THE REDBIRD REVIEW
It gives me no pleasure to write this, but Lance Lynn has become a liability for the Cardinals. His 2024 season has turned negative. There’s no way to get around this, even if I wanted to finesse the numbers to make everything look nicer. I just go where the numbers lead me, and with Lynn the factual evidence is harsh and convincing.
The Cardinals lost a 9-8 game to the Marlins in 10 innings Tuesday. And while most of the post-game media emphasis was placed on reliever Chris Roycroft’s inability to hold a 7-6 lead in the 10th, the Cardinals fell to the 24-49 Marlins because of Lynn’s glaring failure to take advantage of generous run support and protect leads.
Lynn had a 2-0 lead before he threw a pitch and gave up three runs in the bottom of the first inning.
The Cardinals reclaimed the lead (4-3) in the top of the second and Lynn promptly gave it up by allowing a run when the Marlins took their turn in the bottom of the inning.
The Cardinals kept attacking and opened a 6-4 lead in the third, and a 7-4 advantage in the fifth. But Lynn wilted again, yielding two more runs including a solo homer in the sixth by Miami’s No. 9 hitter, Christian Bethancourt. That blow powered the Marlins to within one run of the Cardinals (7-6) and Lynn was pulled.
Lynn lasted 5 and ⅓ innings. He was truncheoned for 10 hits and six runs (five earned.) The Marlins blasted two homers and a double. Lynn struck out only five of 27 batters faced for a poor 18.5 strikeout rate.
Via Statcast, Lynn was cannonaded for a shockingly high hard-hit rate of 63.6 percent. That was the highest hard-hit percentage against him – by 10 points – in a start this season.
Let’s dig deeper into this …
1. The recent trends are discouraging. Lynn has a 5.08 ERA in his last nine starts, averaging 4.5 innings in the assignments. This stretch includes a 7.90 ERA in his three most recent outings.
2. Lynn’s four-seam fastball is a good pitch for him this season as validated by Statcast’s +10 run-value rating. But all other pitches that he’s used – cutter, sinker, slider, changeup and sweeper – have an aggregate negative run value of minus 17.
3. Lynn’s limited endurance is a substantial problem. He’s averaged only 5 innings per start. He’s gone fewer than six innings in 12 of 15 starts. He’s lasted less than five innings six times.
4. When Lynn runs out of gas, it happens quickly and doesn’t take long. In the first four innings of his 15 starts this season, Lynn has pitched to a 2.85 ERA. And he’s kept hitters under control with a .232 average, .296 onbase percentage, and .342 slugging percentage. Lynn’s home-run rate in the first four innings of a start is an excellent rate of 0.69 homers per nine innings.
4a. After the fourth inning of his starts, Lynn’s ERA rockets to 9.64. He’s faced 79 batters (total) in the fifth and sixth innings this season and they’ve smashed him for a .353 average, .436 onbase percentage, .632 slug, and a home-run rate of 3.2 allowed per nine innings. Lynn also walked 12.7 percent of the hitters he faced during innings five and six.
5. When Lynn works against hitters in their third time through the lineup this season, they’ve jumped him for a 9.95 ERA, .345 average, .433 OBP and .586 slug.
6. Lynn has only three quality starts this season. Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson collectively have averaged 7.6 quality starts so far in 2024. Lynn’s quality-start rate is 20 percent. Mikolas-Gibson-Gray have combined for a quality-start percentage of 54.7%. Massive difference between the team’s top three starters and Lynn.
In Tuesday’s frustrating loss, manager Oli Marmol tried to stretch Lynn into the sixth inning to account for a short-handed bullpen. But the plan failed. Over the final two-plus innings of Lynn’s start, the Marlins went 5 for 12 and scored two runs. In their last eight plate appearances vs. Lynn, the Marlins went 4 for 8 including Bethancourt’s homer.
Lynn’s short starts and crash landings are a stressor for the manager and an extra burden for the bullpen.
Lefty Matthew Liberatore replaced Lynn two batters into the sixth and proceeded to relinquish the tying run to make it 7-7.
Kyle Leahy and John King were superb over their combined three innings, but the STL hitters failed to take advantage of the opening from the seventh inning through the ninth. And Roycroft couldn’t lock down the team’s one-run lead in the bottom of the 10th.
When the Cardinals score seven runs in the first four innings but can’t put a bad team away, that’s a terrible day for them. This was easily one of their worst losses of the season. Back to .500 again, at 36-36. Lynn wasn’t the only reason why the Cardinals lost, but he was the primary reason why they flunked a chance to go two games above .500. His downfall was paramount in the defeat.
I can’t flatly rule out a rebound by Lynn over the remainder of 2024, but a lot must change for him to make such a bounce-back possible. Lynn had a 25 percent strikeout rate from 2021 through 2023, but that’s down to 21.7% so far this season. And his current swinging-strike rate (10.2%) is a drop from his 12.7% rate over his three previous seasons. The warning signs are there.
ON NOLAN GORMAN: The third-year slugger is going through a brutal stretch. He went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts in Tuesday’s loss. His current slump is alarming – even by Gorman’s standards.
– Since June 5 and through Tuesday, Gorman was 4 for 51 (.078) with a homer and a 39.6 percent strikeout rate.
– In his last seven games through Tuesday, Gorman was 1 for 28 with 15 strikeouts.
– Going into Wednesday’s day game, Gorman’s .201 batting average this season was tied for 144th among the 150 qualifying MLB hitters. His .278 OBP for the campaign was tied for 142nd among the 150 hitters.
– Gorman’s slugging percentage for the season was down to .427 by the end of Tuesday’s game. Last year he slugged a career-best .478. Gorman’s .427 slug ranked 64th through Tuesday among qualifying MLB hitters.
– Entering Wednesday, Gorman’s strikeout rate (36 percent) is the second worst in the majors behind Cincinnati’s Will Benson (39.2%).
– As of Wednesday morning, Gorman was 7 for 54 with runners in scoring position (.130) this season. The total includes one homer and 23 strikeouts with RISP.
BIRD BYTES
* In the first four innings Tuesday the Cardinals went 8 for 21 (.381) with two walks for a .435 onbase percentage. They got a two-run homer from Paul Goldschmidt, solo home runs from Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson, and slugged .857.
* From the fifth inning through the ninth, St. Louis batters went 2 for 17 (.118) with a walk and both hits were singles. They were also 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position from the fifth through the ninth.
* Cardinal hitters went 2 for 19 with a walk and five strikeouts against Miami’s bullpen in Tuesday’s giveaway.
* In the first two games of the series, the Cardinals had seven hits and four walks in 47 plate appearances against Miami relievers. The slash line was .179/.261/.308. Before the series Miami’s 4.26 bullpen ERA ranked 11th in the NL.
* Lynn has a 30 percent strikeout in the first inning this season. After the first inning? A strikeout rate of 19.7 percent. Hmmm. Bullpen.
* Leahy and King were outstanding. In their three combined innings of stellar relief, they faced the minimum number of hitters and struck out four of the nine (44.4%).
* As he goes into Wednesday, Brendan Donovan was hitting .294 with a .321 OBP and .431 slug since June 5. He’s making progress.
* Tuesday’s loss shoved the Cardinals to 6 and ½ games behind first-place Milwaukee. The Cardinals had crept to 5 and ½ games by winning Monday. The Redbirds maintained their No. 2 status (behind Atlanta) in the NL’s loony wild-card derby.
* According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals went into their Wednesday game with a 12.7 percent chance of winning the NL Central. First-place Milwaukee has a 68.4 percent probability of winning the division.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.
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For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Sports Info Solutions, Spotrac and Cot’s Contracts unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.