Bernie’s Redbird Review: Can’t Trust The Offense. That Puts Pressure On The Cardinals’ Pitchers.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Greetings! As you know by now, the Cardinals won their three-game series against Milwaukee. I give this relatively minor success a thumbs-up, especially since the Redbirds dropped the opener and had to take two consecutive games from the Brewers.

Task completed. Now what? Thanks for asking. I have three points to make as we get the latest Review underway …

1. If you want to know if winning this series changes my view of the Cardinals’ viability as a postseason contender, the answer is a firm “No.” They’re five games away from wild-card residency, have four teams ahead of them, and are down to 35 games remaining on the regular-season schedule.

The menu of games will soften after Sept. 4, but look at the teams they’ll play before then: 13 total games against Minnesota, San Diego, NY Yankees, and Milwaukee. The Yankees and Brewers lead their divisions, and the Padres and Twins currently hold wild-card tickets. The four teams have a combined winning percentage of .569 and are collectively 71 games over .500.

Of the next 13 contests only four (vs. the Padres) will be played at Busch Stadium. And as the Cardinals arrive in the Twin Cities for the weekend, they carry a 29-34 road record.

For the Cardinals to wriggle their way into a legitimate shot to qualify for the postseason, they can’t get blown out over the next 13 games. So there’s really no reason to gauge how they’ll do beyond Sept. 4 until we see how they do before Sept. 4.

2. For the Cardinals to emerge as a gutsy challenger from a longshot position, their pitching staff will have to contain a sequence of lively offense. Among the 30 MLB teams, the Yankees (2nd), Twins (6th), Padres (10) and Brewers (11th) comfortably rank above the league average in runs scored per game. The Redbird pitchers did an admirable job of quieting the Milwaukee offense at Busch Stadium this week. But that can’t be a one-off deal. Going forward, St. Louis pitching must be firm in preventing runs.

3. The Cardinals will need a blitz of offense to get through the next 13 games with a winning record – and then some. Their hitters can’t dillydally. There’s no time for that. But does anyone really expect an all-out assault from this Cardinals’ offense in conflicts with four pitching staffs that are better than league average in limiting runs? That’s why the St. Louis pitchers have to deliver. To succeed, the Cardinals will have to win a good share of low-scoring games. In their only loss to the Brewers, the Cardinals allowed three runs. The game was there for the taking. And in the final game of the Milwaukee series, Miles Mikolas and three relievers teamed for a 3-0 shutout. If the pitching collapses over the next 13 competitions, the Cardinals will likely end up in grave trouble.

For the Cardinals to have a chance of winnowing the gap in the wild-card race, it’s imperative for their pitchers to perform at a consistently high level the rest of the way. The St. Louis offense is too sketchy to count on, and a precariously narrow path to playoff to genuine contention can only be kept open by strict performances by their pitchers. It’s a lot to ask for, let alone expect. Before the Brewers came to town, the Cardinal pitchers ranked 23rd in the majors with a 5.10 ERA in August. They improved on that to win the series but can’t relapse.

Let us proceed …

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Thursday’s win over the Brewers gave the Cardinals a 3-1 record in their last four home series, with wins over Texas, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee and a loss to the LA Dodgers. The Cardinals also lost one game to the Mets, who were in town to play a makeup game left from a rainout in May.

The Cardinals are 7-12 (.368) in August and have averaged only 3.6 runs per game for the month … Even with the nice series win over the Brewers, the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games … the Redbirds are 10-16 (.385) since July 24, and 15-22 (.405) in their last 37 games.

POSTSEASON PICTURE, STILL CLOUDY: Taking two of three from the Brewers didn’t do much for STL’s playoff odds. As of Friday morning FanGraphs gave the Cardinals an 0.6 percent possibility of winning the NL Central, a 2.9% shot at seizing a wild-card spot, and a 3.4% probability of making the playoffs. Eight NL teams have better odds to qualify for the postseason than St. Louis.

OBLIGATORY STANDINGS CHECK: The second-place Cardinals still trail the first-place Brewers by 10 games in the NL Central. The Cards are five games out of the third wild-card placement, currently occupied by the Braves. But in the wild-card pursuit the Redbirds also trail the Mets by 3 and ½ games, the Giants by one game. Back to the NL Central: the Cardinals lead third-place Cubs by a half- game, the enigmatic Reds by 1 and ½ games, and are three games ahead of the last-place Pirates.

NOLAN ARENADO, A GO-GO: In the Milwaukee series the STL third baseman went 5 for 13 (.385) and thwacked the Brewers for two doubles, a grand slam and five RBIs. Arenado provided a 2-0 lead for the Cardinals with an RBI single in the bottom of the seventh, increasing STL’s win expectancy to 94 percent. Arenado is putting together his finest month of the season, leading the Cardinals in batting average (.315) onbase percentage (.367), slugging (.507), OPS (.874), and RBIs (15) for August. No other Cardinal has driven in more than eight runs this month.

MASYN WINN: Just wanted to mention that he went 6 for 15 (.400) against Milwaukee. The rookie’s wRC+ for August is 23 percent above league average offensively. That’s second-best on the team to Arenado this month.

TIP OF THE OL, BALLCAP:  As I mentioned earlier, the St. Louis pitchmen did an outstanding job of keeping a productive Milwaukee offense down. The Brewers scored six runs in the second game (and lost) but managed three runs in the first game and were shut-out in the series finale.

Even with the six-run yield in the middle game, the Cardinals pitching staff had an overall 2.89 ERA in 28 innings, and didn’t allow a home run the entire time. The Brewers had only six extra-base hits in 114 plate appearances during the series.

In their first seven games against St. Louis this season, the Brewers went 6-1, averaged 6 runs per game, slugged .435 and generated a .780 OPS.

In the three games at Busch this week, the Crew averaged 3 runs, and had a lowly .306 slug and .631 OPS.

Cards starters Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas combined for a 2.12 ERA in the three games. The St. Louis bullpen had some turbulence, with a terrible 17.4 percent walk rate in the series, and that led to a 4.09 ERA.

Pardon the nitpick, but the starting pitchers didn’t strike many Brewer hitters out (only 14.7%) and issued too many walks (10.3%) The relievers and the starters had to work their way out of trouble – and came through for the most part. But the underlying vulnerability can be dangerous.

There were other pitching positives in this series victory. Closer Ryan Helsley had a win and a save, shutting the Brewers down in both St. Louis wins. Hels Bells leads the majors with 39 saves and hasn’t been nicked for a run in his last five appearances.

In Wednesday’s 10-6 rollercoaster ride, Cards relievers recovered from setbacks to hold the Brewers scoreless over the final 2 and ½ innings. The relievers stepped up Thursday for three blank innings to complete a shutout initiated by Mikolas. In the game that decided the series, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Helsley snuffed any real chance of a Milwaukee comeback.

NOTES ON MR. MIKOLAS: His variety of pitches had the Brewers stuck on the ground Thursday. The right-hander’s 12 ground-ball outs were coaxed on the slider (5), four-seam fastball (4), sinker (2) and curve (1).

Mikolas was flicked for two hits and a walk in six innings. After the Brewers had a one-out double and single in the first inning, they were out of luck against Mikolas. He retired the 16 of the final 17 hitters he faced, with the only runner reaching on a walk. Mikolas entered the start with a 5.41 ERA and left it with a 5.19 ERA.

NEXT ON THE SKED: It’ll be righthanders galore this weekend in Minneapolis. All six scheduled starters are righties. All times listed are STL time.

Friday, 7:10 pm: Andre Pallante vs. David Festa (4.69 ERA).

Saturday, 6:10 pm: Sonny Gray vs. Pablo Lopez (4.47 ERA).

Sunday, 1:10 pm: Erick Fedde vs. Zebby Matthews (3.60 ERA).

I’ll be back with more, later.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.