Bernie’s Redbird Review: Expect The Cardinals To Take A Pragmatic Approach To The MLB Trade Deadline.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

(Please note: This column was about 90 percent written when the word came down about the Cardinals making a three-team deal that would send Tommy Edman to the Dodgers. In return, the Cardinals will receive starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham. Welcome home, T-Pham! I didn’t want to trash this column because it addressed several issues that covered the likely front-office approach over the final 24+ hours before Tuesday’s 5 p.m. trade deadline. My opinions on that are still relevant, so please read it in that context … and I’ll be back with another column on the trade. Thanks) 

The Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead and needed a walk-off home run by Paul Goldschmidt to save the afternoon, but the Cardinals wriggled out of a potential sweep by the Nationals with a 4-3 victory on Sunday afternoon. It was a satisfactory response to losing the first two games of the series in dreadful fashion. The Redbirds still lost the series, so hold your confetti … but losing two of three games is preferable to losing all three.

That said, where is this team right now?

Factually? The Cardinals are still 6.0 games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. But the second-place Cards have lost time, letting two weeks elapse without gaining ground. Even though Milwaukee is 7-7 in the last 14 games, the Cardinals failed to take advantage by swerving to a 6-9 mark in their last 15 contests. And they slipped in the division standings, going from 4 and ½ games out of first to six games back. The Cardinals are down to 57 games remaining on their schedule. They simply cannot afford to squander the opportunities that materialize over two-week blocks of time. As of Monday morning St. Louis has an 11.8 percent crack of winning the NL Central according to the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs.

The wild-card competition is jammed. At least for now, the Cardinals have drifted out of the top three available wild-card spots. They go into the new week trailing the No. 3 Mets by 1 and ½ games and are one game behind the next contender in line (Diamondbacks.) Unlike the division, this isn’t about St. Louis having to catch up to the first-place team. In this bumper-car game, the Cardinals have wild-card competitors pressuring them on all sides.

The FanGraphs Playoff Odds for clinching a wild card slot is reflected in this list of current probabilities:

Braves, 73.2%
Padres, 55.6%
D-backs, 46%
Mets, 43.8%
Giants, 20%
Cardinals, 17.7%
Pirates, 8.8%

The Cardinals are spinning their wheels with a 14-14 record since June 26. That stretch includes a 3-6 record in their last nine games at Busch Stadium.

After leveling out for a time, the team’s run differential has turned ugly again. The Cardinals have been outscored by 18 runs in their 14-14 stretch – and have a minus 17 run differential in their last nine home games.

So …

What should the front office do?

Thoughts, opinions, questions, pushbacks, approvals, et cetera …

1. Is this team worthy of a major roster transfusion? That would mean trading elite prospects and young veterans to acquire the talent that could transform the Cardinals into a team that has a realistic chance for postseason success? Trading for one impact guy wouldn’t put the Cardinals in the same tier as the top teams in the National League. There would have to be multiple moves – bold moves – and even then I’m not sure where that would put the Cardinals in the overall hierarchy. The Cardinals need at least three difference-making pieces to go from being an average team to a very good one. In no particular order: starting pitcher, high-leverage reliever, right-handed bat.

2. To make something like that happen – and we’re talking hypotheticals here – is John Mozeliak willing to pay the going price?  I’m talking about top pitching prospects Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews. And/or giving up on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman? Given how this ownership–management regime traditionally operates, that’s highly unlikely. That leaves us with the obvious question: among the players/prospects the Cardinals are willing to trade, how could they procure multiple, high-impact additions?

3. Such an answer does not include Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson or Ryan Helsley. Let’s take them one at a time, and also include another name that’s zoomed into prominence in the trade speculation: Tommy Edman.

– If the Cardinals are determined to just make it to the 2024 postseason, Goldy is staying. But … but … but … he’s having a bad year! Yeah, we know. But don’t you think the other 29 teams know that as well? He’s just about 37. He’s having his career-worst season. He’s a free agent after this season. For all of you “Get Something For Goldy!” folks out there – what in the heck do you expect in a trade return that would make the Cardinals a better team minus Goldy? He’s a highly respected leader on the team, still an important part of the team, and the Cardinals aren’t going to give him away. And he also has a no-trade clause. Have you seen the trade-market exchange rate for relievers? Starting pitchers? Bats? The prices are soaring. Again, the Cardinals won’t be trading Goldschmidt … but even if they were willing, and if he agreed, the return would be minimal.

– Arenado? He’s 33 going on 36, has a career-worst slugging percentage, ranks 88th in the majors with 14 home runs, and his OPS+ is below league average offensively. Starting next season, Arenado is owed $52 million guaranteed through 2027. Are you aware of any insane, totally cuckoo general manager out there who wants to inherit that combination of declining hitter + big contract?

– Dylan Carlson? Only if an opportunistic GM knows that the Cardinals are poor at evaluating outfielders and would try to buy Carlson low as a lottery ticket. A no-risk gamble. Which also means not giving the Cardinals anything than a case of sunflower seeds and a middling prospect.

– Helsley? He can’t become a free agent until 2026 and would attract a nice trade package. But if the Cardinals are determined to return to the postseason in 2024, it’s mandatory to have Helsley closing out games. There’s no way they move him.

– Edman? According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Dodgers and Yankees have interest in Edman and his super-utility attributes. But he’s coming off wrist surgery and a sprained ankle, hasn’t played in the majors this season, comes with at least some risk, and is in line to make $9.4 million guaranteed in 2025. Sure, the Cardinals should listen to offers for Edman. I don’t think they’d sell at a sharply discounted price. So what would Edman command in a trade? We don’t know. But the club’s willingness to trade Edman comes down to the quality of the offer. If healthy Edman can help the Cardinals – but isn’t as valuable as before. That’s because of the emergence of shortstop Masyn Winn, the ability of Brendan Donovan to play multiple positions, and the elite defensive skill of center fielder Michael Siani. The switch-hitting Edman gets banged around a lot, is a below-average hitter vs. right-handed pitching, and wasn’t (in 2023) as successful against lefty pitchers as we’ve seen in the past. He makes sense as a trade piece.

– Trade Jordan Walker? The Cardinals are scared of doing this for a few reasons. One, he had 16 homers, a .342 onbase percentage and a .445 slug in 117 games during his 2023 rookie campaign. The talent is there. Two, even though Walker’s offense went to pieces this season and led to his demotion to Triple A Memphis, he’s still only 22 years old. Three, if the Cardinals had an urge to trade Walker, his value would be low relative to how he was viewed within the game last year. And what is the point of selling low? Finally: the Cardinals have traded or discarded the wrong outfielder so many times, it must be terrifying for Mozeliak to think of dealing Walker and watching him turn into a dynamic, long-term All-Star elsewhere.

– Gorman? Yes, it’s tempting to think about trading him. Since the beginning of August 2023, 158 major-league hitters have made at least 450 plate appearances. And among the 158, Gorman ranks 157th in strikeout rate (37.7%), 154th in batting average (.207), 142nd in onbase percentage (.142), and 97th in slugging (.416.) His 24 homers over that time are tied for 42nd. Though the strikeout epidemic is still a problem, Gorman has made some progress this month, batting .279 with a .508 slug. Even in a down season (to date), he has 19 home runs and is slugging .440 vs. right-handed pitchers. Gorman turned 24 on May 10. No one in the St. Louis organization has his power. If the Cardinals trade Gorman to a team that has a more hitter-friendly home ballpark, it’s hardly a stretch of the imagination to see him go bonkers and put up massive power numbers for his new team. If that happened, the Cardinals would never hear the end of it.

– I would listen to any offers that come along for Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals have no idea what they’re doing with him, and they’re deflating his trade value. I wouldn’t sell low … but the Cardinals could actually lower his value because of hiw they use him. It depends on the offer, but Libby is not an off-limits talent.

– In some areas of the interwebs, I see the lunatic-fringe element of the fan base urging the Cardinals to trade Willson Contreras. Hey, let’s get crazy. This team has a mediocre (at best) offense. In terms of offensive production, Goldy is down, Arenado is down, Gorman is down, Nootbaar is down, Walker isn’t around, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan may be cooling down, and there’s no help from Carlson. So yeah, by all means, trade Contreras. What a fantastic idea! A team that’s trying to make the playoffs should move their best hitter who is punishing pitchers at a rate of 55 percent above league average offensively this season per OPS+. No one on this team is close to matching that. He’s also a fiery competitor, has improved his catching fundamentals behind the plate, and has emerged as a leader and a fan favorite. Now, I could see STL trading a catcher. The Cardinals have a surplus in their system. With Pedro Pages emerging as the clear No. 2, Ivan Herrera should be available.

What do I expect? The Cardinals will make a move or two that won’t undermine their team outlook for 2025, 2026, etc. (Especially on the pitching front.) These moves will strengthen their postseason bid at a time when other NL contenders have gotten the jump on the Cardinals by already adding added pieces for the playoff push.

I don’t see the Cardinals as an “all in” team at this deadline. They’ll make a pragmatic move (or two) that helps the team right now – but without harming the future in a significant way. Historically, they prefer to add pitchers/players that can be with them for longer than a two-month rental. This is how the Cardinals prefer to do business.

Hey, this just in …

As I finish this column, the indefatigable Ken Rosenthal posted this on X about 20 minutes ago: “A three-team trade in which the Cardinals would acquire (starting pitcher) Erick Fedde, the Dodgers would acquire Tommy Edman and the White Sox would acquire prospects is close.” Evidently, Tommy Pham would be part of the deal. (I like that!)

I’ll be back to write about this, separately, if the deal becomes official … which seems inevitable. Fedde would be a good addition because he’s a solid, cost-controlled starter that’s under contract through 2025. Pham’s right-handed swing still has some voltage against left-handed pitching

More later.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

– A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.