Bernie’s Redbird Review: Brewers Can Block Cardinals From The 2nd Wild Card Spot

Welcome to The Redbird Review

Gosh — or should I say Oshkosh? — the Milwaukee Brewers are good. Not that we needed reaffirmation of this obvious reality, but the Crew moved into Busch Stadium, took control early and locked in a 2-0 victory over the Cardinals.

The Brewers are 73-47 overall. They’re a ridiculous 41-20 on the road, best in the bigs, and have won 16 of their last 18 when traveling outside of Wisconsin.

The Brewers have MLB’s No. 1 winning percentage (.684) since May 22; Tampa Bay is next at .622. For just about three months now it’s been the Brewers at the top, with the other 29 teams straining their necks while looking up.

After six shutout innings by Corbin Burnes, the Brewers lowered their starting-pitching ERA to 3.00 on the season. Only the Dodgers (2.90) have a less polite rotation.

And get this: after encountering 22 batters and holding the Cardinals to two hits — both singles — Burnes seemed disappointed with his performance.

“This Cardinals team likes to work the count against me,” Burnes said via postgame Zoom. “They try to get deep in counts. Tonight, we were fighting everything mechanically. Didn’t have the best stuff. I didn’t really have that good cutter, down and away.

Ol’ Burnsie didn’t permit a hit until the sixth inning? The Cards went 0 for 5 with men in scoring position? Gee, that’s just so terrible. Somebody try to cheer him up. Maybe show Burnes that his ERA is down to a sparkling 2.13 — the second lowest in the majors among qualifying starters.

And Burnes compensated for the off-kilter cutter by looping more curve balls than usual and that seemed to take the Cardinals by surprise. When the Cards had their one chance to break through on Burnes in Tuesday’s game — men on first and third, one out — the righthander retired Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neil on curves.

Despite their starting pitcher letting them down by being less than perfect and only three-quarters menacing instead of full metal jacket, the Brewers moved to 26 games over .500 and are 8 ½ games above the Reds in the NL Central.

The Brewers hitters were apparently in a playful mood. They surrounded Cards starter Adam Wainwright with runners, making him work and sweat and wiggle his way to multiple escapes. Wainwright pitched to 29 batters and 12 reached base. He was tagged for nine hits, including five doubles.

The Brewers had a .414 onbase percentage and slugged .538 against Waino. More than half of their plate appearances (15) vs. Wainwright came with runners in scoring position. But the 40-year-old St. Louis pitching legend fought off the Cheeseheads and limited the wounds: two earned runs in six innings.

This was no moral victory, but at least Wainwright and other arms prevented the Brewers from blowing this game out early. The visitors had only three hits in 15 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

The Crew could not turn their frequent annoyances into a basket of runs.

Wainwright’s resistance was admirable but the STL bats never showed up.

Question: Are the Cardinals — and y’all — still hepped about having 13 games remaining against the Brewers?

After Tuesday night’s loss these STL-MIL matchups are down to 12, and the third-place Cardinals trail the Brewers by 11 games in the NLC. Other than manager Mike Shildt, Mrs. Shildt, the players’ immediate family members, and Fredbird, and a the media cheer squad, no one believes the Cardinals can overthrow the Brewers.

The Cardinals, however, can catch the collapsing Padres for the NL second wild-card spot. And the Cardinals can shove the Reds out of the way — as well a couple of other wild-card contenders — while stalking the increasingly frazzled Padres. The Cards are only four behind the Padres, and trail the Reds by 2.5. That’s doable, right? Mostly because those other teams aren’t reliable enough to box the Cardinals out.

Except…

That grand, giant, big and exciting 13-game opportunity to take on the Brewers is now an imposing, unsettling 12-game obstacle that could block the Redbirds from getting their little beaks on that wild-card ticket. There is a roadblock between St. Louis and Milwaukee, and it looks like The Great Wall Of China.

Speaking of the Cardinals’ tough situation, Burnes sounded an ominous note after Tuesday’s game. It may have been an unofficial warning.

“For them to get back in it, they’re going to have to win a lot of baseball games,” he said. “And that’s going to include beating us to get back in it. Their path to the postseason is probably going to come through us.”

Oh, brother.

Let’s go with the Bird Bytes: 

TYLER O’NEILL: In his last eight games Bro is 2 for 27 (.074) with a strikeout rate of 48 percent. Well, at least the two hits were bombaroos. And at least the strikeout plague has been medicated by an 18 percent walk rate by T.O. over this time. And at least O’Neill is the best left fielder in the majors with 11 defensive runs saved, and he nailed two Brewers with excellent throws in Tuesday’s game. So even when the big man is deep into the whiff cycle, he’s still getting positive stuff done. 

HARRISON BADER: Last 17 games, not good. The batting average is .188 and all 12 hits are singles. Not many walks; a .243 OBP during this stretch. And, perhaps most troublesome of all, a 32.% percent strikeout rate. In Tuesday’s loss Bader and O’Neill were a combined 0 for 8 with five strikeouts. 

Now, let’s give a warm St. Louis welcome to outfielder Austin Dean. In his return from the minors Dean pinch hit Tuesday. Milwaukee closer Josh Hader struck him out in about four seconds. Or so it seemed. 

ADAM WAINWRIGHT: Despite his “loss” to the Brewers, Wainwright has 2.65 ERA in his last 14 starts, and the Cardinals are 10-4 in those games. 

GOLDY STILL GOING STRONG: Two more hits last night. in his last 32 games Paul Goldschmidt is batting .331 with a .397 OBP and slugging .520 for a .917 OPS. Plus: six doubles, six homers, 21 runs, 24 RBI.

STARTING ROTATION UPDATE: Here I go again. But over the last 40 games Cardinals starting pitchers have combined for a 3.26 ERA. That’s third-best in the majors behind the Dodgers (2.37) and Brewers (2.58.) Cards starters have held opposing hitters to a .239 average (6th), .307 OBP (9th), and .379 slug (7th) since June 28. And the walk rate (7.7%) is about average over the last 40. 

HEALTHIER ROTATION INNINGS: The St. Louis rotation ranks 18th among the 30 teams in innings pitched since June 28. The starters have averaged 5.38 innings per start over the last 40 games; the National League average this season is 5.1 innings per start. Let’s see: 3rd best ERA, above-average innings per start, a team record of 24-16 over that time. This is hardly grotesque, and it isn’t a crisis. But please — by all means, continue with the false narratives. Don’t mind the big grouch here. I just kinda like them ol’ facts. 

Thanks for reading … 

–Bernie 

Check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com  … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.

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* All stats used here are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Stathead, Bill James Online, Fielding Bible, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball Net unless otherwise noted.