Bernie’s Redbird Review: Are The Cardinals A Playoff-Bound Team? Or Is This A House Of Cards?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals return to work Friday with a three-game weekend series at Atlanta. So much for easing into the post All-Star Game part of the schedule. Might as well jump right in.

The Cardinals will play one of the most elite teams in the National League and do it in their yard. The Braves are outstanding at home this season with a .630 winning percentage that’s tied for fourth in the majors.

Atlanta possesses the NL’s No. 1 wild-card spot and is unlikely to give it back. The Cardinals have a chance to do something about that. The Redbirds go into Cobb County only 3 and ½ games behind the Braves and will see if they can win the series instead of getting tomahawk-chopped out of the place.

It isn’t supposed to be easy, even in the third year of a generous postseason format that enables three wild-cards holders in each league. This creates an extra lane to October for flawed teams, and the Cardinals are part of the gridlock.

As of Friday morning, here were the FanGraphs odds for the nine NL teams that have the best shot to qualify for the postseason. I’ll put the current wild-card position next to the applicable teams.

Phillies, 100%
Dodgers, 96.8%
(1) Braves, 94.1%
Brewers, 81.8%
(3) Mets, 44.3%
(2) Cardinals, 40.5%
Diamondbacks, 39.8%
Padres, 38.7%
Giants, 26.3%

The Cardinals are looking up at first-place in Milwaukee in the NL Central. After sweeping the Cubs in a doubleheader on July 13, the Redbirds were only 3 and ½ games behind the Brewers. But the Cardinals closed a disappointing 2-4 home stand with a loss to the Cubs the next day, and Milwaukee’s lead expanded to 4 and ½ games at the All-Star break.

That losing home stand served as a valuable reminder: the Cardinals can’t afford too many slips when there are opportunities to gain ground in the standings.

Milwaukee beat St. Louis on May 11 to open a huge nine-game lead. It was the seventh consecutive loss for the Cardinals, and at that moment they had a 10.4 percent probability of making the playoffs.

By winning 35 of their next 57 games before the break, the Cardinals steadied their balance, took some firm steps, and reset themselves.

But if this team indeed had momentum on their side, it began to fade during the 9-8 stretch before the All-Star recess. The Cardinals are 50-46 as they return to the field Friday night.

I remain undecided on the issue before us: will the Cardinals make the playoffs, or miss the playoffs? They have a lot working against them including a remaining schedule that has few soft spots and lots of head-to-head slamming against some of the finest teams in the majors.

The Cardinals could be in better shape right now – but we can say the same about all but a few of the 30 teams.

Looking at this through a wider view, I can’t complain too much given their frequent stumbles during a dreadful start.

Consider the daily tabulation on the state of the Cardinals during the first 74 games of the season through June 20 …

* They had a winning record at the end of two game days, April 6 and June 17.

* They were a .500 team on 11 days.

* They had a losing record at the end of 61 game days.

They were up against it … in a big way … for most of the first half. It took a lot of intense work for the Cardinals to find their way back after getting so lost.

Even with the dissatisfying home stand against the Royals and Cubs, the Cardinals have flown above .500 at the close of the last 22 games they’ve played, ascending to the season high point of six games over (48-42) on July 8.

If anything, I think the Cardinals are fortunate to be where they are.

You can even call them lucky.

I prefer to characterize the Redbirds as opportunistic — but vulnerable.

Here’s why:

– Based on their minus 38 run differential, which ranks 22nd overall, the Cardinals have an expected record of 44-52. But instead of being eight games under .500 they’re six games over .500. Using third-order winning percentage, which includes schedule difficulty and other underlying factors, the Cardinals should be 45-51.

– The Cardinals are walking on a high wire, and that’s dangerous. So many suspense-filled thrillers, and the Cardinals have a .590 winning percentage in games that have a three-run margin, either way. They’ve won 39 games by three or fewer runs, the most by a National League team. They’re tied for second in the majors with 18 one-run wins, and are tied for eighth in two-run victories. If the great St. Louis bullpen was an average bullpen, we’d be talking about a different set of won-lost numbers. And we’d probably be talking about the Cardinals being “sellers” at the trade deadline.

– The Cardinals rank 25th in the majors with an average of 0.98 home runs per game and are 25th in HRs with men on. Every National League team has launched more three-run shots than St. Louis. The Cardinals are especially dim with runners in scoring position; their 17 homers in RISP scenarios are last in MLB. The low firepower results in a lot of low-scoring games, and that’s the way it’s gone for the Cards this season.

– The Cardinals don’t offset the shortage of power by cashing in run-scoring opportunities. At the All-Star break they ranked 24th in RBIs, 27th in batting average and 29th in slugging percentage when batting with men in scoring position. Overall, only 30 percent of the St. Louis runners have scored this season, a rate that ranks 21st.

– The two pillars have cracks. This offense was built around the premise of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado being the strong, foundational forces. At the All-Star break, 62 major-league hitters had more home runs than Goldschmidt, and 144 had more homers than Arenado. They ranked 112th (Goldy) and 95th (Arenado) in RBIs. On the list of 141 qualifying big-league hitters, Goldschmidt was 110th in slugging, 15 spots ahead of Arenado.

– OK, then it must be run prevention. Right? If you can’t win many high-scoring brawls, then you have to be better than most teams at limiting runs. Is that the St. Louis secret? Answer: not really. The Cardinals have allowed 4.54 runs per game. That ranks 20th in the majors and is below the league-average yield of 4.39 runs per game. And even though their starting pitching is more stable and effective this season, the Cardinals still rank 21st with a 4.44 rotation ERA.

All of this is why the Cardinals are an enigma and so difficult to define. The bullpen is excellent (but more on that later.) The defense is very good. They run the bases well. Relative to league standards, the starting pitching is below average. They are not a “clutch” hitting team. They do not bombard the opposition with homers. They aren’t a dominant team at home and .500 on the road.

And as much as I’ve enjoyed heaping piles of paragraphs in praising the St. Louis bullpen, I wonder if the relievers can continue to fight off all of these late-game rallies by opponents. The protectors have been nearly perfect in this regard, and that won’t be easy to maintain.

Before the All-Star break, the Cards were 40-2 when leading a game after seven innings and a perfect 44-0 when ahead through eight innings. Can they do it again? Can Ryan Helsley take his superb first half and double up on it? That’s a tough ask. But we can be greedy. The best thing the Cardinals could do is hit, hit, hit and score bushels of runs. That would cut back on the number of times we expect this bullpen to compete in a super-hero mode.

This  all could be a house of cards – pun intended, I guess. Or the Cardinals continue to defy all of the factors that seemingly work against them. Either way, I’m looking forward to seeing what develops over the next two-plus months.

Enjoy the weekend!

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.