Bernie’s Redbird Review: As We Pause For The All-Star Break, An In-Depth Look At The Cardinals

The MLB All-Star break is here. This is positive news. From Monday through Thursday there will be no losses by the Cardinals, no stricken bodies headed to the Injured List, no distress in the dugout, no noise from the maddened crowds. 

After playing 90 games, shambling to a 21-31 record since May 14, and free-falling in the standings, the Cardinals could use a vacation.

They could also use a good starting pitcher, bullpen reinforcements, and a walloping bat that adds danger and depth. 

And with 72 regular-season games to go, I see other needs on the horizon: more offense (of course), tighter run prevention, more walks by their hitters, fewer walks by their pitchers, a rampant hot streak from Paul DeJong, and more rest for Yadier Molina (yeah, as if that will happen). 

The Cardinals need fewer injuries — and strong comebacks from injuries in the healthy form of starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas. The Redbirds need urgency from the front office, urgency on the field and a sharp reduction in rationalizations and excuses. 

They need more fans cheering at Busch Stadium and fewer fans brooding at home. And the Cardinals can do this by playing entertaining, winning baseball.

The Cardinals need Milwaukee to go tumbling, the Reds to go backwards, and some of the better Cubs players to go away in trades. 

The St. Louis National League baseball club must perform better on the road, must perform better in NL Central games, must perform better everywhere. There will be no time for cold streaks or losing streaks. 

For the Cardinals, going into the July 30 MLB deadline isn’t a question of “buyers or sellers.” It’s more about “winners or losers,” because of the absolute necessity for this team to pile up victories — and do it in a hurry. 

 If the Cardinals can win and win, management may be motivated to make move(s) later on — beyond the deadline. The trading doesn’t stop at the close of business on July 30. While more difficult to pull off, trades still can be made after that. 

There is no All-Star break for me. This is All-Star break analysis time, baby!

So, I’ll take a look at where the Cardinals have been over the first 90 games — good and bad — and where they must go over the final 72. And I’ll start by taking a gander at the Cards’ probability of qualifying for the postseason. 

THE OMINOUS ODDS: After winning at Arizona on May 28 the Cardinals were a season-best eight games over .500 at 30-22. The Cards were perched atop the NL Central, leading the Cubs by a half-game, the Brewers by three games, and the Reds by seven. 

Since ascending to that high point the Cardinals have lost altitude. They have the NL’s third-worst record since May 30 at 14-24; only Pittsburgh and Arizona have gotten shoved down more often than STL over that time. 

So much changed — and quickly — including the loss of No. 1 starter Jack Flaherty on May 31. The damaged Cardinals (44-46) go into the break in a third-place tie with the Cubs. They’re four games behind second-place Cincinnati and eight games in arrears to the division-leading Brewers. 

What are the Cardinals chances of rebounding to make the postseason? And what do the projection models tell us about the Cards’ most likely final record? 

➤ Fangraphs: 2.3 percent shot of making the playoffs; final record 78-84.

➤ Baseball Reference: 2.4% shot at the playoffs; final record 79-83. 

➤ Baseball Prospectus: 0.7% postseason chance; final record 76-86. 

THE CARDINALS: WHAT WENT WRONG?

1) THE OFFENSE. The Cardinals average 3.98 runs per game, 12th among the 15 NL clubs. They rank 13th in batting average (.230), last in onbase percentage (.301), 11th in slugging percentage (.379.) and 12th in OPS (.680)

The Cards have scored three runs or fewer in 53.3 percent of their games (48 times) and are 11-37 when that happens. In MLB only Pittsburgh has scored two or fewer runs in a game more times than St. Louis (36.) 

The onbase-percentage drag is a real problem. The Cardinals have the lowest walk rate (8%) by an NL team. And their OBP from the leadoff spot, .314, ranks 14th in the NL. And in the NL only the Mets have fewer at-bats with runners in scoring position than St. Louis. 

A low OBP combined with a weakening slugging percentage explains why the Cardinals have scored the second-fewest runs in the majors since the end of April — and the fewest runs in MLB since June 1. 

2) A WRECKED ROTATION: Dakota Hudson (elbow surgery) is out for the season, Flaherty has made only 11 starts this year. Miles Mikolas (forearm, shoulder) has made one start since the 2019 NLCS. Carlos Martinez, an extreme up-or-down starter, injured a thumb while batting on June 29. At minimum, he’ll be out until early September.

Even though Kwang Hyun Kim was sidelined twice with back issues, he’s still made 15 starts so I don’t consider him to be part of the shredded rotation. Kim has started only two fewer games than Adam Wainwright and has a dandy 3.11 ERA. 

The Cardinals have used nine different starting pitchers this season. Since June 1, during Flaherty’s absence, the only starters to consistently supply quality and innings are Waino and Kim. Wade LeBlanc has been fine in two of his three starts but has averaged only 4.3 innings in those outings. 

In their 17 starts since June 1, Wainwright, Kim and LeBlanc have combined for a 2.67 ERA. In the team’s other 19 games over that time, the Cards’ rotation ERA is 7.46. Yikes. 

For the season St. Louis starting pitchers rank 10th in the NL with a 4.20 ERA. But their MLB-poorest strikeout-walk ratio shapes an expected fielding-independent ERA of 4.74 which is the worst in the NL and 29th overall.

3) TOO MANY WALKS. NOT ENOUGH WALKS: Cardinals pitchers have walked more hitters and hit more batters than any MLB staff this season. The starters (10.1%) and relievers (13.6%) each have the worst walk rate in the majors. And the overall staff walk rate (11.5%) would be the worst by a Cards pitching staff since the stat first was tracked in 1916. (Source: Fangraphs.) 

Nearly 30 percent of the total runs allowed by the Cardinals this season were scored by a runner that’s been walked or hit by a pitch. 

But the plague of walks hurts the Cardinals in another profound way. Earlier I mentioned that the Cardinals’ No. 1 problem is a poor onbase percentage, a condition made more acute by a shortage of walks among their hitters. 

Because of the walk imbalance, the Cardinals’ hitters have an OBP that’s 33 points lower than the onbase percentage against the Cards pitchers. That’s a huge advantage for opponents, who benefit from putting a lot more runners on base than the Cardinals do. 

That leads to a substantial difference in run-producing opportunities for the Cardinals and their opponents: 

Plate appearances with RISP: Opponents 971, Cardinals 786. A difference of 185. 

Total runs scored with runners in scoring position: Opponents 310, Cardinals 267. A difference of 43 runs. 

And when the Cardinals get their chances with runners in scoring position, their .247 batting average ranks 21st overall and 11th in the NL. 

4) THE BULLPEN: Until showing signs of tiring during the two weeks leading into the All-Star break, Genesis Cabrera, Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes did a tremendous job in protecting late leads. And even though Ryan Helsley is coming on and pitching much better than he did earlier this season, the Cardinals are vulnerable in the middle innings. 

This season their relievers have a 5.01 ERA in the sixth and seventh innings (combined) which ranks 26th among the 30 bullpens. No surprise but the Cards have been outscored 101-60 in the sixth and seventh innings (combined.) 

The bullpen has the fifth-worst percentage (41%) in the majors in allowing inherited runners to score. 

Inherited runners or not, this bullpen pitches its way into trouble. Because of the bullpen’s bad habit of walking and hitting batters, the opponent OBP against STL relievers is .343, which ranks 27th. Ridiculous. 

But the walks and hit batters do harm. While the bullpen ERA (4.27) ranks tied for ninth in the NL, the expected fielding independent ERA, 4.99, is the worst in the majors. 

5) LACK OF DEPTH: Many of the flaws that I’ve alluded to so far are directly related to the thin depth among starters, relievers and position players. The overall production of the STL outfield was significantly held down by injuries that took Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader out of the lineup on multiple occasions. Without a solid bat to plug in, the Cardinals suffered offensively when O’Neill or Bader were missing. The Cardinals front office is to blame for the absence of a MLB-tested, MLB-proven hitter to serve as a fourth outfielder. The sparse rotation depth and 

The potential rotation shortage was discussed by fans and media all offseason, but the Cardinals did nothing to address the obvious risk. As for the bullpen, manager Mike Shildt has used 17 different relievers since June 1, trying to make do with a number of dumpster-dive relievers given to him by the front office. 

6) ABYSMAL ROAD RECORD: 21-28 overall. And they’ve lost 20 of their last 30 away from Busch Stadium. With only 32 road games remaining on the schedule the Cardinals have to toughen up in opponent ballparks. 

7) BRUISED IN THE NL CENTRAL: The Cards are 15-18 against division rivals; among NL Central teams only Pittsburgh (11-26) has done worse. NL Central success is a key factor for the first-place Brewers and second-place Reds. The Crew is 24-17 in the division; Cincinnati is 25-13. But at least the Cardinals will get a chance to do something about it. 

After the All-Star break their final 72 games include 43 contests against NL Central teams; that’s around 60 percent of their remaining schedule. The Cardinals will have 11 games against Milwaukee, 11 vs. Chicago, 10 vs. Pittsburgh and 9 against Cincinnati. 

8) BAD LUCK: True. The Cardinals have a .271 batting average on batted balls in play. That’s at the bottom of the NL and 28th in the majors. But this bad luck could turn into better luck after the All-Star break. The Cardinals are overdue. And more positive batted-ball outcomes can perk their offense, at least to some extent. 

THE CARDINALS: WHAT WENT RIGHT? 

1) NOLAN ARENADO: Starting All-Star third baseman in his first season as a Cardinal. So much fun to watch. There’s The Glove. The Arm. The Intensity. Among NL hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, Arenado is 5th in the NL in extra-base hits, tied for 6th in total bases, is 9th in RBI and t-10th in slugging percentage among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. His adjusted OPS of 128 is seven points higher than his 121 OPS+ as a Rockie. 

2) ADAM WAINWRIGHT: He has a 3.58 ERA in 17 starts. And since Jack Flaherty went on the Injured List, Ol’ Uncle Charlie is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in seven starts. The All-Star game should have been graced by his presence. And though Yadier Molina has slowed behind the plate, it’s still a pleasure to watch Wainwright pitch to Molina. 

3) TYLER O’NEILL: Sure, the playing-time pauses are frustrating. And it’s been a while since his last home run. But O’Neill’s development as a hitter is an obvious plus for the 2021 Cardinals. O’Neill is batting .275. And among NL hitters with at least 250 plate appearances he ranks 7th in slugging (.546), and 11th with an OPS+ of 144. 

4) THE LATE SHOW: I referenced them earlier, but the Cardinals have a good thing going with late-inning lead defenders Cabrera, Gallegos and Reyes. Now, please, baseball gods … keep them healthy. 

5) DYLAN CARLSON: He looked tuckered out before the break, and his numbers have come down. But there’s a lot to like about Carlson including his rookie poise. He’ll take a walk and get on base (.343 OBP) and eventually his profile will feature consistent power. His .735 OPS is fourth among NL rookies that have at least 200 plate appearances this season. 

6) DEFENSE & BASERUNNING: The Cardinals rank 10th in the majors with +21 defensive runs saved. They’re tied for 5th in the majors with the percentage of extra bases taken (45%) on batted balls in play. Their net baserunning gain (+21) is the best in the NL Central and sixth in the NL. 

7) IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE: Based on the Cardinals’ awful minus 40 run differential — fourth-worst in the NL — their record should be 41-49 based on the Pythagorean model for expected victories. The difference between the Cards’ Pythagorean record and actual record is three games; that means they’re tied for third in the majors on the list of MLB’s unluckiest teams so far. 

8) GOLDY’S WARMING TREND: In 147 plate appearances since June 1, Paul Goldschmidt is batting .305 with a .381 OBP and .511 slug. Based on park and league adjusted runs created, that’s 46 percent above the league average offensively. And Goldy has struck out only 17 percent of the time since the beginning of June.

I’m out of words. 

Thanks for reading … 

–Bernie 

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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