Bernie’s Redbird Review: It Was A Good Week For The Cardinals, But Time Is Running Short, And Willson Contreras Is Out. Yikes.

THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals had a good week, going 4-2 while winning two consecutive series against superior teams, Milwaukee and Minnesota.

The success barely moved the needle – and actually, their playoff chances got WORSE. According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals had a 3.9 percent possibility of making the postseason after losing a series to the Dodgers last weekend. And now, despite the positive week against the Brewers and Twins, the Cardinals’ postseason probability had decreased to 3.5% by Monday morning. And the Cardinals are stuck at five games out of the NL’s third wild-card ride.

A lot of this has to do with the schedule. It’s shrinking. The Cardinals, 65-65, begin the new week with only 32 regular-season games remaining on the docket. After playing four against San Diego (here), and three at Yankee Stadium, the Redbirds will be down to 25 games as they arrive in Milwaukee for a three-game series early next week.

So if your team has a significant deficit to erase late in August, and you have a dandy 4-2 week, it doesn’t have much impact because you’re running out of games.

Before winning four of their last five, the Cardinals had scraped to only 13 victories in their 35 previous games. That losing spiral was bad enough, but the damage was especially costly because of the 13-22 stretch that wiped five weeks off the schedule. Realistically, the Cards don’t have the time to recover from something like that. That’s why we see such a little change in their playoff odds.

When the Cardinals are finished playing their 10 games against the Padres (74-58), Yankees (77-54) and Brewers (75-55), they’ll have 22 games to go and will be running out of runway.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Even with the 4-2 mark against the Brewers and Twins, the Cardinals are 9-13 in August for a .409 winning percentage that’s tied with the Rockies for 12th in the National League this month. The Redbirds are also 17-23 since July 10, and that includes a 15-19 record since the All-Star break … the Cardinals are still 14th among 15 National League teams in runs per game (4.09) this season, and now must cope with the loss of Willson Contreras to a broken finger … the Cardinals are 4-1 in the last five despite batting .188 with runners in scoring position with 19 strikeouts in 48 at-bats … the Cardinals are 9 for 54 with RISP (.167) since Aug. 18 … the pitching has been better as of late for St. Louis, but for the season the Cardinals rank 10th in the NL with their yield of 4.52 runs allowed per game … Shildt’s Padres visit Busch Stadium with 24 wins in their last 32 games, and have MLB’s second–best record (24-9) since the All-Star break.

LIFE WITHOUT WILLSON CONTRERAS: It won’t be easy for the Cardinals to lunge for a playoff spot without their best hitter in the lineup. And make no mistake, Contreras has been the best bat on the 2024 Cardinals.

– His wRC+ of 141 is 41 percent above league average offensively and 30 percent better than the next hitter on the list, Alec Burleson.

– In addition to leading the Cardinals in wRC+, Contreras is No. 1 in onbase percentage, which is 40 points higher than any St. Louis regular.

– Contreras has the team’s No. 1 slugging percentage (.468) that’s 16 points above Burleson, who ranks second with a .452 slug.

– Contreras is way above every regular Cardinal with his 848 OPS – which is 86 points higher than Burleson, who ranks second at .762

– The Cardinals are 11th among NL teams in walks this season, but don’t blame Contreras. He has the best walk rate (12.6%) by a STL hitter this season.

– Despite playing in only 84 games because of injuries, Contreras is fourth-best on the Cardinals with 15 homers. And he’s drilled 17 doubles, which is fifth on the team.

Contreras’ only negative stat offensively is his .210 batting average with runners in scoring position. If you want to nitpick that, fine, because that .210 is a fact. But I’ve seen some junk online about how this latest Contreras injury could be a “silver lining” for the Cardinals because the team had a 24-16 record after the catcher was placed on the IL with a broken forearm on May 8.

Here’s why the Cardinals got to winning with Contreras missing: Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt and Ivan Herrera all heated up at the same time. Nolan Arenado wasn’t effective offensively during this period, but the other Cardinals more than made up for it.

With Contreras down and out, seven St. Louis lineup regulars had an wRC+ that went above the league average of 100:

* Nootbaar, 65% above league average
* Donovan, 43% above average
* Burleson, 39% above average
* Winn, 35% above average
* Herrera, 22% above average
* Goldschmidt, 5% above average
* Gorman, 2% above average.

Goldschmidt slugged .431, knocked in 20 runs and had 14 extra-base (including 8 homers) in 37 games. This wasn’t classic Goldschmidt, but during that time he was a much better version of Goldy than we’ve seen for most of 2024.

From May 10 through June 19 – a span of 34 games – Gorman clubbed 12 homers, slugged .549 and drove home 22 runs.

When Contreras started a game at catcher this season, the Cardinals were right around .500, which is in line with the starts made by rookies Herrera and Pedro Pages. OK, so what’s so freakin’ wonderful about that? Shouldn’t the Cardinals have a much better record with Contreras behind the plate? Answer: you’re looking at it the wrong way.

The Cardinals aren’t nearly as capable offensively without Contreras, period. Don’t be misled by their 24-16 record when he was lost for the first time this season.

The Cardinals had a winning record with Contreras on the mend because just about everybody in the lineup was rolling and delivering payoffs offensively. Other than that, when has that happened this season?

Accordingly, if the Cardinals have a winning record with Contreras down this time with a broken finger, it will be because other Redbirds locked in and got the job done instead of being liabilities.

This season, in plate appearances made as a catcher (and not at DH), Contreras has the best wRC+ in the majors at the position. His wRC+ as a catcher is 63 percent above league average offensively. And his hitting line when working at catcher is excellent, with a .291 average, .412 onbase percentage, and .525 slug. Few catchers can provide as much offensive impact as Contreras. So don’t be conned by some click-bait trolling that implies the Cardinals are somehow better off without Contreras.

OK, WHAT ABOUT CONTRERAS AND DEFENSE? This is a pertinent question, because Contreras struggled in a few areas in 2023, his first season with the Cardinals. But Contreras has improved in 2024. That doesn’t mean he’s a great catcher defensively, but he’s worked hard to polish his skills behind the plate – and compared to 2023, the results are more positive in 2024.

– Contreras is slightly below league average in pitch framing … but is a lot better than a year ago.

– He’s above average at blocking pitches.

– His throwing arm is rated among the top 15 in the majors.

– His pop time isn’t as good as Pages, but it’s better than Herrera’s.

– Caught-stealing rate: Contreras 23%, Pages 20%, Herrera 7%.

– Catcher ERA: Pages 4.00, Herrera 4.22, Contreras 4.23. I don’t see anything glaring there. Contreras has been behind the plate for 650 more plate appearances than Pages, and for 320 more plate appearances than Herrera. A larger sample size matters more, and there just isn’t that much of a gap between the three catchers.

What about individual starting pitchers?

This is an interesting debate. Among baseball analysts, there’s a difference of opinion on the validity of catcher ERA. That’s understandable, because so many factors go into it. Who is the pitcher? Is the pitcher on a roll, or in a slump? Is the pitcher aging, like Adam Wainwright in 2023 – or is the pitcher a rookie or inexperienced and still learning? How does the team play defense behind a pitcher?

Morning research:

+ When Sonny Gray pitches to Contreras this season, Gray’s ERA is an excellent 2.89. With Pages, it’s 5.62. With Herrera, it’s 4.44.

+ When Andre Pallante pitches to Contreras he has a 2.65 ERA. With Herrera it’s a 6.00 ERA. And it’s a 4.06 ERA with Peges.

+ With Contreras as his catcher this season, Miles Mikolas had a 3.66 ERA. But that Mikolas ERA is over 6.00 with Pages or Herrera catching.

+ Kyle Gibson has a 5.05 ERA with Contreras, and a 1.59 ERA with Pages. It could be that Gibson and Pages have something going and are in a positive synch; the pitcher-catcher thing goes like that some years and is nothing unusual. But just because Gibson has an inflated ERA with Contreras, it does mean Contreras stinks.

+ Lance Lynn has a 4.88 ERA with Contreras. Lynn’s ERA is much better (2.42) with Pages. But how much should we read into that? Lynn is inconsistent, and we never know what to expect from him, start to start. Lynn had been pitching on a sore knee for a time before he had to go on the IL. I don’t think that 4.88 is an indictment of how Contreras catches him. And with the new technology, pitchers have the option to call their own pitches.

With Contreras, any of his defensive flaws are relatively minor, because he compensates with his elite catcher-position offense. And yes, pitchers need run support. The Cardinals are 16-10 this season when Contreras drives in a run, 9-5 when he homers.

SONNY GRAY’S ROAD RAGE: It happened again Friday, when the Twins pounded Gray for two home runs and five earned runs in six innings. There’s no reason to tip-toe around this: Gray is a terrible pitcher on the road in 2024. And his home-road splits are preposterous.

At Busch Stadium, Gray has a 2.72 ERA, has allowed four home runs and opponents have slugged only .310 against him. Gray has been chipped for an average of 0.5 home runs per nine innings at Busch.

In 11 road starts, Gray has been ripped for a 5.62 ERA and 16 home runs, and opponents have blasted him for a .528 slug. Gray has been attacked for an average of 2.2 per nine innings in road starts.

When Gray works on the road, left-handed hitters have a .547 slug against him, and right-handed batters have slugged .508.

I don’t want to numb you with too many numbers here, but I looked into the performance of specific Gray pitches when he’s on the road. It ain’t handsome:

Four-seam fastball: six homers, .388 average, .837 slug and a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Sinker: six homers, .289 average, .711 slug and a 59.3 percent hard-hit rate.

Cutter: two homers, .286 average, .524 slug, 47.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Changeup: Only one homer because he doesn’t use it as much as other pitches. Still, the results are awful: .353 average, .706 slug, 44 percent hard-hit rate.

Gray’s only effective pitch on the road is his sweeper. But he doesn’t throw it as often as he should. Gray keeps trying to defeat hitters with four-seamers and sinkers … and frankly, the approach is a disaster.

This season he’s thrown 377 four-seam fastballs and sinkers combined on the road. And putting together the offensive stats generated when he uses those pitchers, hitters have smashed their way to 12 homers in 94 at-bats – or a home run every 7.8 at-bats. And against the sinker or four-seamer they’ve hit .340 with a .777 slug and 48 percent hard-hit rate. This is one step above batting practice!

Now, then … Gray has used his sweeper pitch 182 times on the road this season and opponents are failing against it with a .171 average, .237 slug and a 60 percent strikeout rate. And the whiff-swing rate against the Gray sweeper is an astonishing 44.3 percent.

I don’t know. I’m an idiot, of course. But maybe the Cardinals and Gray should take a look at their pitch-selection choices on the road? Just a thought.

Among 86 major-league starters that have made at least 11 road starts this season, Gray ranks 82nd in ERA, 84th in opponents’ slugging percentage, and is tied for 84th in home runs allowed per nine innings.

I’ll be back with more, later this afternoon.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

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Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.