THE REDBIRD REVIEW

If you’re still wondering why the Cardinals have prioritized the modernization and restoration of the team’s ailing minor-league and player-development system and all of the infrastructure contained it it … Well, I’m happy to provide some insight.

There are three reasons:

1. This project is long overdue and absolutely necessary. The Cardinals still draft good talent, but they must draft more of it. Just as important, the Cards must give their prospects – hitters and pitchers – the tools, the teaching, the modern facilities and the technological advantages – to maximize their preparation before graduating to the majors.

2. It’s important to keep the talent pipeline flowing because talented young players obviously can help the team win a lot – postseason included. Developing enough quality players internally can sustain success. How do I know this? Because I witnessed it after Bill DeWitt Jr. hired Jeff Luhnow to put in a more comprehensive and advanced system for player procurement and development.  Of course there is more that goes into winning; certainly the Cardinals have made some historically prominent trades and free-agent signings.

3. Drafted/developed players can be used as trade commodities to make your team considerably better at a time of need.

That’s another important reason why this franchise ranks second in major-league baseball for most postseason games played, third in most postseason games won, and fourth in regular-season winning percentage since DeWitt purchased the team before the 1996 season.

Of course, the success has waned in recent years because of trades that didn’t pay off, trades that sent better talent to other teams,  and free-agent moves that burned payroll. And the draft/develop operation became weaker.

That is also a significant factor in the demise of the Cardinals as a regular postseason presence … and as a postseason force. And I don’t think there’s a full realization of why it’s so vital for the Cardinals to strengthen their No. 1 source of talent: scouting, drafting and developing young, talented players.

It worked for DeWitt before, and now he’s trying to do it again. I support it because it isn’t a marketing pitch. This really matters.

The Cardinals won’t be spending the vast sums of payroll money to match the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc. That’s why it’s so imperative to draft and create your own, cost-controlled stars that can narrow the gap if you do the job right.

This is the best path to take. It’s the only realistic path to take. Payroll efficiency isn’t a negative; it’s smart and effective and necessary. If you disagree, fine. But that means you also must disagree with the way the Cardinals won — relentlessly — in the past. Because what they did then, they’re trying to do again now.

And maximizing use of payroll dollars can prevent a team — like the Cardinals — from going all willy-nilly and scrambling desperately to come up with too many quick-fix solutions every year. Solutions that are more of a gamble than a lasting plan. But do to that, you need to have a good share of young, talented cost-controlled players. Once those dudes are established, then you have ample payroll space to spend on, or trade for, more expensive talent that can take the team to a higher level.

For the payroll, payroll, payroll, payroll, payroll, payroll obsessives … sorry, but you good people have somehow managed to forget — or perhaps willfully ignore — a substantial reason behind the Cards’ long-term success. Not the only reason. But certainly a meaningful one.

“Development and helping to restructure the minor-league system I think is really fundamental for a team that is looking to win or reach the World Series,” Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras said at the Winter Warm-Up. “If you look at most of the teams that reach the World Series, they have really good depth and homegrown talent. I think the Cardinals are looking forward to that and are happy that they’ve restructured their minor-league system because it was bad. Just being honest.”

Contreras gets it. And as a rookie catcher, he started Game 7 of the 2016 World Series when the Cubs won their first championship since 2008. That team was loaded with draft-and-developed players.

I do not understand why so many people fail to understand what’s going on now, and why ownership-management is finally doing what should have been done several years ago: rebuild the farm-development system. This is how the Cardinals succeeded at a top-tier level for such a long time, before the people in charge of the franchise and baseball operation let it degrade.

It was a terrible mistake. There are no excuses for it … but that doesn’t mean the Cardinals should allow it to continue to erode. Belatedly addressing this in a significant manner is much preferable to ignoring a serious problem.

Said DeWitt, the franchise chairman: “Over the last number of years the investment in developing has really expanded dramatically (around the majors.) To be honest, we were a little behind in that regard. We’ve fixed it. And I think it will pay off for us.”

DeWitt is being honest when he says, “The best way to build a championship club in my view is to have good young players coming through the system …you can’t just spend your way into it. There is a balance there.”

I say DeWitt is being truthful for an obvious reason: because this is one of the prominent ways he raised a sinking franchise 30 years ago. After a time, DeWitt brought in Jeff Luhnow to set up a new way of roster construction. And it worked. So now he’s trying to do it again.

– From 2000 through 2015, the Cards led the National League and were second in the majors with 70 postseason wins. The big-prize collection featured four NL pennants and two World Series titles.

– Also from 2000 through 2015, St. Louis rookie pitchers led the majors with 15 postseason wins and had an impressive 2.99 ERA. STL pitchers aged 24 or younger won 10 postseason games and had a 3.43 ERA.

On the other side …

– From 2016 through 2024, the Cardinals ranked 17th in the majors in both postseason wins (4) and postseason games (15.)

– From 2016 through 2024, rookie Cardinal pitchers had a 5.59 postseason ERA, the worst by a big-league team over those years. St. Louis pitchers no older than 24 had a 4.42 postseason ERA. Those guys did much better during the regular season though, thanks in large part to Jack Flaherty, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Ryan Helsley. But for the most part, the young arms weren’t a positive factor in the postseason, but Flaherty did fine for a while, in 2019.

– What about the young hitters in the postseason? From 2000 through 2015, Cardinals age 24 or younger slugged .442, homered 24 times, and drove in 75 runs in 554 at-bats. Albert Pujols competed in seven of those postseasons and did a ton of damage. But he was a St. Louis draft choice, and the organization gets credit for that. Someone would have to be tremendously dishonest to dismiss the Pujols pick as some kind of dumb luck. If you’re going to rip baseball people for bad drafts and trades and all of that, then you have to praise what they’ve done well … unless, of course, you are so boiling with so much anger that it is impossible for you to make an effort to be fair.

– From 2016 through 2024, Cardinal hitters age 24 or younger collectively batted .205 in the postseason with an anemic .329 slugging percentage and a high strikeout rate. Fifteen games is a small sample, but that’s the nature of the postseason. Better get something done quickly. Hit very well, or pitch very well … or go home.

Those payroll mistakes – combined with regrettable trade results – have pulled the Cardinals down. Having a minor-league, player-development system that can produce more elite hitters and pitchers, supply reserve strength or fill specific roles would make the Cardinals more capable in the regular season and playoffs.

So I’d like to see Chaim Bloom and Rob Cerfolio go back to the future. Back to the player-development success that occurred earlier during the DeWitt regime. But to let things underneath continue to decay and choose (instead) to invest free-agent money in mid-level talent that doesn’t get your team where it should be? That’s insane.

I’m not suggesting that all of the young players drafted and turned out by the Cardinals emerged as stars. Some did, of course. But the good teams usually have lots of quality depth. And a player doesn’t have to be a Hall of Fame caliber talent to make a positive difference. But the impact of some of these rookies and young players is a real thing that mattered in a big way.

Let’s walk through some of the relevant seasons. Keep in mind that GM Walt Jocketty and staff did the drafting from 1995 through 2002. In addition to Pujols and Molina, those early drafts produced Cardinals Hall of Fame pitcher Matt Morris, valuable utility player Skip Schumaker, pitcher Braden Looper, pitcher Rick Ankiel, outfielder J.D. Drew, infielder Adam Kennedy, pitcher Bud Smith, slugger Chris Duncan, pitcher Randy Flores, outfielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Dan Haren, pitcher Chris Narveson and pitcher Kyle McClellan.

And your draft choices don’t have to play for your team forever.

They can be traded off in significant deals that upgrade your club.

  • Looper was the key piece in the trade for shortstop Edgar Renteria.
  • Drew was the key piece in the trade for Adam Wainwright.
  • Kennedy was the key piece in the trade for Jim Edmonds.
  • Bud Smith was an important piece in the trade for Scott Rolen.
  • Coco Crisp was traded for starting pitcher Chuck Finley to reinforce a rotation that was still reeling after the sudden death of Darryl Kile.
  • Narveson was flipped in a trade package for outfielder Larry Walker.
  • Haren was traded for starting pitcher Mark Mulder, who went 16-8 in 2005 before developing shoulder problems that derailed his career.

The Haren flip didn’t work out as well as hoped, but injuries happen. Mulder was very good until his shoulder unraveled.

But other than Haren-Mulder, I assume that you liked these trades, yes? Drafting and developing your own players made those trades possible.

And much later on, drafted-and-developed young Cardinals were part of the deals that brought Matt Holliday, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester to St. Louis.

After being recruited by DeWitt, Luhnow ran his first draft in 2003.

I focused on 2004 through 2015 – the heart of an excellent baseball entity in the regular season and postseason.

Let’s look at some individual teams and the impact of homegrown rookies and young dudes.

2004 and 2005: The Cardinals won 205 games over the two seasons and took the NL pennant in 2004. Jocketty draft choices Pujols and Yadi Molina were gigantic figures, and would remain so for many seasons. But young pitcher Dan Haren was a contributor in those two seasons. The Luhnow draft picks would be coming along. And his first couple of drafts weren’t all that hot. It takes some time to take root.

2006: The first World Series championship for the Cardinals since 1982. Pujols and Molina were the stars of stars. I don’t know if you want to give the Cardinals credit for Adam Wainwright, who was drafted by Atlanta. But Waino finished his minor-league development in the St. Louis system, so the Cardinals deserve at least some praise for that. Wainwright had an epic 2006 postseason as the emergency closer. Two rookie relievers, Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney, were fantastic in the 2006 postseason run, combining to allow just one run in 13 and ⅔ innings. Second-year reliever Brad Thompson crafted a 3.34 ERA in 43 appearances during the regular season. Another rookie, Anthony Reyes, pitched a gem to beat the Tigers in Game 1 of the 2006 World Series. That jolt staggered the Tigers. These young pitchers were hardly along for the ride in 2006. Including Waino, rookie pitchers gave the Cardinals 35 and 1/3 innings in 28 postseason appearances — and collectively sculpted a 1.27 ERA. Randy Flores was the winning pitcher in the Cardinals’ memorable NLCS Game 7 win at Shea Stadium.

That’s not all. Chris Duncan had a very good rookie season 2006. At age 25, he batted .293, slugged .589, and punched up an OPS+ that was 40% above league average offensively. Duncan homered in a 4-2 Game 5 victory over the Mets in the ‘06 NLCS. In Game 1 of the World Series, Duncan’s RBI double in the third broke a 1-1 tie and put the Cardinals in the lead to stay. Dunc was a robust hitter until a neck injury and surgery drained much of his power.

2009: The Cardinals reclaimed the division title with the assistance of rookie center fielder Colby Rasmus, rookie relievers Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs, and second-year reliever Kyle McClellan. And of course Pujols and Molina did their thing. Hey, Pujols, Molina, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright , Ryan Ludwick and Matt Holliday needed some help to grab that division title after the Cardinals had missed making the playoffs for two straight years.

2011: Pujols and Molina got a little help from their friends as the Cardinals won a second World Series over a six-season span. Slugger and all-around RBI monster Allen Craig was a rookie; he batted .315 with a .555 slug and was ridiculously good with runners in scoring position. Craig punished pitchers from the Brewers and Rangers in the 2011 NLCS and World Series. He came up big in World Series Game 7 after Holliday was ruled out with a broken hand. Daniel Descalso was a rookie, and he started the rally in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series, leading off the 10th with a single after the Rangers had taken a 9-7 lead in the top half of the inning. (Jon Jay was up next, and also singled, moving the line along until it could get to Lance Berkman and David Freese.)  A year later, Descalso went 3 for 5 with three RBIs to lead a crazy comeback win in NLDS Game 5 at Washington.

Rasmus was still only 24. (He was traded in late July of that season) … center fielder Jon Jay was in his second MLB season and elevated the Cardinals in a variety of ways after taking over in center… Jaime Garcia, 24, was in his second season as a starting pitcher … Lance Lynn, 24, was a rookie reliever who worked in big sports during the postseason. Motte wasn’t a rookie, and he wasn’t young, but this Luhnow draftee was a first-time closer that got the job done in the 2011 postseason.

The world-champion Cardinals used 14 rookies along the way in 2011 — nine position players and five pitchers.

This is a good time to insert Skip Schumaker into the review.

Schu was drafted in 2001, made his big-league debut as an outfielder in 2005, played 28 games for the 2006 world-champion Cardinals, and served as the starting second baseman from 2009 through 2011. Schumaker had one of the more overlooked big moments in the 2011 postseason, driving in Rafael Furcal with a first inning double off Roy Halladay in NLDS Game 5 at Philadelphia. Schumaker’s RBI gave Chris Carpenter an early 1-0 lead, and the big glaring man made it stand up with a nine-inning shutout that put the Cardinals in the 2011 NLCS against Milwaukee. Just another example of a home-grown Cardinal who was part of the team’s sustained success … and I repeat: players that are drafted and developed don’t have to become All-Star players to be players of real value.

2012: No more Pujols. But look at all of the rookie hitters and pitchers who did what they could to keep the squad strong. Let’s start with the rookie position players: Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and shortstop Pete Kozma. What was so special about Kozma? Well, many have forgotten this, but I didn’t. The Cardinals couldn’t settle on a shortstop that year, and they turned to Kozma late in the season. He played a leading role in getting the Cardinals into the wild-card game by hitting .339 with a .397 onbase percentage and .585 in his final 21 regular-season games. And then he came through with some crucial hits in the 2012 NLDS triumph over Washington. Craig, in his second full season, batted .307 with 22 homers, 76 RBIs, and a .522 slug. And he batted .400 with a .680 slug when hitting with runners in scoring position. Oomph.

In his first full season (and still a rookie) Carpenter batted .294 with a high onbase percentage and .463 slug and performed 26 percent above league average offensively. The best was yet to come.) In his sophomore season, Craig hit .307 with a .522 slug.

Oh, and before I forget: two important rookie pitchers entered the building: Joe Kelly (age 24) and Trevor Rosenthal (age 22.) Meanwhile, Lance Lynn, in his second big-league season, moved into the starting rotation.

2013: The Cardinals won the NL pennant with a big push from an impressive cast of rookies. There were two terrific rookie starting pitchers, Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller. There was an intimidating procession of rookie relievers: Rosenthal (still a rookie), Kevin Siegrist, Carlos Martinez, and Seth Maness. Joe Kelly was in his second season. Lynn was in his second season as a member of the rotation. In the 2013 postseason, rookie Cardinal pitchers compiled a 2.42 ERA in 67 innings, went 5-2, and had four quality starts and four saves. For the regular season, rookie Cardinal hurlers led the majors in WAR and Win Probability Added.

Wacha had a remarkable debut. During the regular season and postseason combined, Wacha went 8-2 in 95 innings and pitched to a 2.43 ERA. As a rookie starter, Shelby Miller was 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA in the regular season before manager Mike Matheny inexplicably declined to use him in the postseason except for one meaningless inning. In total, six St. Louis rookie pitchers combined for a 2.42 ERA in 46 postseason appearances … and their tally included five starts, five wins, 41 relief appearances (2.23 ERA) and four saves.

The rookie position players included Matt Adams and Kozma. Adams slugged .503 and bopped 17 homers in 296 at-bats. Kozma, still a rookie, was in the starting lineup because the Cardinals needed his defense. They weren’t concerned with his offense because the ’13 team had plenty of it. The defense was the priority at a key position, and Kozma ranked third among major-league shortstops in defensive runs saved that season.

Matt Carpenter, in his second full season, batted .318 with a .392 OBP and .481 slug. He led the league in doubles and runs scored. He was voted to the All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and finished fourth in the NL most valuable player voting. From 2012 through 2018, Carpenter batted .275 with an excellent .377 onbase percentage and .471 slug. And his overall offensive performance was 33 percent above the league average. One of Luhnow’s smartest draft choices.

2014: The rookie position players were second baseman Kolten Wong, and outfielder Randal Grichuk. Adams, in his second season, slugged 15 homers and blasted a home run off Clayton Kershaw in the NLDS that lifted the Cardinals into the 2014 NLCS. Grichuk, who came over in a trade for David Freese, hit two postseason homers that fall. (Since the Cardinals didn’t draft Grichuk you can disregard the mention of him if you’d like, but the front office coveted him. And I’m just pointing out the impact of rookies.) Rookie outfielder Oscar Tavares walloped a dramatic home run to beat the Giants in LCS Game 2, but died in a DUI wreck on Oct. 26 at the age of 22.

Pitchers? Carlos Martinez and Siegrist were technically still rookies … and more rookies came along to pitch in including starting pitcher Marco Gonzalez and reliever Sam Freeman. Gonzales worked six games in relief during the ‘14 postseason. In all, including the postseason, St. Louis rookie pitchers contributed 191 mostly goos innings in 2014.

2015: An offense that often starved for runs that season got a boost from eight  different rookie position players, with the most plate appearances going to  Grichuk (still a rookie), Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham and Greg Garcia. But as a group the eight rookie hitters batted .278 with a .489 slug percentage in 856 at-bats. The rookies clubbed 31 homers, 53 doubles, 16 triples and cashed in 119 RBIs. Among the 30 MLB teams that played rookies, the 2015 St. Louis rookies led the majors in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. And in park-and-league adjusted runs created, the rookies performed an MLB-best 26 percent above league average offensively.

On the other side: four rookie pitchers teamed for 72 and ⅔ innings of relief, appearing in 71 games and contributing a 6-4 record and 2.97 ERA. They chipped in on a St. Louis pitching staff that led the majors with a 2.99 starting-pitching ERA, an overall 2.92 ERA, and were third in bullpen ERA (2.72.)

Luhnow left the Cardinals to become GM of the Houston Astros following the 2011 season. But his scouting-development system was still in place inside Cardinals headquarters, and some of the analysts he’d hired stayed on in St. Louis for a while.

Here’s a list of the recognizable players drafted by the Luhnow operation, and you will note that some were traded away in deals that brought Matt Holliday and Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis.

I cut the list off after the 2015 draft, when the Luhnow Effect began to taper off …  while. Though in fairness to Randy Flores — himself a St. Louis draft choice — the Cardinals have been drafting some good pitchers and players under his  supervision.

Position players: Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Brendan Ryan, Colby Rasmus, Jon Jay, Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Paul DeJong, Shane Robinson, Pete Kozma, Daniel Descalso, Tony Cruz, Bret Wallace (traded for Holliday), Carson Kelly (traded for Goldschmidt), Stephen Piscotty, Patrick Wisdom, Oscar Mercado, Luke Voit, Harrison Bader.

Pitchers: Jason Motte, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Ryan Helsley, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Reyes, Mitchell Boggs, Luke Weaver (traded for Goldschmidt), Jordan Hicks, Jake Woodford, Adam Ottavino, Chris Perez, Sam Freeman, Kevin Siegrist, Mitch Harris, Seth Maness, Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales, Trevor Megill (Milwaukee’s current closer), Daniel Ponce De Leon, Austin Gomber (traded for Arenado.)

There were also the international signings of young players including Carlos Martinez, Aledmys Diaz and Oscar Tavares. Just to name a few.

I know this was a lot for you to read and absorb. I appreciate you for sticking with it if you made it this far.

If I missed anyone, I apologize for the error. This was a day-long project for me, and my eyes were bleary, so please pardon my typos. I just wanted to keep grinding it out.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Bernie Miklasz

For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.

While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.

Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.