Bernie’s Redbird Review: Can The 2024 Cardinals’ Offense Be Saved?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The standings math is grim, but I don’t want to totally eliminate the Cardinals from playoff contention just yet. I’m not being naive here. I just respect the process. Cue up Lenny Kravitz: It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over. I didn’t know Lenny was a Yogi Berra disciple, but I digress.

Can the Cardinals depend on their offense to pile up runs and victories? They have to get hot. They have to assemble winning streaks. They have to support their pitchers, and fire up a down-and-out fan base.

Good luck with all of that. During their one impressive run of success this season, the Cardinals went 33-18 but didn’t exactly pound the yarn out of the baseball. Over the 51 games the Cardinals averaged 4.6 runs. That’s above average, yes – but nothing sensational. They did somewhat better at producing runs with men in scoring position, but were still below league average in RISP conversions over that time.

So what, if anything, can be done to trigger this offense? We know that the Cardinals won’t be saved by miracle-working batting coaches. It’s up to the men with the bats. If they don’t hit, they’ll whiff at making the postseason. And even if the Redbirds do hit pitches and do damage, they’d still be a long way from hitting the lottery.

But I like to think about such things. And I have thoughts. These are pretty basic items. Nothing too fancy.

1. Cash in more runs. Duh. Genius suggestion! With runners in scoring position the 2024 Cardinals are more of a threat to themselves instead of opponents. They have a .227 average, .335 slugging percentage and .637 OPS in RISP situations. The first season of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s franchise ownership was back in 1996, and no Cardinal team has been this bad in getting runs in with men on base. And there’s no competition, either. Their RISP deliveries in 2024 are historically hideous. Since 1996, nothing in the team’s RISP area has been close to being this terrible. Is it possible to take something so rotten and suddenly make it beautiful? Probably not. But if there’s no improvement with RISP over the final 35 games, then the Cardinals will be a RIP team.

2. Do better against four-seam fastballs: the Cardinals are among the worst teams in the show at winning the stick vs. ball battle on four-seam heaters. They’re 23rd in batting average (.232), 25th in hard-hit rate, 28th in barrel rate, and 28th in slugging percentage. That is all.

3. Do better against cut fastballs: We know that the Cardinals do a poor job of hitting lefty pitchers. And that includes their right-handed batters. Here’s a big part of the problem, and it’s brutal: this season STL’s right-side batsmen have the worst batting average in the majors (.125) when a lefty throws them a cutter. Good grief.

4. Lars Nootbaar. Still waiting. What’s it going to be from here on out? His left-handed bat is supposed to provide power and a nice on-base percentage. He’s supposed to be a wheel in this offense, but it hasn’t worked out so well. Since returning from the IL on July 8, Nootbaar is hitting .226 with a .343 slug. His onbase percentage is an unremarkable .321. And Nootbaar has three doubles and three homers in 102 at-bats since returning. Here’s the worst part: the Cardinals can’t ignite if Nootbaar is feeble against right-handed pitchers. And since his July 8 return date, Nootbaar is hitting .192 with a .333 slug and .598 OPS vs. righties. Ugh.

5. Willson Contreras must power up. I’m a big fan of the hardwired catcher, but he’s been dormant in the power department. In his last 22 games, Contreras has a .217 average and is slugging .325. He has two homers in 83 at-bats over that time – and both deep shots came in the same game. After muscling for a .532 slug in July, Contreras has to find his way back there again.

6. Time for some Burly Ball, Part Two: Over the last month, Alec Burleson has two homers and a .337 slugging percentage in 108 plate appearances. The club needs the big man to give ‘em a blast.

7. The outfield is wretched offensively. Who can help? Hello? Anyone? To recap: Nootbaar isn’t getting much done, Burleson has slowed down, Jordan Walker was called up for about 15 minutes before the Cardinals sent him back to Memphis. Michael Siani – who was hitting for a good average – is on the IL. And the Cardinals don’t have Dylan Carlson to sit around anymore; he’s has an .804 OPS since being traded to the Rays. OK. Since the All-Star break, St. Louis outfielders (minus any DH at-bats) are hitting .237 with a .320 slug and .629 OPS. And get this: since the break, Cardinal outfielders have lofted four home runs in 325 at-bats. C’mon. And this may get worse because Brendan Donovan will be playing a lot of second base in the aftermath of Nolan Gorman’s flameout and subsequent demotion to Memphis.

8. A related note: the Cardinals need a lot more from Tommy Pham. And if he can get cranking, the outfield would receive a transfusion of offense. But after going 6 for 10 with a grand-slam homer and six RBIs in his first three games with the Cardinals, Pham has gone 7 for 46 (.152) with a .304 slug and six RBIs in 15 games.

9. Can Paul Goldschmidt get hot for a few weeks? Please? Maybe? Well. In his last 16 games, Goldy is batting .155 with a .234 OBP and .293 slug. And over that time he’s gone 9 for 58 (.155) with runners in scoring position. I do not intend to be disrespectful, but Luken Baker could probably do more than that.

10. Masyn Winn would help by getting on base more often. In theory, anyway. Look, Winn is one of the few Cardinals that have exceeded expectations in 2024. The fans love him. The Cardinals love him. And this is one tough dude; you don’t see him losing his confidence and going to pieces when he cools down. He just adjusts and kicks back in. That said, Winn has a .298 onbase percentage in 322 plate appearances as the leadoff man this season. Winn is improving, having provided a .318 leadoff onbase percentage since the start of July. But we’d like to see that increase even more to set up more frequent RBI opportunities for guys that follow him in the lineup. That’s the other challenge, though. As you may have heard, the Cardinals have a problem knocking in runs.

10a. Nolan Arenado is hitting for average, but a few more home runs would be swell.

That’s all I have for now.

Pardon my typos.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.