Bernie’s Redbird Review: Change Already Is Underway. What’s Next For The St. Louis Cardinals?

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Friday afternoon, the Cardinals announced the retirement of Gary LaRocque, their longtime farm-system director. It was the first signal, letting us know that change was coming. Change was underway. Prepare for more changes. It’s like David Bowie’s hit song: Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes. 

“There’s going to be some changes,” Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman on KMOX.

LaRocque, 71, will serve as a consultant for the Cardinals in 2025. There’s no need to get angry over that. Save the rage for the problems that matter. LaRocque has been with the organization since 2008. He’s not the reason why the St. Louis player-development has declined in recent years.

Why do I say that? Because LaRocque doesn’t draft the players. And he doesn’t have the authority to set a budget, or hire the number of coaches and instructors, or spend what’s necessary to update the Cardinals with technology that includes full-service pitching labs and hitting labs. The smaller staff sizes and insufficient funding of developmental tools are the responsibility of ownership. And the Cardinals aren’t keeping up with other major-league teams in these areas.

So why keep LaRocque around? Because he has vast knowledge of the farm system, down to the minor details. He knows what’s working. He knows what’s failing. He knows what the Cardinals must do to catch up. And when the Cardinals hire a new farm-system director, that person will have many questions, and need to be filled in on some details – and in that context LaRocque can be a valuable resource. The tantrums that some folks are throwing over LaRocque receiving a one-year paycheck gift from the Cardinals is ridiculous.

There are much bigger issues to worry about.

1. Will Chaim Bloom be appointed as the new head of baseball operations in advance of 2025, with John Mozeliak moving into the background in a lesser role? Here’s the scary thing: I don’t know. Mozeliak is under contract through the 2025 campaign and plans to stay on. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be running the department.

2. If the Cardinals are ready to move forward with Bloom, then what’s the point of delaying? Having Mozeliak around for another season won’t impact Bloom’s work – provided that chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. makes the line of authority very clear – with no uncertainty – and assures fans that Bloom will make all baseball-related decisions.

3. Anything less than a full commitment to Bloom as the baseball man in charge would be a huge misstep by the owner. DeWitt would be absolutely foolish to position Bloom as the baseball-ops president in waiting, which means keeping Mozeliak at the top of the leadership structure for another season.

4. If DeWitt wants to lose more customers and revenue, if he wants to alienate and anger more fans, if he wants to damage his own business, if he wants to see more empty seats in 2025, if he wants to give wary consumers a reason to stay away from Busch Stadium, if he wants to keep the Cardinals stuck in the mediocre, major–league middle … well, keeping Mozeliak in place as the president of baseball ops for another season would do all of that. But why in the world would DeWitt want to do that?

5. The only thing I can think of is the possibility of DeWitt selling the franchise. The DeWitt family is adamant in their denials about handing the Cardinals over to a wealthy buyer, and for now I have no reason to believe a sale is on the table for the near future. Hypothetically speaking, if the Cardinals were on the market, it would make sense for DeWitt to leave such a critical decision – installing a new president of baseball ops – to new ownership.

6. And then there’s Bloom, who hasn’t spoken to the media about anything. I’m not criticizing him for that. I’m just underlining an important point here: there’s an assumption that he would take the job, and Mozeliak’s office, as the new director of baseball operations. But we can’t say, with certainty, that Bloom has already made a decision. That’s because we can’t assume, beyond doubt, that we know exactly what DeWitt has planned.

7. That said, Bloom has spent many months of his life since the end of the 2023 season doing important and extensive work at the request of the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s been conducting a complete audit of every aspect of the Cards’ baseball enterprise. It’s laborious work, which requires full attention and effort. So why would Bloom do all of that, only to walk away? It doesn’t make sense. There’s one way it would make sense: if this was the plan all along … that Bloom was hired to do the auditing job, and nothing else. I find that hard to believe.

8. If DeWitt thinks so highly of the respected Bloom that he’s entrusted Bloom to develop a comprehensive plan to revitalize the Cardinals – then why suddenly pivot and empower Mozeliak to implement the changes? The fans would go bananas. It would be a public-relations disaster.

9. And why would DeWitt thank Bloom for his service, promise to take a look at Bloom’s findings, and then go out and hand the top baseball job to someone from the outside? Bloom is in position to know more — much, much more — than a new recruit from the outside. And Chaim can get to work on the project right away.

10. If DeWitt isn’t planning to promote Bloom to execute the all-encompassing plans that he (Bloom) came up with, the decision would be foolish. Bringing in an outside executive is illogical for at least two reasons: (A) the new executive may not agree with Bloom’s recommendations and would want to come up with his own plan; and (B) that would mean a second research cycle to redo the work that Bloom already has completed. And the rebuilding of the Cardinals’ baseball infrastructure would be delayed for no good reason. It’s time for action.

11. Unless Bloom declines an offer extended by DeWitt to become the No. 1 baseball guy, I can’t see any reason to dawdle and hem and haw instead of making the necessary move to install Bloom in the top job at the conclusion of the 2024 season.

12. If Bloom wants this gig – and for now I’ll assume that’s the case – then we can also assume some other things: Bloom already is in the process of planning new hires, and lining up a management team to help him with the “Save the Cardinals” project. And that’s important. The sooner the changes are made, the sooner the Cardinals can get started on the hard work that must be done. After putting off this project for too many years, the Cardinals have a plethora of decisions to make. It is a time for urgency.

13. What about Cardinals manager Oli Marmol? Per terms of his contract extension, Marmol’s deal runs through the end of the 2026 season. But if DeWitt is all in on a complete overhaul, the money owed to Marmol is a minor consideration. Accordingly, the person that DeWitt selects to lead baseball ops should have the freedom to choose his own manager.

14. Here’s why Bloom is a good fit for DeWitt’s baseball operation: his profile matches DeWitt’s philosophy, and that’s important. DeWitt’s philosophy led to the hiring of Jeff Luhnow in 2003. Luhnow had no background in baseball but he was a brilliant analyst who successfully developed the kind of payroll-efficient model that DeWitt wanted.

15. And no, this didn’t mean that DeWitt was cheap. It meant that DeWitt wanted a more advanced scouting and draft operation and a thriving player-development system. Having abundant homegrown players – and their lower-cost contracts – made it possible for the Cardinals to spend money on established players who came with large salaries. This formula worked exceptionally well for the Cardinals.

DeWitt would like to go back there – as he should. After firing GM Walt Jocketty – to end the feud with Luhnow – DeWitt looked outside the organization for his next baseball leader. The job was offered to Chris Antonetti, the second in command with Cleveland. Antonetti chose to stay with Cleveland after being promised the top job when top baseball exec Mark Shapiro moved on.

(DeWitt promoted Mozeliak to the job held by the departed Jocketty. And one of Mozeliak’s greatest achievements was uniting the baseball operation and getting everyone working together after the Jocketty vs. Luhnow war.)

True to their word, Cleveland promoted Antonetti when the time came, and he’s still calling the shots for the Guardians. In 2016, Antonetti’s team made it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before losing to the Cubs and did it with a payroll ranked at No. 23 among the 30 teams. Assuming the Guardians make the playoffs this season, it will be their sixth trip to the postseason in the last nine years. And their average payroll ranking for the six teams was No. 22.

The Cleveland franchise has specialized in winning through payroll efficiency – with an exceptional draft-development operation. The Guardians are also adept and identifying and signing international prospects.

Bloom became a significant part of Tampa Bay’s baseball operation in 2011. He moved up the organizational ladder and succeeded Andrew Friedman (who now runs the Dodgers) in 2014. Bloom’s last season with the Rays was 2019. In Bloom’s time as a key front-office operative, the Rays won 90+ games five times. Tampa Bay – amazingly – won 96 games in 2019 despite having the smallest payroll in the majors. And the roster mostly assembled by Bloom won the American League pennant in 2020.

During Bloom’s 12-season occupancy in Tampa Bay’s front office, the Rays won two AL pennants, racked up 90+ wins seven times, competed in 36 postseason games, had the fifth-best winning percentage in the majors, and had the No. 3 ERA in MLB. The Rays dramatically outperformed a payroll investment that usually ranked in the bottom five of the majors.

Bloom also matches up with the Cardinals because of his acumen at identifying pitching talent and finding ways to make individual pitchers better. From 2011 through 2019, the Rays had had the fourth–best ERA in the majors and finished seventh in winning percentage. And all of that happened when Tampa Bay ranked between 28th and 30th in payroll in eight of nine seasons. They were 25th the other time. Imagine what Bloom could do when equipped with a much larger payroll.

Bloom authored the “Rays Way” player development handbook in 2008 and was heralded for his ability to size up pitchers. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci wrote this: “No franchise understands better how to identify, develop and maintain quality pitchers.”

(It didn’t work out for Bloom in Boston, and he made some mistakes as the baseball boss, but his firing was lot more about a wishy-washy Red Sox ownership group that vacillated between trying to win “now” and significantly lowering the payroll and reordering the player-development system. That’s another column for another time.)

Let’s get back to DeWitt and Bloom. Just follow the clues.

* DeWitt wants a specific model.

* DeWitt hired Luhnow.

* DeWitt offered the top baseball role to Antonetti.

* DeWitt can now offer the top baseball job to Bloom.

All of these things are related. All three men have backgrounds that specialize in strong drafting and developing, an eye for pitching talent, and generating an efficient payroll model as a foundation for success. And those qualities are extremely important to DeWitt.

You don’t have to do any detective work to understand why Bloom was brought in here to analyze the Cardinals’ strengths and weaknesses and suggest major changes. And you don’t have to work for the CIA to understand why Bloom would be DeWitt’s No. 1 option to succeed Mozeliak.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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