Bernie’s Redbird Review: Goldschmidt’s Future And Other Look-Ahead Matters Facing The Cardinals in September.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

After getting socked and bopped 9-3 by the Brewers on Monday, the Cardinals now have a 1.0 percent chance to qualify for the postseason.

The Cards are 5 and ½ games out of the third wild-card spot with three teams ahead of them and only 24 games left to play.

Listen, I’m not wasting your time by talking about STL’s playoff hopes. The only reason I mentioned the playoff odds and the standings math is to set up what comes in this little ol’ writing exercise.

The Cardinals (69-69) can continue to believe in the fantasy of playing postseason baseball. They can continue to preach about competing hard until the end. They can continue to spit the usual cliches about how they’re not out of the race until they’re officially eliminated and yada, yada, yada.

That’s all fine with me. If the fellers successfully weave a dream and manufacture a 1964 miracle to make a landing into playoffs, I shall be humbled.

Now that the Cardinals are into September, I’ll serve up another quote from spoken-word artist Henry Rollins: “We know that in September, we will wander through the warm winds of summer’s wreckage. We will welcome summer’s ghost.”

Sounds about right. And Rollins ain’t even a Cardinals fan.

Anyhow …

Here’s what interests me the most about the Cardinals’ closing stretch of 2024. These aren’t rankings based on importance. I’m just randomly going through them. Let’s go with nine:

1. Goldy gone? The proud and highly professional first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, turns 37 a week from today. This season he has career lows in batting average, onbase percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. His St. Louis contract expires after the season. I anticipate that the Cardinals will move on – but will they? Goldschmidt’s metrics are strong. He ranks among the top eight percent of major-league hitters in hard-hit rate, and is in the top 16 percent in average exit velocity, and the top 30 percent in barrel rate.

Based on the quality of his contact, Goldschmidt’s slugging percentage should be .446. There’s still voltage in that bat. His deteriorating plate discipline is a significant factor in his reduced numbers. In short, Goldy takes too many called strikes, and hacks at too many pitches. That’s caused his strikeout rate to soar, and his walk rate to deflate, and leaves him with a sad little .288 onbase percentage.

That said, things are changing and Goldschmidt is making a charge. I’ll write about this on Wednesday, but since the start of July his offensive performance is impressive. He’s giving the Cardinals something to think about.

If Cardinals management is still undecided on what to do after the season – to bring him back for 2025 on a one-year deal, for example – could their decision be influenced by his recent hitting surge? In his last 21 games through Monday, Goldschmidt has a .329 average, .377 OBP and .557 slug. Of course, Goldy may have his own ideas about where he would like to play in 2025, and he should have several options.

2. Is there a platoon in the future? Back to first base. I don’t know what the Cardinals will choose to do if they part ways with Goldschmidt. How could anyone know until we see what ownership plans to do about overhauling the front office operation? But if they stay in house, the makings of a platoon are in place. Alec Burleson plays solid first-base defense. Batting from the left side, Burly is hitting .305 with a .506 slugging percentage and 18 homers against right-handed pitchers. But the big man is terrible against left-handed pitching.

That’s where Luken Baker possibly fits in. He has a power-packed right-handed swing, has an outstanding walk rate, and is violent in his damage against lefty pitchers. This season at Triple A Memphis, Baker slugged .736 against lefthanders and had a .407 OBP.

Small sample and all of that, but since being promoted to the big club, Baker is 2 for 5 against lefties, and both hits were home runs. He’s walked three times. (Always getting on base.) At Memphis he had a walk rate of around 17 percent vs. LHP, and that’s exceptional. If the Cardinals want to test drive this platoon, this is the month. Goldschmidt can take most of his at-bats at DH. Baker has calmed down at the plate (compared to last year) and he’s making pitchers throw strikes. The elevated walk rate is evidence of that. But we need to see more of Baker before writing him in for a potential platoon with Burleson.

Jordan Walker could enter the discussion in the near future (2025.) If the Cardinals decide to take a look at him as a first baseman next season. But he’s never played the position. And we saw what happened when the Cardinals decided to use Walker at the unfamiliar position in right field. Is it smart to put him in another uncomfortable position? Playing first base isn’t easy.

3. What’s up in center field? For now, it’s Victor Scott or Michael Siani. Manager Oli Marmol covets Siani’s excellent range and all-around excellence in center field. That’s understandable. Despite missing a month with an oblique strain, Siani still ranks third among MLB center fielders in Outs Above Average. His range is fantastic; Statcast rates him above average in every direction a ball is hit. Shallow or deep, left or right … you don’t get much by him. And before his injury, Siani was batting .400 with a robust .880 OPS in 14 games since the All-Star break. And we can go back in time and note Siani’s .313 average and .352 onbase percentage in his last 42 games. The other thing about Siani? The Cardinals have a record of 43-36 when he starts in center.

In a more ideal set-up, Siani (who bats left) would be paired with a good center fielder who bats from the right side. That isn’t on the table, and Scott swings left-handed. The rookie has improved offensively and has a .290 average and a .815 OPS in his last 12 games.

Scott has a future in center field but needs to make better jumps when tracking balls in the air. He makes too many first-step, wrong-step reactions. But coach Willie McGee will fix that. Scott couldn’t ask for a more astute outfield coach than McGee.

Speaking of McGee … think about all of the superb center fielders the Cardinals have deployed through the decades Terry Moore in the 1940s, Wally Moon in the 1950s, Curt Flood in the 1960s, Bake McBride in the 1970s, McGee in the 1980s, Ray Lankford in the 1990s, and Jim Edmonds in the aughts.

That center-field position has evolved into a jumble. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Cardinals have used seven players that made at least 145 plate appearances as center fielders. Roll call: Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Siani, and Scott.

(Side note: It sure was fun to watch Rick Ankiel play center. And much respect to Jon Jay.)

4. Nolan Gorman: Will the Cardinals bring him back? Gorman struck out three times in his first game for Triple A Memphis after being demoted. But in his last eight games, Gorman has a .516 slugging percentage, .830 OPS, two doubles, two homers and six RBIs.

The good news, so far: Gorman has a strikeout rate of only 14 percent in his last eight games. During his stay in Memphis, the left-handed slugger is still taking too many called strikes – but I attribute that to Gorman trying to settle down instead of jumping at everything.

Here’s an indication of progress: this season with the Cardinals, Gorman swung at 30 percent of the pitches thrown out of the strike zone. In the early days of his minor-league hitting rehabilitation, Gorman has swung at 20 percent of the pitches out of the strike zone. He’s being more selective.

And when Gorman swings at a strike and puts the ball in play, Gorman is batting .286 with a .571 slug for Memphis.

5. What will become of Andre Pallante? Even though the right-hander had a dud of a start Monday at Milwaukee, it appears that he will stay in the rotation. And that’s the obvious decision. Pallante moved into the rotation on May 29 and has the team’s finest starter ERA (3.80) over that time. And Pallante has pitched to a 3.48 ERA in his last 11 starts.

I still don’t trust the Cardinals here. Steven Matz is back from the IL and is starting Tuesday’s game against the Brewers. Lance Lynn will likely return from the IL next week, and at that point the Cardinals will have seven starters: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Pallante, Matz and Lynn. Matz can be stashed in the bullpen, but what if he pitches well in Milwaukee? Would Lynn go to the bullpen instead?

Even if the Cardinals relocate one of the veterans in the bullpen – and I doubt they’d do that with Lynn – they’d still have six starters. Maybe they’ll use six starters; with the zany Cardinals, who knows? Pallante has experience in the bullpen, and it’s easier for the Cardinals to put him there – no matter what they’re spinning to reporters right now.

It’s easy to say “drop Mikolas” from the rotation because of his awful ERA over the last two seasons. But the Cardinals won’t do that. Payroll politics always win out with this organization, and it doesn’t matter how poorly a dude pitches, he’ll keep his job because the Cardinals are paying him a lot of money.

Come to think of it, if the Cardinals bring back Mikolas and Matz for the final year of both of their contracts, they team will pay them a guaranteed $29.5 million combined in 2025.

6. Is there logic in starting Matz? Well, maybe so. If he pitches well down the stretch and avoids injury (good luck), there could be some trade interest in the lefty as a one-year gamble for 2025. Then again, Matz could hurt something else, go back to the IL, and lower his trade value to … nothing.

7. Where does Michael McGreevy fit? Will the Cardinals promote the former first–round draft choice to take another look at him? McGreevy crafted a gem of a start in his major-league debut, on July 31, holding the Rangers to five hits, one walk and one run in seven excellent innings. His sterling performance was the highlight of a 10-1 victory.

This was a one-off start for McGreevy, but he’s continued to impress with a 2.83 ERA in five starts since returning to Memphis. You’d think the Cardinals would be motivated to give McGreevy another opportunity. After all, the Cards rank 26th in the majors with a 5.04 starting-pitching ERA since the start of July. But using McGreevy at the expense of an experienced veteran is not how the Cardinals handle these matters.

Nope. They’ll stick with a collection of mediocre starters instead of showing confidence in a dude they liked so much they drafted 18th overall in 2021 – choosing McGreevy instead of others chosen later by other teams. That list includes Jackson Merrill (oh, dear), James Wood, Andrew Abbott, Mason Miller, Robert Gasser and Bryce Miller.

8. What about Quinn Mathews? Will the emerging phenom pitching prospect Quinn Mathews get a major-league showcase this month? Probably not. He began the year at the low Class A level and has graduated up the ladder to Triple A. He’s very impressive. But Mathews has made only one start for Memphis, and it does make sense to let him be. (I’ll also note the Cardinals didn’t feel that way about Michael Wacha in 2013.)

9. Ivan Herrera should catch more. This is not a slap at Pedro Pages, who is very good defensively. But it’s important for Herrera to get as much big-league experience as he can to polish his receiving skills. Herrera can hit; he’s batted .281 with a .343 OBP this season. And though his early-season power has dropped off, his .380 slug is not that far off from Nolan Arenado’s .394.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.