THE REDBIRD REVIEW
The Cardinals sleep walked through a 6-0 loss to the Mets on Monday afternoon, and I don’t know what to say after sitting through it.
Actually, I do know what to say: Thank You, Cardinals, for your role in making sure I got a chance to nap after waking up way too early yesterday. I didn’t miss much. Just another depressing defeat.
After the Cardinals all but nodded off Monday, manager Oli Marmol didn’t like a question from the media seats, wondering about the team’s urgency. Marmol insisted that urgency isn’t the problem. Well, he’s probably right about that because the Cardinals have much larger issues to resolve — and soon — or they’ll flicker out and fade from whatever race they’re running … if they’re running. Because yeah, as I mentioned Monday morning, I hate that overused word (urgency). But whatever the Cardinals are doing, it ain’t nearly enough. We all can talk for hours about the stuff they’re not doing. And that includes bringing the constant intensity to the field that’s that’s necessary to grind out wins during these dog days of summer.
It’s now or never, boys. You’re .500 over the last 42 games, and that pace will lead you to one place, and it ain’t first place or a wild-card spot. Nope, playing .500 ball the rest of the way will lead you straight to the offseason.
Let’s Review …
OFFENSE: The word of the day is “moribund.” No runs, dominated by a left-handed starter, 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position, seven men left on base. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five games. During this 1-4 bummer they’ve averaged 2.8 runs, hit .207, and wilted to a .580 OPS. That’s not the worst of it. In flopping to the Cubs and Mets, the Cardinals had three hits in 34 at-bats with runners in scoring position. That’s an .094 batting average, my friends. Oh, and they struck out 34.3 percent of the time in their RISP plate appearances. I’m sorry, there is no excuse for this.
ALLERGIC REACTION TO LEFT-HANDED PITCHING: New York’s Sean Manea must have been salivating as he went to the mound Monday. A lefty pitcher can’t expect guaranteed results every time out, but I imagine Manea must have felt great about the matchup vs. St. Louis. Indeed, he pitched seven shutout innings, getting flicked for six hits while striking out 35.7 percent of his batters faced on this steamy day. The latest failure left the Cardinals with a .227 average against LHP this season, and they’re ranked 29th among the 30 teams against lefties in onbase percentage, slugging and OPS. Water flowing underground. Same as it ever was. Here a twister comes, here comes the twister. Same as it ever was. (Hat tip, David Byrne.)
ANDRE PALLANTE: The right-hander was good for the first four innings (one run) but got baked in the fifth by the hot temperature and a determined sequence of great at-bats by New York. The Mets absolutely wore Pallante down. After getting the edge on Francisco Lindor with an 0-2 count, Pallante threw four consecutive balls for a walk. The Mets had the bases filled with one out, and Pallante was up to 25 pitches. What happened next was predictable: on the 29th pitch Tyrone Taylor ripped a bases-clearing three run double. And in doing so, Taylor doubled the NYM lead from 3-0 to 6-0. Pallante was belatedly removed after his 34th pitch of the fifth. Way too late. Pallante threw 38 percent of his 90 pitches for the game in that fateful fifth. But did it matter? The Cardinals didn’t score a run. Pallante could have pitched a gem, and the result would have been the same. Another loss. The Cardinals have dropped 14 of their last 23 games and are 16-18 since June 27.
PALLANTE VS. RH BATS: In the start, the Mets’ right-handed batters went 4 for 12 (.333) with two doubles, a walk and five RBIs. Dealing with right-side bats has been a weakness during Pallante’s big-league career, and that problem resurfaced Monday. RH batters have a .277 average and a .429 slug in Pallante’s starts this season. He has a cumulative 5.83 ERA against them in his 11 starts.
STARTING PITCHING: Turning the clock back to June 18, the St. Louis starters have a 5.15 ERA in their last 42 games. That ranks 23rd in the majors over that time. The rotation’s ERA was 4.08 in the team’s first 71 games. That was seventh in the NL and 15th overall. In their current 1-4 slide, Redbirds starting pitchers have a 6.51 ERA. This is an ominous trend, but perhaps the Cardinals will get three solid-to-strong starts from Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Kyle Gibson in the three-game series against visiting Tampa Bay. against Tampa Bay over the next two nights. Someone in this rotation needs to step up and get this rotation on a calmer and more confident groove.
HOME-FIELD DISADVANTAGE: The Cardinals are 5-7 in their last 12 games at Busch Stadium – and a blah 26-29 at home overall in 2024.
SCHEDULE UPDATE: Beginning Tuesday, the Cardinals enter a 30-game stretch that should tell us if they’re a serious postseason contender – or not. On the schedule, 90 percent of the next 30 games will be played against teams with a winning record, and all of those teams went into Tuesday with a higher winning percentage than St. Louis. Tankathon rates the remaining STL schedule as the third most difficult in the majors behind Tampa Bay and Kansas City.
METS, CARDINALS GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS: After a loss to the Diamondbacks on June 2, New York fell to a season-worst 11 games under .500 at 24-35. But since reaching the low point, the Mets are 35-18 for an excellent .660 winning percentage that leads the majors since June 3.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals (57-56) have slipped to third place in the NL Central, with the second-place Pirates ahead of them by a percentage point. The Pirates are 14-8 in their last 22 games, with the primary reason being a very good ERA (3.37) … the Cardinals are back to six games behind first-place Milwaukee … the Pirates and Cardinals are four games out of the third wild-card spot, with the Mets in front of them at only 1 and ½ games from the third spot. Right now Atlanta, Arizona and San Diego are nestled in the three wild-card berths.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: The Cardinals are experiencing their own version of a stock-market crash. They reached their highest point of the season with a win at Washington on July 8 and were six games above .500 at 48-42.
At that stage the Fangraphs projection model gave St. Louis 21.4 percent chance of winning the division, a 34.3 percent shot at grabbing a wild-card and an overall 55.6% probability of making the postseason.
After Monday’s drubbing by the Mets, the Cardinals have just a 9.7 percent chance of winning the division, a 6.2% shot at a wild-card and an overall postseason probability of 15.9%. A big change over the last month — to say the least.
DYLAN CARLSON RETURNS: The former Cardinal outfielder returns to Busch, his home from 2020 until this year’s trading deadline on July 30. St. Louis selected him out of high school with the 33rd overall choice in the 2016 MLB draft. In his first three games for Tampa Bay, Carlson went 2 for 8 with a two-run homer and eight strikeouts.
“Overall, I mean, [I’m] 25 years old. I feel like I’ve got a lot of baseball ahead of me,” Carlson told media that cover the Rays. “I feel like I’m in a really good spot here with this organization, and I just think it’s a good match.”
The Cardinals received right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong from Tampa Bay in exchange for Carlson. Armstrong has looked good so far, striking out six in four innings with one run allowed on a solo homer.
A warm welcome home to Tampa Bay pitcher Pete Fairbanks, a St. Louisan who graduated from Webster Groves High School before pitching at Mizzou.
“I’m pretty excited,” Fairbanks told Tampa Bay media. “Should be a pretty good turnout for a lot of people. I played there in high school. I played there in college. And now, hopefully, [I will] get an inning there in the big leagues.”
And another welcome home for Rays outfielder Kameron Misner, a Mizzou alum who made his MLB debut on Aug. 2. He grew up in Poplar Bluff.
Misner, the grandson of a cattle farmer, is fired up about coming to St. Louis. Here’s a fantastic Misner quote, courtesy of MLB.com: “Where I’m from, everyone’s diehard Cardinals fans. Rural area, a bunch of farmers, they get off work and they all drive their tractors around listening to Cardinals games. It’s pretty cool. I’m really looking forward to it. It’s going to be awesome.”
As always, thank you for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.
Please check out the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes. Please subscribe, and here’s the link: @TheBernieShow
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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
