THE REDBIRD REVIEW
We were treated to an old-time 1960s style pitching duel on Tuesday at Busch Stadium, a compelling show that left hitters from the Pirates and Cardinals foraging for runs.
It wasn’t quite Bob Gibson vs. Bob Veale in a fierce, complete-game battle among right-handers. But this matchup was about as good as it gets in our modern times.
There was the mountainous and dominant Pittsburgh rookie Paul Skenes. There was the guileful, mustachioed Miles Mikolas. Skenes used power and might. Miles used devious, pitch-mixing, slight-of-hand mischief. One dude looked like a lumberjack. The other resembled a magician. It was highly entertaining and a delight to watch.
The awesome 22 year old Skenes pitched 6 and ⅓ scoreless innings, conceding five hits and striking out eight of 23 batters. The artistic Mikolas, 13 years older, outdid the intimidating Skenes with seven shutout innings of one-hit wonderment.
Cardinals fans showed their appreciation for the Pittsburgh phenom by giving Skenes an extensive standing ovation as he left the mound and walked to the dugout after being relieved with one out in the seventh.
Skenes was treated warmly despite striking out 38.4 percent of the Cardinals who came to bat against him.
“I’ll be honest, I didn’t really notice it in the moment,” Skenes said on SportsNet Pittsburgh after the game. “I was kind of just (ticked) that I gave up a hit. But I got a text about it. Looking back, I realize what happened. They are cool fans.”
Wrote Pittsburgh baseball writer Jason Mackey: “I defend St. Louis a lot. Love every trip I get there. Great baseball city — and you saw it with the standing ovation Cardinals fans gave Paul Skenes. Really cool.”
ABOUT THE GAME: The Pirates prevailed 2-1 for several reasons:
1. The Pittsburgh bullpen did not cave. The most dependable St. Louis emergency extinguisher, Ryan Helsley, had a rare faux paus and was mussed for two runs in the ninth.
2. The Cardinals couldn’t put a dent in Skenes, and managed only a solo homer (in the ninth) by Nolan Gorman in 2 and ⅔ innings against the Bucs bullpen.
3. The Cardinals have a non-threatening bench that poses little risk to the ERA health of opposing pitchers.
4. The Cardinals experienced another glaring failure when wielding a bat with runners in scoring position. They could not strike the blow to take down the Jolly Roger. Pittsburgh won this game despite chipping their way to just three hits in 28 at-bats. Sad.
5. The loss left the Redbirds with a 5-8 mark this season against NL Central brethren. Going back to late in the 2022 season St. Louis has won only five of 18 games from Pittsburgh. This tells us a lot about the gradual decline of St. Louis baseball.
ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 4-7 since winning a series at Cincinnati in late May, a downturn that’s dropped them to 31-34 … St. Louis is 15-15 at home this season and has a 50-61 record at Busch since the start of the 2023 campaign … the Cardinals are 26-39 in NL Central games since the start of last season.
Tuesday’s loss flung the Cardinals back into last place in the NL Central, and lifted the Pirates into second place in the division. The Pirates (32-34) are 6 and ½ games behind the first-place Brewers and have a half-game edge on the Reds (32-35), Cubs (32-35) and Cardinals. The Cards have the poorest winning percentage (.477) in the NL Central.
SCROUNGING FOR RUNS: In Tuesday’s loss the Cardinals were held to three runs or fewer in a game for the 33rd time this season. And their record in those low-output instances is 7-26.
RISP RUINATION: The Cardinals went 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position in Tuesday’s defeat, stranding at least one runner on second or third base in four different innings – the fifth, seventh, eighth and ninth. The fellers are hitting an NL-worst .212 in RISP opportunities this season. As I’ve mentioned several times, the Cardinals have never had an RISP batting average worse than .232 during a full season in franchise history – going back to 1912, when the RISP stat was first tracked.
REPERCUSSIONS: The Cardinals are still searching for runs-a-plenty on a consistent basis. The horrendous .212 with runners in scoring position is a huge factor in their per–game average of 3.92 runs. That’s 14th in the National League, ahead of the Marlins (3.59.) The Cards are 11th in the NL in onbase percentage, and 12th in slugging and OPS.
BENCH STENCH: With injuries pushing several players into more regular lineup roles, the Cardinals don’t do much with their stripped-down bench. Manager Oli Marmol has been short of attractive options for most of the season, and the weak bench was once again a factor in Tuesday’s loss.
“You deal with what you’ve got,” Marmol told media after the game.
* STL pinch hitters have the worst batting average in the majors at .122. They’ve gone 5 for 41 with two RBIs and a 28 percent strikeout rate.
* Cards pinch hitters are 0 for 12 with since May 27.
* With runners in scoring position, their pinch hitters are 1 for 11 with two walks and four strikeouts.
* When substitutes enter the game, they’ve collectively produced 12 hits in 67 at-bats for a .179 average, two homers and six RBIs. And the subs have struck out 25 percent of the time.
URGENT CARE: The Cardinals really could use a right-handed hitter who plays the outfield. Their current outfield set up has left-handed hitters Brendan Donovan, Michael Siani and Michael Siani plus switch-hitter Dylan Carlson. It leaves the team vulnerable to left-handed pitching. STL outfielders are batting .187 with a .271 OBP, .252 slug and one homer in 245 plate appearances this season. The eventual return of injured switch-hitter Tommy Edman might help.
AS THE ROTATION TURNS: The Cardinals have a 3.22 starting-pitching ERA in their 21 games since May 18. That ERA ranks 6th overall and 3rd in the National League over that time behind the Phillies and Pirates. The Cards also have the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors (25%) by starting pitchers since May 18. And over the same time span, the .203 batting average against Cardinal starters is tied for the second lowest in MLB.
For the season the St. Louis rotation’s ERA of 4.22 ranks 19th overall. But before that, that earned-run average was 4.79, so we’ve definitely seen progress. In 20 combined starts since May 18, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Andre Pallante have a 2.97 ERA collectively over 106 innings.
I CAN SEE FOR MILES AND MILES: Mikolas is rolling. The righty continued his season turnaround with seven innings of scoreless, one-hit pitching to subdue the Pirates, but the team’s offense didn’t back him up in a 2-1 loss. Here are some notables from the Mikolas File:
+ Mikolas has logged four consecutive quality starts and has a 2.88 ERA in those outings.
+ Mikolas has pitched to a 3.00 ERA over his last six starts, allowing an opponent batting average of .184 with a .239 OBP and .328 slug.
+ Only five NL starters have more quality starts than Mikolas in 2024. With his streak of 4 consecutive quality starts, Mikolas is tied for the NL lead with six QS since May 1.
+ Mikolas has had one bad start – out of nine – since April 29. In his eight good starts during this time, his ERA is 3.20.
+ His quality-start percentage this season (57%) matches Dylan Cease and is just below Shota Imanaga (58%).
+ The number of quality starts for each starter: Mikolas 8, Kyle Gibson 7, Sonny Gray 4, Lance Lynn 3, and Andre Pallante 1. There were no QS in the 11 combined starts made by Steven Matz, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson.
WASTING QUALITY STARTS: This is a problem for the Cardinals in 2024. When having the benefit of a quality start, the team is only 14-9 in those games for a .608 winning percentage. The other 29 major-league teams collectively have a .686 winning percentage in quality starts. The Cardinals have left too many wins on the table by failing to score enough runs to support their quality starts.
Consider this: Mikolas and Gibson have combined for 15 quality starts this season, but the team is only 8-7 in those games. That’s pitiful, and we can’t blame Mikolas and Gibson. In the seven games lost by the Cardinals when given a quality start from Gibson or Mikolas, the St. Louis offense has scored a puny total of 16 runs. That’s an average of 2.28 per game. The Redbirds can’t keep doing this. It will definitely hurt them in what should be a tight race for wild-card spots.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE PIRATES: The other four teams in the NL Central have a .648 win percentage in quality starts. The Pirates have the most quality starts (33) in the division and have won 21 of those outings. No other NL Central team has won more than 15 games when handed a quality start. If the rotation can stay healthy, Pittsburgh’s superb starting pitching should keep the club in the postseason race all season. Generating offense is the foremost challenge. The Pirates rank 11th in the NL with 4.11 runs per game and are 13th in the NL in slugging, batting average and OPS.
NOLAN GORMAN: Tuesday’s late homer was Gorman’s 15th of the season. In his last 21 games Gorman has homered 10 times, batted .280 and slugged .707. Gorman’s 10 home runs lead the National League since May 27. Only Aaron Judge (Yankees) has hit more homers, 14, since then.
HURLY BURLY: Alec Burleson had three of the Cardinals’ eight hits against the Pirates. In doing so he raised his batting average to .283 on the season. Burly is slugging .455 overall. In his last 30 games he’s batted .311 with a .529 slug. Burleson and Nolan Arenado combined for four of the team’s five hits off Skenes. Arenado is 5 for 12 with a double in his last three games.
BOTTOM OF THE LINEUP: No. 6, 7, 8 and 9 spots on the St. Louis lineup card went a combined 1 for 14 with a walk. And the spots went 0 for 6 with three strikeouts with runners in scoring position. This group consisted of Brendan Donovan, Matt Carpenter, Pedro Pages, Michael Siani and pinch hitters Jose Fermin and Ivan Herrera.
AS OTHERS SEE THE CARDINALS: Here’s the view of ESPN.com baseball author Bradford Doolittle.
“The Cardinals haven’t really done anything well this season,” he wrote. “Still, the NL requires that six teams make the playoffs, and so St. Louis has returned to the ranks of contention. In some ways, the Redbirds have more reason than the other middling teams to think they can make a sustained run, simply because of positive regression. St. Louis has hovered near .500 despite a poor run differential, a lengthy injury to Willson Contreras and lackluster starts by both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. If you take some degree of self-correction in those areas and a step forward for either Jordan Walker or Dylan Carlson, that’s a wild-card bid in this league, circa 2024. Playoff fever — catch it!”
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie hosts an opinionated sports-talk show on 590 The Fan, KFNS. It airs 3-6 p.m. Monday through Thursday and 4-6 p.m. Friday. Stream live or access the podcast on 590thefan.com or the 590 The Fan St. Louis app.
Please follow Bernie on Threads @miklaszb
For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz via 590thefan.com or through your preferred podcast platform. Follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link.
Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.
For the last 36 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans.
While best known for his voice as the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch for 26 years, Bernie has also written for The Athletic, Dallas Morning News and Baltimore News American. A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has hosted radio shows in St. Louis, Dallas, Baltimore and Washington D.C.
Bernie, his wife Kirsten and their cats reside in the Skinker-DeBaliviere neighborhood of St. Louis.
