … but you get the point.

19. Michael McGreevy: the former first-round draft choice, took some time to develop, but pitching coach Dusty Blake recommended some meaningful changes and McGreevy made an excellent impression in limited opportunities with the big club in 2024, crafting a 1.96 ERA in four appearances that included three starts. If this is a “play the kids” season, then why in the hell would McGreevy, 24, be excluded?

20. Matthew Liberatore: he can be a wipeout lefty reliever if the Cardinals would just leave him alone and quit moving him around.

21. Ryan Fernandez: He has the stuff of a good closer. As a rookie in 2024, Fernandez dominated hitters with his slider, holding them to a .182 batting average with a 41% whiff-swing rate and 36.4 percent strikeout rate. If Helsley is traded, Fernandez could be his successor.

22. JoJo Romero: I like the lefty reliever. Overall he did a heck of a job last season. But … after owning hitters with a 31 percent strikeout rate in the opening month of the 2024 season, Romero had an 18.3% strikeout rate the rest of the way and was rocked for an average of 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Can he rebound?

23. John King: Not a strikeout puncher, this lefty reliever is underrated. In 56 appearances last season he had a career-best 2.85 ERA and neutralized hitters from both sides of the plate with an outstanding 62 percent ground-ball rate. Sounds like a keeper for 2025.

24. Zack Thompson: I don’t have much to say about him. Because I have absolutely no idea what the Cardinals have planned next as they try to do whatever it is they are trying to do with the 19th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft. Thompson is a lefthander, of course. Maybe the Cardinals will tell Zack to forget about all of that and become a righthander?

25. Quinn Mathews: This exciting, abundantly talented No. 1 St. Louis prospect isn’t here yet. But the left-handed starting pitcher with a sharp mind and a dynamic arsenal will be here at some point in 2025. And his arrival to the majors will reassure the Cardinals and their fans: take a look, there are better days ahead.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.