Bernie’s Redbird Review: It Feels Like The Cardinals Are Riders On A Downbound Train.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals lost again Monday, going into the automaton mode to accept a 6-1 beatdown by the Reds in Cincinnati. This was a bad one. It was also the new normal. By now, no one should be surprised to see the Cardinals get flattened in a game.

I know that my Bruce Springsteen references can be annoying (sorry), but in thinking about the path the Cardinals are on, I’m hearing a song in my head. It’s actually one of my favorites.

Downbound Train.

To quote from the song: “Don’t you feel like you’re a rider on a downbound train?”

Current Trend: 12-17 record since July 10 for a .414 winning percentage that ranks 26th overall and 13th in the National League. The St. Louis run differential in those 29 games is minus 20.

Offense: During the 12-17 freeze, the Cardinal offense has scored four or fewer runs 18 times. And their record in the 18 low-scoring games is 3-15.

Overall pitching: since July 10 the Cardinals have a staff ERA of 4.88, which ranks 22nd overall. During the team’s 33-18 runaway stretch that began May 12, the staff ERA was the fifth-best in the majors at 3.67.

Starting pitching: During the 33-18 run, the Cardinal starters posted a 4.20 ERA that was right around the league average. But in this 12-17 downturn, their starter ERA ranks 23rd overall at an abysmal 4.98.

The Bullpen: Up until July 10, the St. Louis relievers ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 ERA, and had allowed only 26.2 percent of runners on base to score. That was the seventh-best strand rate in the majors. But as the Cardinals have sputtered in losing 17 of their last 29 games, bullpen ERA ranks 21st at 4.72, and are 26th in percentage of baserunners (33.3%) that come around to score.

The Defense: The Reds went 3-for-3 in stealing bases Monday, and this team’s horrendous inability to stop the opponent’s running game is an embarrassment. The Cardinals have been victimized for the most steals (113) in the majors this season. And their catcher caught-stealing rate of 14 percent ranks 29th among the 30 teams. The Redbirds are otherwise good in the field season, improving to seventh in majors with 33 defensive runs saved. But why is this team so utterly helpless to stop runners from swiping bags? The catchers get the blame, but too many people seem to forget that pitchers play a role in letting runners go for easy steals. All I know is this: the problem is extreme and isn’t getting better. The Cardinals haven’t done a damn thing to slow opponents down.

OK, now go ahead and pick out something from that pile that tells you the Cardinals are about to soar. Their offense is shut down too many times, and too easily. Their struggle to cash in runners in scoring position is an abomination. Opponents run like wild on the bases with no deterrent to steal sacks.

The quality of the starting pitching has declined, and a proud but worn bullpen is more conquerable. In Monday’s lopsided loss, the frustrated manager Oli Marmol was ejected for the fourth time this season — hollering about the strike zone — but the theatrics failed to fire up the squad.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 60-59 on the campaign, and 4-7 in August. According to the projections at Fangraphs, the Redbirds have a 4.6 percent crack at winning the NL Central and a 6.6 percent shot of claiming a wild-card spot. STL’s overall probability for making the playoffs is 11.2 percent; eight NL teams have better odds than that.

WAITIN’ ON A SONNY GRAY: OK, there was another Springsteen song-title reference – a play on words if you will, and I couldn’t resist. But we are waiting on Sonny Gray to live up to the advance billing of a No. 1 starter. The Reds bludgeoned Gray for three homers and six earned runs in five innings. He’s been struck for five earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts and has a 5.86 ERA over the seven outings. I’ll have more on Gray in my second column of the day – which will arrive in another hour or so.

NO-SHOW OFFENSE: The Cardinals had multiple chances to break through on lefty Reds starter Andrew Abbott, including bases-full opportunities in the second and third innings. But for all of that, they scratched out only one run on an RBI single by Nolan Arenado in the third. Here’s the saddest stat: after Paul Goldschmidt’s infield single with two outs in the third, the Cardinals went 1 for 21 over the final six-plus innings of their loss.

Cardinal hitters struck out nine times in the game. The Cards were 2 for 7 with men on base and 0 for 2 with the bases loaded. The Cardinals have the worst batting average by an NL team (.173) when hitting with the bases loaded this season.

ALLERGIC REACTION TO LEFTIES: Andrew Abbott didn’t have much trouble disposing of a couple of jams and gave up one run in 6 and ⅔ innings. This season lefty starters have a 3.84 ERA against St. Louis and have permitted a .679 OPS.

Marmol loaded his starting lineup with seven right-handed hitters. They went 5 for 20 (.250) with two walks against the lefty Abbott, but with little damage. Four of the five hits were singles, and Paul Goldschmidt had a double. The top three hitters in the lineup were all RH bats —  Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras and Tommy Pham. But they combined to go 1 for 11 with four strikeouts.

This season STL’s right-handed hitters rank no better than 20th in the majors in the pertinent hitting categories when competing against left-handed pitchers. The worst parts are the .388 slugging percentage (24th), 21 home runs (24th) and .700 OPS (24th).

BIRD BYTES

1) The Reds (58-61) are two games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

2) The Cardinals are 17-20 against NL Central rivals this season. But it hasn’t gone well as of late; the Cardinals have lost six of their last eight division games, and are 4-8 against NL Central rivals since the last series before the All-Star break.

3) The Cards are 29-32 on the road.

4) The first-place Brewers have a deeper lineup than the Cardinals. Which is stating the obvious. But since their best hitter, Christian Yelich, went to the IL on July 24, the Crew has averaged 5.2 runs per game, bashed 23 homers, hit .269, reached base 34 percent of the time, and slugged .442. Milwaukee is 9-8 since Yelich went down. The Cardinals are 7-11 since Yelich went down. And over that time, the Cards’ offensive numbers are weaker than Milwaukee’s.

5) Nolan Arenado keeps getting his hits, and I’m pleased to acknowledge that. He’s leading the Cardinals with a .341 batting average in August, which increased his batting average to .271 on the season.

6) But Arenado remains stuck on 11 home runs for the season. He hasn’t gone deep in his last 15 games. This season 99 big-league hitters have more home runs than Arenado. And 105 batters have posted a higher slugging percentage than Arenado’s .388. Arenado’s slug is .357 over his last 15 games. Arenado has only four homers since the start of July.

7) Since becoming a Cardinal in 2021, Arenado has hit six or more home runs in seven different months, and has put up at least five home runs in a month four times. This season his best home-run total for a month, so far, is four. He did so in May and July.

8) Tommy Pham has cooled, having gone 1 for 14 in his last four games.

9) Looking forward to seeing how Erick Fedde will fare in his start inside the Great American Small Park this evening.

10) JJ Wetherholt, the seventh overall pick in this year’s MLB draft, has a .452 onbase percentage and .433 slug in his first 10 games for the Cardinals’ Class A affiliate in Palm Beach. In his last two games, Wetherhold had three hits, two walks and five RBIs. How soon can he get to St. Louis? OK, I’m kidding … I think.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.