THE REDBIRD REVIEW
WONDERFUL WEEKEND: The baseball mood around our municipality was certainly brightened by a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. As recently as last Thursday the Cardinals were last in the NL Central with an 8-10 record. And now? The Cardinals are on the right side of .500 at 11-10. And the Reds — the blustery team that occupied first place in the for 14 days — departed St. Louis in last-place … and with a series at the Los Angeles Dodgers next up. The Reds have lost 11 of their last 14 including seven in a row. The whole Baddies of Baseball thing doesn’t play so well when your team is wheezing and perspiring. The Big Red Machine II has to give the name back after scoring six total runs and batting .170 with 28 strikeouts in three days at Busch Stadium.
THE BIG LINEUP SWITCH: It took a while, but manager Mike Shildt finally recognized the value of batting Dylan Carlson in the No. 2 lineup spot. Carlson has the skill set: draws walks, can hit for average, gets on base at a high rate, is a power threat, has good speed, switch hits.
By batting Paul Goldschmidt second, Shildt had unintentionally put a limit on Goldy’s RBI opportunities. Simply put, Goldy wasn’t getting many at-bats with runners in scoring position. And that was absolutely reflected by Goldschmidt’s low RBI total (7) over his first 17 games. The same could be said of Nolan Arenado as the No. 3 hitter. NA had more RBI shots than Goldy — but not as many as he should have.
By inserting Carlson behind leadoff hitter Tommy Edman, Shildt enhanced the probability of having more runners on base for Goldschmidt at No. 3 and Arenado at No. 4.
Until Carlson entered into a set-up role as the No. 2 hitter in Friday’s series-opener against the Reds, Goldschmidt was starving for RBI opps. Through the end of last week’s series at Washington, Goldschmidt had only 10 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season.
Ten! The same amount as Matt Carpenter, and fewer than Austin Dean (12) and Justin Williams (12.) Yadier Molina also had more PA (12) with runners in position to score that Goldschmidt — but that’s fine, because Yadier was hitting well.
With Carlson inexplicably hitting 7th in the lineup and getting on base at a healthy rate, guys like Dean and Williams were presented with more RBI shots. Combined, Dean and Williams drove in Carlson five times. With Carlson hitting seventh, Goldschmidt had knocked in Carlson only one time through last Wednesday. Goldy hardly had any chances to do so.
Before the start of the Reds series at Busch, 238 MLB hitters had more plate appearances with RISP than Paul Goldschmidt. And you wonder why the Cardinals were struggling to consistently score runs?
So, what happened over the weekend?
–Carlson reached base eight times in his 12 plate appearances, getting seven hits and drawing a walk. He scored twice, drove in a run and gave the Cardinals more at-bats with runners on base — even if that wasn’t directly evidenced by his runs scored and run driven in.
–At leadoff Edman reached base only three times in the series, but still scored three runs. That’s because he had Carlson, Goldy and Arenado hitting after him.
–Remember how I mentioned that Goldschmidt had only 10 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season before the weekend series vs. the Reds? Well, in the three wins over the Reds, Goldy had five PA with runners in scoring position and drove in four runs.
That’s right. In one weekend series, Goldschmidt increased his RISP opportunities on the season by 50 percent, going from 10 to 15. And he increased his season RBI total from seven to 11.
–Arenado came up seven times with RISP and had two hits that delivered two RBIs. The Cardinals scored only 12 runs in the three games, but six were driven in by Goldschmidt and Arenado from their new spots in the revised lineup. And Edman and Carlson scored five of the 12 runs.
The lineup change paid off.
And it should continue to pay off.
HEY, HERE’S A SCOP: DYLAN CARLSON IS GOOD: In 66 plate appearances over his last 17 games the rookie outfielder is batting .351 with a .439 OBP and .596 slugging percentage. Among 84 MLB hitters that have at least 66 PA over that time, Carlson ranks fifth in batting average and OBP, eighth in OPS, and 10th in slugging. His .184 wRC+ ranks ninth; that figure means he’s performed 84 percent above league average offensively in park-adjusted runs created since April 6/
For the season Carlson’s OBP is up to .407 which ranks fifth among NL hitters with a minimum of 80 plate appearances. His .966 OPS ranks 11th in the NL (minimum 80 PA.)
TRACKING THE OUTFIELD: Welcome back, Tyler O’Neill. He boomed two solo homers Sunday in his first start since coming off the Injured List. As a group Cardinals outfielders continue to move up the MLB rankings offensively.
Entering the new week the STL outfield ranked fourth in OBP (.432), 6th in OPS (.752), tied for fifth in homers (10), and tied for 6th in RBI (32.) They’re also 13th in OBP.
After 21 games the Cards outfield has a higher OPS than than 24 teams including the NY Yankees, LA Dodgers, San Diego, Boston, Minnesota, Chicago White Sox and other highly regarded outfield entities.
Surprised? Me too.
STARTING PITCHING, STARTING OVER: Through the first 15 games on the calendar the Cardinals had the worst rotation ERA (6.24) in the majors, with the starters averaging only 4.4 innings per assignment. But in the last six games the rotation ERA is 1.43, and the starters have cranked out 6.2 innings per game. After one quality start in the first 15 games, the Cards have posted five QS in their last six. Jack Flaherty (two starts), Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, K.K. Kim and John Gant certainly have taken turns for the better. Over the last six starts the rotation has the lowest ERA in the majors.
A DEEPER DIVE: Now that we’ve stated the obvious and provided the basics, let’s dig into the important trends. I’ll list it in “before” and “after” style, with the performance of the first 15 games on the left, and the last six games on the right. Numbers courtesy of FanGraphs.
Opponent batting average: .282 … .193
Groundball-rate: 38% … 47.5%
Opponent slugging pct: .459 … .311
HR per 9 innings: 1.22 … 0.72
1st-pitch strike percentage: 54% … 56.3%
Strike-zone percentage: 40.1% … 46.4%
Walk rate: 10.3% … 4.2%
Opponent OBP: .374 … .236
Strikeout rate: 19.3% … 25.7%
Strikeout-walk ratio: 1.8 … 6.2
Around two weeks ago, I began hollering about the first-strike percentage, overall strike-zone percentage, low strikeout rate, high walk rate and shortage of ground balls. All of those areas are improving, and we can see the obvious difference in the bottom-line performance. Funny what happens when you throw strikes, get ahead on the count, register more strikeouts and fewer walks, get bushels of ground balls, and remove much of the slugging from the sluggers?
This is the part where I’m supposed to say something like “but this is only a six-game stretch, and this is a long season, so let’s see if the trend holds.” Yes. But the shift to good starting pitching has provided comfort for a worried citizenry.
THERE’S ALWAYS SOMETHING: After the walk-fests on Friday night and Sunday afternoon, the Cardinal bullpen has the second-worst walk rate (14.5%) in the majors. Seven St. Louis relievers have walk rates that have soared into double digits, with the highest belonging to Jordan Hicks (24.3%) and Alex Reyes (23.3%). Knock it off, fellas. Stay away from that burning ring of fire.
NEXT ON THE SKED: The Phillies (10-11) are in town to play a four-game set with the Cardinals (11-10.) The Phillies have gone 2-4 after winning two of three games from visiting St. Louis in the recent weekend series. The pitching matchup for Monday’s 6:45 pm game (STL time) pits Zack Wheeler (3.80 ERA) against Adam Wainwright (5.03.) Wainwright has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. In 169 career starts at Busch Stadium Waino has an ERA of 2.87. And his home ERA is 2.82 in 24 starts over the last two-plus seasons.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Please check out Bernie’s sports-talk show on 590-AM The Fan, KFNS. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen live online and download the Bernie Show podcast at 590thefan.com … the 590 app works great and is available in your preferred app store.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
